Monthly Digger - August, 2005

[Ander]

All that has to happen for the SKI system to give its true bull market signal is for prices to not drop for two days. USERX is 8.29 today. I played with the SKI signal tracker thing and if I put in 8.29 for thursday and friday, it generates the true bull market signal.

 

If prices fall a bit, but still hold the upper 7 or low 8 range, then it generates the signal 1-2 days later. Prices have to pretty much crash now to not give the buy signal.

 

And I think USERX was up only 4.8% today.

[Ander]

Ah, GSS sucks and I hate it.

 

When are they finally going to get some good earnings?

[traderfromhell]

Ah, GSS sucks and I hate it. 

 

When are they finally going to get some good earnings?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

I wouldn't worry about the earnings. GSS CDE are going to fly long term. Others too but for some reason those seem to be the ones the borkers will be pushing down the road. Came to me while I slept a la Mahendra.

[bearvest]

Let?s say I have my wave?s counts and projection right then HUI is going to stop around 250-260 then head south back to 200 which will complete huge wave 2 then one should see a rocket ride.

 

There is no gain without some pain. Greed will kill u eventually. Buying trash will always make u poor.

 

Don?t forget you?re buying gold and commodities because there is going to be inflation. Deflation crowd should pack up and load with cash.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Feed:

 

If I've got your pattern right, you're looking for a triangle, are you not?

 

It would be wave 4, not 2. The 2000-2003 rally would only be 3 waves of 5.

[Ander]

I wouldn't worry about the earnings. GSS CDE are going to fly long term.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Really? You dont think its goign to tank back to 3 tomorrow?

[ThorAss]

Well I can't say I'm pleased with myself but I look at it like this. I used to have 2 edges:

 

1} I was a full-time trader and could take advantage of any opportunity on things I followed.

 

2} I had timing models that really really worked.

 

Unfortunately since I now have a fool time job I now only have 1 edge. Stupid job! Anyway, my Hooey timing model last gave a BUY signal on July 20 at 194.1 after selling the previous day about a point lower. A meaningless whopsaw.

The system generated a potential SELL signal (a very weak one) to be executed on Aug 2 (Tue). However, the condition for that SELL (a lower low) was not achieved and by the end of the day the SELL had been negated. Well we all know what happened next. It's funny that the non-SELL was the staging pad for a massive rally (1+ days). Lots of short-covering and panic-buying not wanting to miss the BIG MOVE. But that doesn't mean it won't happen or that it will for that matter. To me all that matters is the timing. .... Well that and EXECUTION. Still the good thing about the market is there is always another opportunity around the next bend.

 

Anyway it's like Voltaire wrote in Candide, "Oh shegere, desire sensa cugliones!" No guarantee on the spelling there but if you understand Italian, you probably know what I mean. If not, I think it translates as, "Oh what a travesty, to be without testicles."

[traderfromhell]

Well I can't say I'm pleased with myself but I look at it like this. I used to have 2 edges:

 

1} I was a full-time trader and could take advantage of any opportunity on things I followed.

 

2} I had timing models that really really worked.

 

Unfortunately since I now have a fool time job I now only have 1 edge. Stupid job!    Anyway, my Hooey timing model last gave a BUY signal on July 20 at 194.1 after selling the previous day about a point lower. A meaningless whopsaw.

The system generated a potential SELL signal (a very weak one) to be executed on Aug 2 (Tue). However, the condition for that SELL (a lower low) was not achieved and by the end of the day the SELL had been negated. Well we all know what happened next. It's funny that the non-SELL was the staging pad for a massive rally (1+ days). Lots of short-covering and panic-buying not wanting to miss the BIG MOVE. But that doesn't mean it won't happen or that it will for that matter. To me all that matters is the timing. .... Well that and EXECUTION.    Still the good thing about the market is there is always another opportunity around the next bend.

 

Anyway it's like Voltaire wrote in Candide, "Oh shegere, desire sensa cugliones!" No guarantee on the spelling there but if you understand Italian, you probably know what I mean. If not, I think it translates as, "Oh what a travesty, to be without testicles."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Thor you rarely if ever disappoint.

