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Weekly Digger - July 24-31,2005


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Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

 

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

 

You're going to close a position because somebody posted a chart that went against your thinking?

 

Geez, if I closed mine every time a chart was posted that didn't agree with my views I'd be in deep shit. Sometimes, I'd have saved myself from losses and sometimes I'd have prevented myself from making gains.

 

Take a look at the volume.

 

The market has a very short memory. I remember last year around this time charts were posted on a weekly basis that said down, down ,down. All the way from 180 to 240.

 

It may go down and it may not, go over to Gold-Eagle and somebody will post a chart that says the exact opposite.

 

Time for me to go back on vacation dudes, this is getting old. Good luck.

 

If I would have seen his post before the trading day yesterday I could have closed with a gain. But after yesterdays action I am flat on those calls, minus the juice.

 

I will see how we open. GG was holding up well so I kept the position open, however the action in NEM, ABX, etc... was/is making me nervous.

 

I am still long shares of GG, CDE, and CEF and will most likely hold through this correction. :ph34r:

 

I am thinking the PMS is about to lead the market down a bit.

 

FYI - I just closed those calls.

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8:19am 07/27/05

Newmont Mining earns rise, top expectations (NEM) By Tomi Kilgore

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) reported second-quarter earnings of $50 million, or 11 cents a share, up from $37 million, or 8 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Excluding discontinued operations, earnings were 19 cents a share, exceeding the average anal cyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of 17 cents a share. Revenue rose to $1.01 billion from last year's $982 million. Gold sales fell to 2.01 million ounces from 2.05 million ounces while the average realized price rose to $421 per ounce from $395 per ounce. For 2005, the gold miner expects gold sales of 8.4 million to 8.5 million ounces. The stock closed Tuesday down 54 cents at $37.40.

dharma

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ThorAss' Economic Whether Report,

 

brought to you by the letter K, and the numbers 1,1,2,3,5,8,.......

 

Well it certainly has been a mild K-wave® winter so far but a cold snap is now forecast. Strong winds will likely cause much structural damage and people are advised to protect themselves and their loved ones. Proper stocks should be bought and stored safely. Primary dwellings should be made secure and whether-proofed.

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And we're back with the sports .... but first a message from our sponsor, the good people at PMS HOLDings; Bob ...

 

Thanks Dave, well it's been quite a season® hasn't it sports fans but I'd like to take a moment if I may to talk seriously about your investments. As those who know us will tell you, we like the old gold and silver to prevail this season and will in the end take the cup but they can be damn streaky. So I'd like to tell you whether how I think they are going to do over the next few games. In a word, bad. Usually at this time of year the players are rested and they play their farking hearts out but this season they look tired. I think they could lose Thursday's game big or maybe Friday's and that would not set them up well for the games to follow.

 

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

 

I'm going to drop the analogy now (Yes it's me ThorAss!) because I think I've got something to say to you. Here's what I see:

 

I see the Hooey not acting well. I was hoping we would start to see patterns similar to last year but instead I see patterns ominously similar to last November at the top. We could be a day or a week away from a confirmation that a significant top was just reached in July. The MACD monthly is suggesting that the top was reached and we are on our way lower but the curve is flattening suggesting a possible bottoming process. However the weeklies are showing exactly the opposite, rising but flattening suggestive of a topping process. The dailies on the other hand are not looking healthy falling and looking to gather speed.

 

The monthly MACDs show the multi-year cycles (in PMS the 8 year cycle dominates) and what I see is very suggestive of a low possibly in 2006 or 2007.

 

The Weekly MACDs is dominated by the 1 year cycle and not surprisingly is rising due to the seasonality. The weeklies are still suggesting that a break higher is very much "in play". A move above 207? Go with it for a likely move much higher by year end. However, if we continue to fish-flop around here we are going to go lower, then we will see whether a breakout this year is still on the cards.

 

The Daily MACDs are what kills it for me and one of the things which has me on the sidelines. A broad top H&S formation which is pointing to an almost immediate decline as early as Thursday.

 

However, accumulation in many stocks is very good especially those with other resource interests outside of PMS. Some of this may be due to overall SM strength especially amongst the large and mega-caps. Somehow I don't find that too encouraging. If most of the rally in May was relief of 0versold conditions in the mid-caps, juniors and micro-caps combined with broad strength supporting the big fish then one prop is gone and the other could soon join it. Sure you can always point to a few stocks that will be doing well even as the majority sink but I'm commenting on the PMS suctor as a hole.

 

Timing Model: Almost completely neutral with only an imperceptibly small Long bias. Best to wait for a break.

 

Seasonality: Favourable: BRIGHT GREEN

8 Year Cycle: Negative: DEEP CRIMSON

Timing: Neutral (Small Long Bias) Call it palest of pale greens.

Conclusion: Except a week rally (50 pts?) starting some time this summer or fall.

 

TATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATATA

 

Okay now I ask you where else can you get such a no nonsense ANALysis of the PMS? (Okay some nonsense). I'm really surprised that more people don't come here.

