Weekly Digger - July 24-31,2005

[bearvest]

GG:

 

This is the only miner displaying this pattern.

 

Almost all the others have an abcd down pattern from November.

[bearvest]

Glamis:

 

Here's another bullish looking chart, like GG, with very bearish implications.

 

It hit highs and appeared to be a double top breakout. But it now has MACD double divergence and the high seems to be little more than a backtest of the rising lower trendline (which turned into resistance).

[bearvest]

Bullish on MDG?

[traderfromhell]

Growing tired of this trading range bs. We need a good cleanout down to 150 HUI to get the show going I think. 392 Gold is what I'd like to see.

[ThorAss]

Well flat again or nearly so. A Hooey 5 point smack down. Unfortunately I was asleep for yesterday's neckline breakdown so had to wait until today to do my panic selling. It was all a case of very unfortunate bad timing. Really should have seen it coming. Lured in by the old July spike down and reversal. Nope, double jeopardy this time but the signals were there. Especially yesterday. Looked ugly from moments after I was committed. Today it's simple-minded across the board selling. They are all marked down because THEY ALL MUST GO!

I don't have one stock on my board (26) that isn't red. And thus dies breakout attempt II.

 

Turd times a charm.

 

Where is that damn Yankee?

[bearvest]

XAU:

 

Here's where we are at noon Tuesday:

[bearvest]

XAU:

 

Here it is at 3 degrees of trend.

 

The monthly chart shows the corrective flat. We are in the 5th and final wave of C.

 

The daily chart shows the 3 wave action in wave 4 of C. I don't know where it ended. It cold be setting up multiple 1-2's if it ended early.

 

The 30 minute chart picks up the action in the 5th wave down. The entire chart is wave 3 of 5. We impulsed down two weeks ago. I posted the impulses never travel alone. That was wave 1 of 3 of 5. After a very sharp abc correction last week, we are impulsing down again in wace 3 of 5. There are several 1-2's, so we should have impulsive downside action in 3rd waves followed by boring sideways action in 4th's, and impulsive 5th's.

 

All the while, the market should grind lower, until 5 waves are complete in 5 of C. This should take a month or more.

 

I'm going to take a vacation from posting for a while to allow others to express their views.

[yellowfish]

XAU:

 

Here it is at 3 degrees of trend.

 

The monthly chart shows the corrective flat. We are in the 5th and final wave of C.

 

The daily chart  shows the 3 wave action in wave 4 of C. I don't know where it ended. It cold be setting up multiple 1-2's if it ended early.

 

The 30 minute chart picks up the action in the 5th wave down. The entire chart is wave 3 of 5. We impulsed down two weeks ago. I posted the impulses never travel alone. That was wave 1 of 3 of 5. After a very sharp abc correction last week, we are impulsing down again in wace 3 of 5. There are several 1-2's, so we should have impulsive downside action in 3rd waves followed by boring sideways action in 4th's, and impulsive 5th's.

 

All the while, the market should grind lower, until 5 waves are complete in 5 of C. This should take a month or more.

 

I'm going to take a vacation from posting for a while to allow others to express their views.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

 

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

[plantigrade]

"This is not the time to be scared, it is time to be bullish", writes Mark Swanson, "Second Gold Stock Breakout Attempt Coming"

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson072505.html

 

[Old Habits]

Bearvest - Thanks for your thoughts. I did not see your GG chart until just now. Guess I will close my Sept 17.5 calls in the AM tomorrow and take my lumps.

 

I appreciate all that you share with me and the others here. I have learned a lot from looking at your charts and reading your post. I look forward to seeing more of you. Enjoy your break but please come post when you can. Thanks!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

You're going to close a position because somebody posted a chart that went against your thinking?

 

Geez, if I closed mine every time a chart was posted that didn't agree with my views I'd be in deep shit. Sometimes, I'd have saved myself from losses and sometimes I'd have prevented myself from making gains.

 

Take a look at the volume.

 

The market has a very short memory. I remember last year around this time charts were posted on a weekly basis that said down, down ,down. All the way from 180 to 240.

 

It may go down and it may not, go over to Gold-Eagle and somebody will post a chart that says the exact opposite.

 

Time for me to go back on vacation dudes, this is getting old. Good luck.