[The CoinGuy]

Well I can't say I'm pleased with myself but I look at it like this. I used to have 2 edges:

 

1} I was a full-time trader and could take advantage of any opportunity on things I followed.

 

2} I had timing models that really really worked.

 

Unfortunately since I now have a fool time job I now only have 1 edge. Stupid job!? ? Anyway, my Hooey timing model last gave a BUY signal on July 20 at 194.1 after selling the previous day about a point lower. A meaningless whopsaw.

The system generated a potential SELL signal (a very weak one) to be executed on Aug 2 (Tue). However, the condition for that SELL (a lower low) was not achieved and by the end of the day the SELL had been negated. Well we all know what happened next. It's funny that the non-SELL was the staging pad for a massive rally (1+ days). Lots of short-covering and panic-buying not wanting to miss the BIG MOVE. But that doesn't mean it won't happen or that it will for that matter. To me all that matters is the timing. .... Well that and EXECUTION.? ? Still the good thing about the market is there is always another opportunity around the next bend.

 

Anyway it's like Voltaire wrote in Candide, "Oh shegere, desire sensa cugliones!" No guarantee on the spelling there but if you understand Italian, you probably know what I mean. If not, I think it translates as, "Oh what a travesty, to be without testicles."

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Thor you rarely if ever disappoint.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

I'll have to agree. Thor's been a real pleasure to read the last few weeks.

 

Best,

 

TCG

 

--> Exit Stage Right...

[bearvest]

Thor:

 

This rally came right out of the blue. Bearish divergence on MACD and a bear flag.

 

But there's no doubting it, I believe.

 

Here's Carver's ultra-bullish count. Feed and I don't entirely agree, but it sure looks sweet.

[traderfromhell]

Thor:

 

This rally came right out of the blue. Bearish divergence on MACD and a bear flag.

 

But there's no doubting it, I believe.

 

Here's Carver's ultra-bullish count. Feed and I don't entirely agree, but it sure looks sweet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

This is the breakout we have all been waiting for. Do we buy the retrace or...

[bearvest]

Dollar:

 

Seems I should have kept a better eye on this chart.

[traderfromhell]

Dollar:

 

Seems I should have kept a better eye on this chart.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Looks like 85.50-86 should support any decline in the USD. That goes and it's curtains.

[Old Habits]

Well

me and seven of eleven have been buying MS 64 plus coins as fast as we could find them for the last year

So I guess we would be sorry if it is finished because you can never have enough

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Ageka - I've got quite a few MS64 $20 St. Gaudins, bought on the premise that over the bull run they would end up seeing greater appreciation. So far, that has not been the case and I'm beginning to regret not having bought bullion instead. I'd like to get your thoughts.

 

Ander - if GSS heads back to 3 tommorrow I will buy it. I'm thinking that this stuff may start trading based on FUTURE earnings.

[traderfromhell]

Well

me and seven of eleven have been buying MS 64 plus coins as fast as we could find them for the last year

So I guess we would be sorry if it is finished because you can never have enough

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Ageka - I've got quite a few MS64 $20 St. Gaudins, bought on the premise that over the bull run they would end up seeing greater appreciation. So far, that has not been the case and I'm beginning to regret not having bought bullion instead. I'd like to get your thoughts.

 

Ander - if GSS heads back to 3 tommorrow I will buy it. I'm thinking that this stuff may start trading based on FUTURE earnings.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The Hustle. I can remember way back when there was MS60 and MS65. Another way to separate us from our money.

[bearvest]

Elliott:

 

Predicting a 3rd wave of a 3rd is like walking a tightrope over the Grand Canyon.

 

It's all to easy to slip and fall.

 

The first set of waves was what I predicted, based on MACD and other factors.

 

The second set of waves, however, is what happened.

 

Both result in a third wave, but in diametrically opposite directions.

 

I relied on the technical backdrop, cycle analysis, and the Elliott pattern to guess which way the market would go.

 

I suspect that the South African miner's strike, set for next Sunday, pre-empted the technicals for a while. A shortage of supply could be temporarily bullish, and could support the "rally up, correct down" scenario.