bearvest Posted July 31, 2005 Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 Goldcorp: I am short this stock at an average price of 16.09. Added to my extant short position on Friday at 16.22. I may think differently from many on this board. Remember, that I am a lawyer. When two lawyers argue, they each ask a judge to draw a different conclusion from what is often the same set of facts. My universe is different from that of engineers, scientists, and computer experts. It is devoid of mathematical models. It represents the chaos of daily life. The law seeks to govern the patterns of behavior that must regulate this chaos. To that end, Elliott provides me with an ordering of my marketplace universe. It prescribes a set of laws to which strict adherence must be paid. It establishes parameters as to what is lawful in the markets and what is not. But like all law, there is always the "grey area" in which" honest men may honestly disagree." It is at that point that the lawyer looks for the "weight of the evidence." A while back, I posted a long term chart of GG showing a 9 month expanding triangle. I said that once it hit wave"e" at about $16 plus, it would tumble. I pointed out a second expanding triangle, which I suggested may be a fractal of the larger pattern. Here's that smaller pattern. We can count 4 waves before the expanding diagonal. The diagonal has traced out 5 waves (the 5th can be a "maverick" that "throws over" or frequently truncates). We should head to the lower trendline, according to the pattern. But we've got one more fact. There's that gap just above the trendline waiting to be filled. So, you be the judge. The upper trendline has served as consistent resistance several times at 2 separate degrees of trend, there's a clear Elliott pattern, the technical oscillators are negatively diverging, and there's a technical reason for a decline to gap-fill. I rest my bearish case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 ... alternatives for "ungold" type investments which will outperform cash during the frequent and long flat periods, I'm all ears and horns. A bond fund perchance? Not sure of what you're looking for, but you might want to look at Energy. Gold doesn't power cars yet . Some threads on that board. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Just looking for an investment such as an ETF or fund that will tend to move opposite to the PMS suctor which I would hope would be a superior alternative to shorting gold stocks during the non-bullish phase of the cycles. Maybe a bond fund? Something that would be better than just having the funds sit in cash in my account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 Goldcorp: I am short this stock at an average price of 16.09. Added to my extant short position on Friday at 16.22. I may think differently from many on this board. Remember, that I am a lawyer. When two lawyers argue, they each ask a judge to draw a different conclusion from what is often the same set of facts. My universe is different from that of engineers, scientists, and computer experts. It is devoid of mathematical models. It represents the chaos of daily life. The law seeks to govern the patterns of behavior that must regulate this chaos. To that end, Elliott provides me with an ordering of my marketplace universe. It prescribes a set of laws to which strict adherence must be paid. It establishes parameters as to what is lawful in the markets and what is not. But like all law, there is always the "grey area" in which" honest men may honestly disagree." It is at that point that the lawyer looks for the "weight of the evidence." A while back, I posted a long term chart of GG showing a 9 month expanding triangle. I said that once it hit wave"e" at about $16 plus, it would tumble. I pointed out a second expanding triangle, which I suggested may be a fractal of the larger pattern. Here's that smaller pattern. We can count 4 waves before the expanding diagonal. The diagonal has traced out 5 waves (the 5th can be a "maverick" that "throws over" or frequently truncates). We should head to the lower trendline, according to the pattern. But we've got one more fact. There's that gap just above the trendline waiting to be filled. So, you be the judge. The upper trendline has served as consistent resistance several times at 2 separate degrees of trend, there's a clear Elliott pattern, the technical oscillators are negatively diverging, and there's a technical reason for a decline to gap-fill. I rest my bearish case. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Oh ye, oh ye! All rise! For the Right Honourable bearvest®, Actually I really liked your post. Now, GG is the #1 best stock in my present universe of 20 trading stocks, but I will not be speaking in its defense. Not at this time. GG is a Hooey outperformer but it is still a Hooey related stock. Ih the Hooey is in a downcycle then odds are the GaGa will fall also. I will be buying GG when I like we can move up as per my timing model. Even the most exemplary of characters can do dastardly deeds if the conditions are right. Mind you, I'm not sure I'd like to short it either.I shorted NEM late on Friday covering at the close but that was almost a no-brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted July 31, 2005 Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 ... alternatives for "ungold" type investments which will outperform cash during the frequent and long flat periods, I'm all ears and horns. A bond fund perchance? Not sure of what you're looking for, but you might want to look at Energy. Gold doesn't power cars yet . Some threads on that board. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Just looking for an investment such as an ETF or fund that will tend to move opposite to the PMS suctor which I would hope would be a superior alternative to shorting gold stocks during the non-bullish phase of the cycles. Maybe a bond fund? Something that would be better than just having the funds sit in cash in my account. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thor you'll never get rich chasing yield. I'll stay in cash with the pm money until I see what I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 31, 2005 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 ... alternatives for "ungold" type investments which will outperform cash during the frequent and long flat periods, I'm all ears and horns. A bond fund perchance? Not sure of what you're looking for, but you might want to look at Energy. Gold doesn't power cars yet . Some threads on that board. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Just looking for an investment such as an ETF or fund that will tend to move opposite to the PMS suctor which I would hope would be a superior alternative to shorting gold stocks during the non-bullish phase of the cycles. Maybe a bond fund? Something that would be better than just having the funds sit in cash in my account. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thor you'll never get rich chasing yield. I'll stay in cash with the pm money until I see what I'm looking for. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Okay, thanks! Still think there must be something halfway safe to roll in and out of. Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 31, 2005 Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 A correction in GG down to $14.80 is a far cry from a "plunge" to $12. $14.80 doesn't seem unrealistic, especially if you are looking for a HUI correction down to 185 or so. IMO, HUI could break either way, or just drift in a mini trading range. 191 is the first fib level, that might be as far as it gets. I'm looking for $440 as first stop on gold and $7.40-$7.50 on silver, in the next ten trading days, before a pullback. It's tough to see the HUI crushed too much in that environment. GG was about the only miner that was up on better than average volume on Friday, but overall it's the summer doldrums in terms of volume, which is why I give the HUI a shot at 180-185. When volume does come in, it will be on the upside. We may be fast approaching a time when the technical trading isn't going to be so easy. The pullbacks that "should" come won't. I know it's been easy because I've made money trading long only and I'm the worlds worst trader. FWIW, Hamilton's target on this upcoming run is HUI 330. GFMS, a generally conservative bunch is looking for $500 gold by year end. The buck seems to be running out of steam and the COT data got more bullish this week. COT has been dead nuts for what 2 years now? Maybe it will be different this time. Seasonality chart for buck from gold-eagle: http://www.seasonal-charts.com/cash/currenci/usdx/chart.gif We all know where eachother stand and my optimism gets as old as BV's bearishness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted July 31, 2005 Report Share Posted July 31, 2005 It could also go up??? My ABC count is still in place. Unless 190 gets taken out Large C wave will have 5 waves Goldcorp: I am short this stock at an average price of 16.09. Added to my extant short position on Friday at 16.22. I may think differently from many on this board. Remember, that I am a lawyer. When two lawyers argue, they each ask a judge to draw a different conclusion from what is often the same set of facts. My universe is different from that of engineers, scientists, and computer experts. It is devoid of mathematical models. It represents the chaos of daily life. The law seeks to govern the patterns of behavior that must regulate this chaos. To that end, Elliott provides me with an ordering of my marketplace universe. It prescribes a set of laws to which strict adherence must be paid. It establishes parameters as to what is lawful in the markets and what is not. But like all law, there is always the "grey area" in which" honest men may honestly disagree." It is at that point that the lawyer looks for the "weight of the evidence." A while back, I posted a long term chart of GG showing a 9 month expanding triangle. I said that once it hit wave"e" at about $16 plus, it would tumble. I pointed out a second expanding triangle, which I suggested may be a fractal of the larger pattern. Here's that smaller pattern. We can count 4 waves before the expanding diagonal. The diagonal has traced out 5 waves (the 5th can be a "maverick" that "throws over" or frequently truncates). We should head to the lower trendline, according to the pattern. But we've got one more fact. There's that gap just above the trendline waiting to be filled. So, you be the judge. The upper trendline has served as consistent resistance several times at 2 separate degrees of trend, there's a clear Elliott pattern, the technical oscillators are negatively diverging, and there's a technical reason for a decline to gap-fill. I rest my bearish case. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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