[ThorAss]

Almost every summer (Northern Hemisphere) it's the same and this is especially true for Youlie. Breakout attempts fail, support lines get violated then reverse. Volume is low (of course) and people are waiting for drilling results to come in. So the doldrums set in. Moving averages flatten out and crossovers are often as frequent as they are meaningless. Finally at some appointed hour on some unknown day in the late summer or fall, there's a break that keeps going. One you don't want to be on the wrong side of. Here's an example of a basic timing model for the Hooey in the last year:

 

Buy Aug 16 190.1

Sell Dec 02 234.4 +44.3 +23.3%

 

Buy Feb 10 200.1

Sell Mar 21 216.9 +16.8 +8.4% Cumul +31.7%

 

Buy May 24 175.6

Sell Jul 19 193.1 +17.5 +10.0% Cumul +41.7%

 

Buy Jul 20 194.2

Sell Jul 27/8 ????????

 

Like I said this is a very basic model involving EMAs, a bit of candlepower and a neckline or 2. But it's the sort of system which can do wonders for your account even though only played from the long side and without additional leverage such as options or margin.

For 11 months there was only 4 signals, SELL, BUY, SELL, BUY but in the last couple of weeks there have been 2 more and any more downside today and we will get another which could make for a flat to loss trade.

There is more to this sell in May and go away thing then meets the eye. It's not just a matter of selling due to the expectation of buying back cheaper, it's just that the market during the summer is so unpredictable.

 

Note: Well I can't speak for bearvest ('cause lawyers can speak for themselves) but it's just possible that the vest is expressing some displeasure at the obvious fact that he is doing a lot of work here and getting virtually nothing in return. I'm not saying that you few who are here are not contributing; it is just we are far too few for the scope of it. Do the low numbers imply that the gold rush is over as 8 year cycles might suggest, or that we've only just begun and haven't even had a wave III breakout yet let alone a wave 5 top. Personally I think we could be in a long Wave II that could conceivably last for another 2 years. Comments??

[Ageka]

The long term euro gold indicator says we have been in a buy and hold bull since

2000 as per weekly chart attached

[Ageka]

The weekly RSI chart says we are overbought after the gold break out and working it off

[Ageka]

[QUOTE]Do the low numbers imply that the gold rush is over as 8 year cycles might suggest, or that we've only just begun and haven't even had a wave III breakout yet let alone a wave 5 top. Personally I think we could be in a long Wave II that could conceivably last for another 2 years. Comments??

 

I think these goldstocks are very difficult to trade and since little is happening

people are keeping busy trading something else

I sold one position and rebought one position in the last 6 months

Luckily there are allways pruuuttty goldcoins

 

On the count I think like you we are in a Wave II but very near a break into

the Wave III

This should be demonstrated by gold mines doing 3 to 5 times better on a percentage basis then gold ( for the moment they are making a relative comeback by not going down whilst gold is going down )

[traderfromhell]

Almost every summer (Northern Hemisphere) it's the same and this is especially true for Youlie. Breakout attempts fail, support lines get violated then reverse. Volume is low (of course) and people are waiting for drilling results to come in. So the doldrums set in. Moving averages flatten out and crossovers are often as frequent as they are meaningless. Finally at some appointed hour on some unknown day in the late summer or fall, there's a break that keeps going. One you don't want to be on the wrong side of. Here's an example of a basic timing model for the Hooey in the last year:

 

Buy Aug 16  190.1

Sell Dec  02 234.4 +44.3 +23.3%

 

Buy Feb 10  200.1

Sell Mar 21  216.9 +16.8 +8.4% Cumul +31.7%

 

Buy May 24  175.6

Sell Jul  19  193.1 +17.5 +10.0% Cumul +41.7%

 

Buy Jul  20  194.2

Sell Jul  27/8  ????????

 

Like I said this is a very basic model involving EMAs, a bit of candlepower and a neckline or 2. But it's the sort of system which can do wonders for your account even though only played from the long side and without additional leverage such as options or margin.

  For 11 months there was only 4 signals, SELL, BUY, SELL, BUY but in the last couple of weeks there have been 2 more and any more downside today and we will get another which could make for a flat to loss trade.

There is more to this sell in May and go away thing then meets the eye. It's not just a matter of selling due to the expectation of buying back cheaper, it's just that the market during the summer is so unpredictable.

 

Note: Well I can't speak for bearvest ('cause lawyers can speak for themselves) but it's just possible that the vest is expressing some displeasure at the obvious fact that he is doing a lot of work here and getting virtually nothing in return. I'm not saying that you few who are here are not contributing; it is just we are far too few for the scope of it. Do the low numbers imply that the gold rush is over as 8 year cycles might suggest, or that we've only just begun and haven't even had a wave III breakout yet let alone a wave 5 top. Personally I think we could be in a long Wave II that could conceivably last for another 2 years. Comments??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Thor a 20 year bear market will do that to a guy. Know what I mean? They get interested it's time to rock and roll. I can assure you I appreciate all the work done here on the forum