beardrech Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 that's right!? I knew that.... hi BM ! yah, it's Thorass....I knew it was one of us. Well I hope he's OK. . . So yer plastic didn't bend as far as expected, eh?? Well, the resilient consumer isn't buying squat here today; as the snow is now coming down so hard I can barely see across the yard.? The freeway going into Siskiyou pass is a mess....cars and trucks strewn about like toys.? NOT a good post-xmas-sale shopping day! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> hey dozer, no snow yet here, but I'm staying home anyway! finally a day to relax. if I get bored later, I may read more of this interesting govt report on Oil Shale reserves in the US (a 1MB+ PDF file): Strategic Significance of America's Oil Shale Resource while the report sorta acknowledges peak oil in terms of conventional crude, instead of forecasting higher prices negatively impacting the US economy, it projects oil shale production will be high enough that US GDP will be positively affected as OPEC production decreases. Also estimates 2.0 trillion barrels in oil shale vs 1.7 trillion in Alberta oil sands. or as we say in some parts of the East, I got your oil sands right here. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> There is a process for liquifying gas called the fischer tropsch method--discovered and invented by two WW@ Nazi scientists it has been used by Sasoil(South africa) for over 50 yearsa and has just broken the price barrier relative to current prices of petrroleum--- According to Bloom the infrastructure necessary for producing 1 barrel of oil per day is $30,000 @ current prices-- The leading American co. in the method's advancement is Texaco What this permits the industry to do(natural gas) is expand the petro;eum rescorces of the world enormously by freeing orphaned gas fields for production as well as coal gasification--thecatch? Only by joining th eKyoto protocl will it become econmically necessary for USA to accelerate availing itself of the proess The reason? A much cleaner product than all of the hi sulfur fuels beardrech All oil longs must research this method carefully because its a technological damooclean sword hanging over the pricing power of mid-eastern despots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 One thing I forgot to note. In spite of manic pumping by the Fed, and massive loan growth in the banking system, the money supply has failed to expand. It's leaking out the back end as fast as they can pour it in the front end. This is the proverbial Fed pushing on a string scenario. So what happens if Fannie, the main engine of credit bubble growth is forced to shrink, as it ultimately must? I don't have the answers. This will be a play as you go in the markets, because, while I give the nod to hyperinflation at the moment, it could tip the other way, in spite of Al's maniacal pumping. Take Japan in the 90's for example. One thing I am certain will deflate is real estate. http://www.realestatebubblewatch.com <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How would one know if the Feed decides to start cooking the books in the name of national securty? How would the public know if they decide to monitize bad GSE paper or some other worthless pension paper like the Alabama state pension fund US Air paper or Cal pension venture capital money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 From August on this chart says the meltup began http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page6.pdf take a look at any number of stocks and August was a low it doesn't look like it's moving sideways yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 One thing I forgot to note. In spite of manic pumping by the Fed, and massive loan growth in the banking system, the money supply has failed to expand. It's leaking out the back end as fast as they can pour it in the front end. This is the proverbial Fed pushing on a string scenario. So what happens if Fannie, the main engine of credit bubble growth is forced to shrink, as it ultimately must? I don't have the answers. This will be a play as you go in the markets, because, while I give the nod to hyperinflation at the moment, it could tip the other way, in spite of Al's maniacal pumping. Take Japan in the 90's for example. One thing I am certain will deflate is real estate. http://www.realestatebubblewatch.com <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How would one know if the Feed decides to start cooking the books in the name of national securty? How would the public know if they decide to monitize bad GSE paper or some other worthless pension paper like the Alabama state pension fund US Air paper or Cal pension venture capital money? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> EXACTLY! If they are lying about every other number they release, why should we put any faith in these numbers? I assume they are lying about virtually everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 That's why the only thing that matters is the price charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 Charmin- M2 is not the money supply. It is part of it. It does not include money market funds. The broadest measures of money, MZM, which is all the most liquid forms of money, and M3 which includes all of M2, plus mmf's and a few other things have been flat since May, because mmf's have been collapsing. What M2 shows is the disintermediation of money from the mmf's to the banking system. . At the same time, there has been an increase speculation because of the relative shrinkage of certain alternatives, such as the mortgage market, which the banks, at least, are running away from poste haste. There has been no broad scale liquefaction, but there has been a transfer of liquidity into the most speculative sectors of the pyramid. I assume this is going to end badly, but it seems the horizon keeps being pushed out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardrech Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 One thing I forgot to note. In spite of manic pumping by the Fed, and massive loan growth in the banking system, the money supply has failed to expand. It's leaking out the back end as fast as they can pour it in the front end. This is the proverbial Fed pushing on a string scenario. So what happens if Fannie, the main engine of credit bubble growth is forced to shrink, as it ultimately must?? I don't have the answers. This will be a play as you go in the markets, because, while I give the nod to hyperinflation at the moment, it could tip the other way, in spite of Al's maniacal pumping.? Take Japan in the 90's for example.? One thing I am certain will deflate is real estate.? http://www.realestatebubblewatch.com <{POST_SNAPBACK}> How would one know if the Feed decides to start cooking the books in the name of national securty? How would the public know if they decide to monitize bad GSE paper or some other worthless pension paper like the Alabama state pension fund US Air paper or Cal pension venture capital money? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> EXACTLY! If they are lying about every other number they release, why should we put any faith in these numbers? I assume they are lying about virtually everything. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Oh what a tangled web we weave when at first we try to deceive! With emphasis on the word tangled Did you ever see a good lawyer cross examine a bullshit artist on the stand Z(see Buffet on the current state of affairs;not to mention Dok) Do you think complex systems on a magnitutude we are talking about are simple states of affairs that can be manipulated forever --of course you dont and anyone realizing this and not acting upon it is simply permittting himself towards being blinded by his impatience-- The manipulations at this stage of the game become examples of insanely compounded modes of positive feedback with spiderweb entangling complexity Pretty soon you'll be hearing more and more knight on white horses suggestions for DISENTANGELING THE THE THREADS OF DESTRUCTION-- wE HAVE AN EXPRESSION FOR THIS- es wert nisht dich gar nicht helfen beardrech :ph34r: BD you insolent truckload of stink stop behaving like a recalcitrant fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hedonicprocto Posted December 27, 2004 Report Share Posted December 27, 2004 Doc;If you are certain real estate deflates, where will the money come from to cause hyperinflation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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