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Thor,

 

Good move getting out of Kry last week, today its gone down about a third.? Anyone heard what the problem is?? I guess something bad has happened with their mine permit.

 

Crystallex International Corporation (TSX: KRY - News; Amex: KRY - News) President and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Bruce, today confirmed that the Company is not aware of any developments which might account for recent weakness in share price and increased market activity.

 

I'm not a KRY fan (maybe something about Venezuela?). It's had some great movements though for traders.

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Thanks AS, palix and tfh. It was all in the chart and I was a fool to buy it,then even to hold it the very short time I did. If ever there was a chart that telegraphed a stock on the edge of the abyss it was that one.

I was going to write earlier but never got another chance until now but it occured to me that the last thing one wanted to see today was a big push up in the POG which would imply that the boyz were probably getting short again. And this combined with no real follow-through in the PMS shares is ominous to say the least. That being said, ST the Hooey which is untainted by the $1+ drop in PDG is back in buy territory. Still Advance/Decline is not encouraging thus far,and the bigger moves are to the downside. I seem to remember we had this happen in April? where gold was going up and the stocks weren't. The Hooey and Zow to POG ratios plunged. Then gold followed and reached a low after the gold stocks had already bottomed and were working higher. Have to go back and check that.

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thor thanks for your analysis.

looking @the chart pattern, the xau made a top and since has made an abc correction, which we either completed or are in the process of completing. so, i assume that we are going to have another impulse wave up.

as for the 8 year cycle, i am aware of it and it has predicted tops every 8 years like clockwork. however gold only started trading in 71 or 72 . so, if 04 was the top then it has worked for 5 cycles. i would like to see it work for a longer time period, but this is all we have.

i use rsi for my work, and it isnt giving a clue @ this point. corrections serve to confound and confuse and this has been a year so far. i am going w/the bullish case until shown otherwise. dharma

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thor thanks for your analysis.

looking @the chart pattern, the xau made a top and since has made an abc correction, which we either completed or are in the process of completing. so, i assume that we are going to have another impulse wave up.

as for the 8 year cycle, i am aware of it and it has predicted tops every 8 years like clockwork. however gold only started trading in 71 or 72 . so, if 04 was the top then it has worked for 5 cycles.  i would like to see it work for a longer time  period, but this is all we have.

i use rsi for my work, and it isnt giving a clue @ this point.  corrections serve to confound and confuse and this has been a year  so far. i am going w/the bullish case until shown otherwise.  dharma

 

I think it comes down to a question of timeframes. So long as gold is a "standard" then there is no market. Gold just "is" and everything else compares to it just as a metre is "defined". And as you rightly point out we've only been off the "standard" since Tricky Dick and have undoubtedly been bullish since then with some ups and downs. However those ups and downs have come in the major cycle wavelength of 8 years. There is also potential a larger cycle in play that has not had a chance to properly define itself but the period from 1980 to 2000 might be part of a 34-55 year cycle. I kinda think 40 year cycle though. If this is true, on a multi-decade basis we are in an uptrend. However, on an eight year basis we are in a downcycle. I believe that these 2 cycles are destructively interfering which has led to a long flat which could stretch out for another couple of years. Now within that 8 year cycle there are yearly cycles and shorter ones. My trading strategy is to catch the upmoves on the yearly cycles. I will trade more frequently than twice a year as timing is not an exercise in perfection but merely a strategy which should lead to rides on the big moves and a bunch of in and outs for little effect.

Anyway, I don't call a yearly cycle a bull or a bear nor anything shorter so it comes down to an 3-4 year bear (8 year cycle) and a 20? year bull (on a 40? year cycle). Since the original terms bull and bear were intended to define the 4 year cycles of the SM I'd have to say it's a bear so I'm bearish. But that is just a label, a throwaway and neither defines my position, my leanings or my strategy.

The way forward to me is clear, well murkily clear. As your RSIs clearly show, the market is neutral, with the indicators still just in positive territory but flatlined. However, my work suggests another playable move down is ahead before we can stretch higher for this year's move. However, I would likely join the move on an upside break and am prepared to get bucked and whopped a few times, if need be, to be on board when the train leaves the station in Earnest.

The other way for me to come on board is thru the move down. I have several signals which I can use to buy on the daily charts.

 

1. A bullish RSI reversal.

2. A bullish doji set-up.

3. A turn in the short term EMAs combined with a break of first resistance.

4. A short-medium duration bullish EMA cross-over.

 

That is how I get long. Right now I'm flat because the EMAs are forming almost a single flat line.

SoI put it to all y'all, by your definition, am I a bull or a bear? I kinda think of myself as the trader in bearskins with the horns on my head. :D

 

ThorAss

 

PS: I never use candle patterns or bearish RSI reversals for tops (sells) but wait for a neckline break or EMA cross-over. Why? Basically because bottoms tend to be sharp affairs while tops tend to be more protracted. So if you like pointy tops and rounded bottoms try a beauty pageant. :rolleyes:

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