Hiding Bear Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Mark may be busy for awhile, so let's get started! The Year of the Bear? Even bears have been surprised by the way this year has started, excepting Mark, Doc, and some other fine traders here. What's next? Well even the Fed has words of caution, although they do not appear to be coming from those that hold the keys to the electronic money presses (Easy Al and Ben "The Printer" Bernanke): A number of participants voiced concerns about domestic and global financial imbalances. On the domestic front, such concerns focused on the magnitude of current and projected fiscal deficits, which seemed likely to keep national saving low. Views about the prospects for fiscal restraint in the years ahead were mixed; some participants believed that the odds of significant deficit reduction over the next few years were remote while others were more optimistic. Regarding global imbalances and the current account deficit in the United States, a number of participants expressed doubts that such imbalances would be reduced in the near-term. Better global balance would require not only greater national saving in the United States but also a notable strengthening in domestic demand among major trading partners. Such a strengthening seemed unlikely in the near term given the recent softening in the economies of several important industrial countries. In their discussion of financial market conditions, participants noted that investors anticipated further increases in the federal funds rate over the coming year, but intermediate- and long-term interest rates along with financial conditions more generally had remained quite supportive of growth. A few participants commented that the generally low level of interest rates across a wide range of maturities and the recent flattening of the slope of the yield curve (measured as the spread between ten- and two-year Treasury yields) might signal that expectations of longer-term growth had been marked down. Some participants believed that the prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets evidenced by quite narrow credit spreads, a pickup in initial public offerings, an upturn in mergers and acquisition activity, and anecdotal reports that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets for single-family homes and condominiums. http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20041214.htm
Hiding Bear Posted January 4, 2005 Author Report Posted January 4, 2005 About the above - Machinehead said - This is the closest the Fed ever gets to acknowledging a Bubble. This is the Crack of Doom for Wank Street ... 'accommodation removal' HURTS, eh? Write it down on your calendar: Feb. 2 -- rate hike no. 6 ... Fxfox said - one msut be blind or something not to have realized in last months that FED made it crystal clear that interest rates policy will change and that the change will msot likely not be only temporarily. This will also have an effect on dollar. I stick to it. Market will change towards dollar. Soon we will hear again about the "European malaise" and "imagien if turkey joins the euro" talk. The move in euro above 1.30 was becasue of the same reason the stock market went up in Dec. As Doc and others pointed out yesterday the FED paniced in Nov, thats why the dollar went down so much in last few weeks. Grandpopercycle said - That quote is as close as Sir Bubbles & friends will get to saying: 'Holy shit, what have we done?!'. Still could see one more run back up later this month; 4-year cycle 'ought' to be pretty much rolled down by now, though. Roq said - Why would magoo state the obvious? After all low rates are supposed to steer speculators into risky assets. His m.o. is to babble around the issue without taking any clear position. Could it be that some of our creditors bum rushed magoo in the boardroom? Something along the lines of get YOUR dollar problem under control before WE raise rates for you.
Guest Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Pompano Beach Police Department's Retirement Fund is suing Krispy Kreme Doughnuts??? Say it ain't so!
huey9 Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Pompano Beach Police Department's Retirement Fund is suing Krispy Kreme Doughnuts??? Say it ain't so! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> for real? for what?
ConfusedAssRev1 Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Pompano Beach Police Department's Retirement Fund is suing Krispy Kreme Doughnuts??? ? ? Say it ain't so! ? ? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> for real? for what? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Channel stuffing -- where's Drano -- Should have a field day with this.
Drano Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Cops buying doughnuts? Eat them, don't invest in them. Or you'll be sorry...... (The rare Hai-Cop-Pu)
Charmin Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 No More Mr. Nice Guy DX has one more call to make...... after that and a renewed downturn and Sir Al's buddies might start having nighmares when nobody wants a promisary note anymore..... that means the 80 area lows are big time defense line...... will it hold in 2005?
machinehead Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Enjoy the rich parallels to 1999/2000. The Fed started hiking rates in mid-1999. After about the 4th or 5th hike in early 2000, the market started to suffer. But the Fed whacked it with another hike in May 2000 ... and held rates there until Jan. 2001. And they're about to DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN. The Fed Funds futures predict that the Funds rate will reach 3.00% in the spring ... that's THREE MORE QUARTER-POINT HIKES. What it will amount to, is a 200% increase in less than year ... the fastest rate of rise EVER, expressed in those terms. The yield curve -- basically the subsidy for Banksters and HedgeHogs -- has been catastrophically compressed. No more free lunch! Unfortunately, there is no painless way out. History shows that the Fed will hike until the sound of shattering glass is heard ... then rush to the fatal accident scene with sirens blaring and lights flashing, offering emergency rate cut medicine ... after it's too late. Al Leeson for coroner! MH Mr. Market was a pillar of our community. ==== But he suffered terribly from bipolar illness. Maybe it was a blessing in disguise.
Sudaca Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Pompano Beach Police Department's Retirement Fund is suing Krispy Kreme Doughnuts??? Say it ain't so! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> It will never get to court They'll settle for a lifetime supply of free doughnuts
Charmin Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 You want donuts... "Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD) 9.99% LOWER; the latest filing in a shareholder lawsuit against the firm charges that they routinely padded sales by doubling shipments to wholesale customers at the end of fiscal quarters. In addition, KKD announced the decision to restate financial statements." are cops wholesale customers - hahahhaah
DrStool Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Those hot glazed donuts are still the greatest. I go off my diet once a month for a treat.
Drano Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 The funny thing is that in a blind taste test here, the testers all picked the cheapest doughnut, from a gigantic local bakery that supplies the major grocery stores. I finally broke down and tried one. They're good, but not 75 cents good. And I do like the local bakery ones better. Except that I can't get 'em any more -- replaced by KKD at the grocery store.
dozer Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Pompano Beach Police Department's Retirement Fund is suing Krispy Kreme Doughnuts??? Say it ain't so! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> ya just can't make stuff like that up...too funny
DrStool Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Gotta get em hot off the line. Good coffee too.
Tchaikofsky Posted January 4, 2005 Report Posted January 4, 2005 Close: Inflation concerns, profit taking and higher oil prices were just some of the catalysts that fueled a selling frenzy that kept virtually every sector underwater all afternoon... While a summary of the FOMC's December 14 meeting minutes viewed a rise in equity markets and an improving job outlook as supporting consumption, it also renewed worries about inflation and raised concerns about risk taking in the market, prompting investors to lock in two months of profits... Some of the FOMC members were worried that stronger price pressures could result from weakness in the greenback, a slowdown in productivity growth and higher energy prices... With regards to the latter, a 4.3% rebound in crude oil prices ($43.91/bbl +1.79) only exacerbated selling interest that even pushed energy stocks lower and kept market internals negative throughout most of the session... Not even stronger than expected November factory orders of 1.2% (consensus 1.0%), which lifted stocks in the early going as the data confirmed continued strength in demand and business investment, was enough to keep buyers from heading for the exits...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.