anotherone Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Obviously the construction industry and the banks will be at greatest risk - but with so much of our economy tied to the housing industry (whether directly or indirectly), our experience in asset price deflation, should it come, would be devestating. My thinking is that the banks have passed off most of the loans to bagholders via structured finance. Now who may the largest bagholders be??? Probably pension and retirement funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Bulls Have Merry Christmas Bears Wait Till Next Year Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Banks may have passed off some of it, but they are still growing their loan base, close to half, real estate based. See the Fed Releases Weekly reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Banks may have passed off some of it, but they are still growing their loan base, close to half, real estate based. See the Fed Releases Weekly reports. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> That's sort of what I figured. I recall Mark posting something a couple months ago about his bank making a conscious decision to carry more risky mortgage loans...at least I think that's what he said. JP Morgan is a bank...and may be hedged against themselves like FNM in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 I think this debting and consuming religion we have here is a function of 2 historic factors. It is wrapped up in the insatiable socio-political doctrine of Manifest Destiny which is essentially a massive national cultist endorsement of instant gratification embedded in our historical psyche. It can also be traced back to the most active orignial members of the colonists, the debtors. They would have lived out their lives in dungeons back in England, instead they bred and spawned the first generation of rapacious beings on the continent. Afterall the real reason this country fought the American Revolution was because the landed gentry did not what to pay what it owed the English crown in taxes due as a result of the French-Indian Wars. Without a major English investment during that period we could all easily be speaking French now. Ben Franklin and other greats had secret rooms in their homes where they hoarded the booty they made off the Rum trade of the time and they were insistent on never paying any tax on it. Happy Holidays to all,buddha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Frohe Weihnachten Stoolies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Happy Holidays! Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non addictive gender neutral, celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling, and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2005, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make America great (not to imply that America is necessarily greater than any other country or is the only "AMERICA" in the western hemisphere), and without regard to the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith, or sexual preference of the wishee. By accepting this greeting, you are accepting these terms: This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal. It is freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting. It implies no promise by the wisher to actually implement any of the wishes for her/himself or others, and is void where prohibited by law, and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher. This wish is warranted to perform as expected within the usual application of good tidings for a period of one year, or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first, and warranty is limited to replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wisher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Doc's First Blog Entry Seems there are a few bugs to be worked out. For some reason the header bar background disappears which makes the headings, which are in white font, invisible. We'll get that fixed, but not till after the holidays. I hope that all of you take the opportunity to start your own blogs. You must be a registered board member to start a blog. You can start your blog from the Blog Settings portion of "My Controls". The links to My Controls, and the blogs, are in the top menu bar. I will add links to the forum menu at left, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 pigeon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 The Financial Times runs a tongue-in-cheek headline: Dollar falls to fresh lows in thin festive trade Yeah, we was celebrating too! Me screen got sticky wid champagne spray: The euro rose to $1.3548 versus the dollar, nearly half a cent above its Thursday peak set after the US durables goods and home sales figures. Link All together now: Death to the dollah! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> MH I wonder what ceremony will be designed to commemorate another entity similar to the one being celebrated today, and who also had an agonizing precursory stroll:namely the Via Dolor-osa beardrech I was forced out of my tiny position in Kinross-the reason of course being economic rationality--"This is the last time we will besending notices and proxies costing us 37 cents to thos of our shareholders having 27 cents--- Is there anyone out there who can reccomend a stock dealing in a commodity like small potatos or radish pipelines or recycling baby diapers--soemthing i can depend on??? Serial financial excommunications are taking a toll on my spirits-- I'm also excluded from my favorite barber shop--the sign reading--"Take your bald head elsewher -We dont cater to sheep that are already shorn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 pigeon... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> totally hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Out for the day now (out of it for the day, always) -- To those who celebrate the holiday, acres of diamonds under your tree, shares of coal mining stocks in you stockings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 A broken home: Fannie Mae faces an uncertain future as its accounts unravel By Andrew Parker and Jenny Wiggins Published: December 23 2004 02:00 Created by Congress in 1938 to make a secondary market for mortgages and lower the costs of home ownership, Fannie is a hybrid: a public company with shareholders that receives government subsidies. These subsidies have allowed Fannie, and its sibling finance provider Freddie Mac, to grow more rapidly than the banks that also participate in the mortgage market. Combined, Fannie and Freddie either own or guarantee 46 per cent, or $7,700bn, of the US's mortgage debt. Banks have been unhappy about what they perceive to be a duopoly in the mortgage market. Meanwhile, policymakers, including Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, have been uneasy about the thousands of derivatives transactions Fannie and Freddie undertake to hedge their mortgage portfolios. As well as being one of the US's largest financial institutions, Fannie is one of the biggest users of derivatives, with a notional $1,079bn outstanding at the end of last year. This month, the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned that it would be watching for any signs of a weakening in the government's implied support for Fannie and Freddie's debt. "The slightest evidence that Congress would in any way agree to lessen its authority or cede it to others would in and of itself necessitate a rethinking of how much confidence bondholders should have that their interest would be taken into consideration in the case of a failed GSE," S&P said. Foreign purchases of agency debt securities have been falling during the past few months, dropping to $83bn in October, the lowest level since early 2001, while purchases of other kinds of US debt securities have remained steady, suggesting debt investors may be more sceptical about Fannie and Freddie's financial health. The Securities and Exchange Commission said last week that Fannie Mae did not comply with the FASB Statement 133, the set of mandatory accounting rules on derivatives. KPMG is likely to argue that Statement 133, which runs to 213 pages and is augmented by hundreds of pages of guidance notes on its use, is open to differing interpretations because of its complexity. "Statement 133 is extremely complex," said one person familiar with Fannie's situation. "If you looked at an organisation as large as Fannie maybe you would take the view that some real business judgments need to be at hand here to make this very cumbersome standard effective." http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4babaee8-5488-11d...000e2511c8.html Now I ask you...why would a set of rules governing derivatives transactions used by Freddie & Fannie to hedge their mortgage risks need to be extremely complex and cumbersome??? I often find that graphics are a wonderful way to take complex concepts and put them into terms that even the layperson (or your Congressman or Senator) can readily comprehend. To this end, I have taken it upon myself to produce a flow chart depicting Fannie (the Circular shape) and Freddie (the Triangular shape). Note that each graphical shape is made up entirely of bubbles depicting derivative contracts. You will note the the perspective in this diagram is somewhat distorted, as it's not always easy to tell where these bubbles are coming from or going to. Are they coming toward you or going away from you? Which way are they flowing? Where do they start and where do they end? This illusion is by design. Note the circular shape in the center of the diagram...which for the sake of this flow chart, we will refer to as "The Rabbit Hole." Again... are the bubbles flowing toward you or away from you? If you can't tell, then I have done a splendid job designing my flow chart, as this is the essence of Fannie and Freddie's success. Do the bubbles appear to go deep into the earth, or into outer space? The truth is that it doesn't matter, as they always come back into view. Behold, the Virtuous Derivatives Cyclone Copyright by Plunger THC fueled pen and ink - art school project - 1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 Drano Now I got you--I dig Thank you Sun on Mast Child's lollipop Large man weeping Jahrzeit Candle for world Baruch atah Behrdrech:ph34r: (Above submitted in retaliation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 24, 2004 Report Share Posted December 24, 2004 I think this debting and consuming religion we have here is a function of 2 historic factors. It is wrapped up in the insatiable socio-political doctrine of Manifest Destiny which is essentially a massive national cultist endorsement of instant gratification embedded in our historical psyche. It can also be traced back to the most active orignial members of the colonists, the debtors. They would have lived out their lives in dungeons back in England, instead they bred and spawned the first generation of rapacious beings on the continent. Afterall the real reason this country fought the American Revolution was because the landed gentry did not what to pay what it owed the English crown in taxes due as a result of the French-Indian Wars. Without a major English investment during that period we could all easily be speaking French now. Ben Franklin and other greats had secret rooms in their homes where they hoarded the booty they made off the Rum trade of the time and they were insistent on never paying any tax on it. Happy Holidays to all,buddha <{POST_SNAPBACK}> After reading that to Lady Fokker, her first comment was, "That must mean he forgot to get a gift for his wife." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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