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Close: Fed's meeting on Wednesday... While it is expected the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 2.00%, it is still 'new' that the Fed will again tighten in December... Fed funds futures priced in a greater likelihood following Friday's strong October employment report... In today's action, energy, health care, and financial were the largest laggards...

Doesn?t that sound like he is building up his rate cut army to fight the next bear phase?

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I did some R&D while you were trying to trade sleeping donkey. Thing do points to 20-24th Nov then one should see some flushing action. B wave from 2002 should provide ample resistance around 1172, down followed by Santa rally on low volume to complete the C wave.

Feed,

 

This can break either ways - as your chart in IDS showed, there is a bullish C&H and possible Inverse H&S forming. On Monthlies, their measured move is :o

 

There is a strong Fib/Bradley confluence around Nov-10/12 and again around Nov-23/24.

 

The Rt shoulder of the long-term H&S on SPX at 1172 should provide stiff resistance - but, keep in mind, that once the Rt shoulder is busted, the move up will be swift and strong. The move up from Oct-25 low is impulsive - 700 on Dow with heavy volume. The pattern does not suggest a blow-off top, though.

 

Seasonaly, this is a strong period. Remember 2003 Dec? Dow/SPX were going higher but COMP was dragging and the bearish divergence on McClellan Summation was a sight to behold as were the bearish divergence on RSI and MACD on COMP - oh well, I learnt well enough not to short in December :(

 

VXO is troubling - but here is a fact FWIW. The 95 bull was launched from a VXO reading of 14 :P (Not comparing 94 with 04 in general, but a low VXO in and of itself, is not enough)

 

If indeed, the resistance at 1172 should be impregnable, then we will see a low volume retest of it and a few distribution days thrown in.

 

IMHO, the time for crash this year has passed

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Hedge Funds are the third-largest scam on the planet, after Social Security and the Nasdaq 'Stock Market.'

 

Kindly allow me to update the remarks of Andrew Mellon, President Hoover's Treasury secretary:

 

"Liquidate hedge funds, liquidate stocks, liquidate the dollar, liquidate real estate ... It will purge the rottenness out of the system ... Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks."

 

The same pattern has been observed with mutual funds (MFs), except there is not an intentional mis-start or performance bagging. Funds that are doing badly simply are 'merged' into other funds, undergo name and strategy changes, or are just liquidated.

 

The Treasury Secretary in 2005 may say - monetize stocks, devaluate the dollar, and give new mortgages to those holding real estate. Values will not be adjusted downward, but only up, and US will pick up the wrecks. :lol:

And after the Fed monetizes everything, the Supreme Court declares the Federal Reserve System unconstitutional and the Fed declares bankruptcy as a private corporation.

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cheify....too funny :lol:

 

sloth, tanks for the link!

 

Feed: good stuff. The only problem I have with Nov 25th is that opex is the 17th, and I just can't believe they'd let all those calls expire in the money so far. But perhaps they have bigger fish to fry this month, and so will let that happen :unsure:

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OSX got killed today.

 

Expecting crude to move down to $45................

 

As usual, when one sector gets overhyped, it gets drilled.

 

I'll have to close out these longs if they don't turn around ASAP..............

 

Maybe that explains the unusual strength in the RLX. A "tax rebate" via dramatically lower oil prices. Maybe a Falloujah victory will secure Iraq oil...

 

Who knows???

 

But on the other hand, the XAL looks toppy, after having a vertical move.

 

I'm still upset that I got shanked out of my TZOO and TASR longs last month. And shaken out of the XAL at the absolute low tick...........

 

Funny how markets know exactly how low they need to go to get you to pull the trigger and bail out.

 

Still lots of signs of strength in individual stocks, but the IBD Mo-Mo list isn't really partcipating, and the trannies look really overextended.

 

Let go of my URBN short, but still hanging on to SBUX short for a couple more days as a hedge....

 

We'll see..........

 

I'll be home later tonight..........

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OSX got killed today.

 

Expecting crude to move down to $45................

 

As usual, when one sector gets overhyped, it gets drilled.

 

I'll have to close out these longs if they don't turn around ASAP..............

 

Maybe that explains the unusual strength in the RLX. A "tax rebate" via dramatically lower oil prices. Maybe a Falloujah victory will secure Iraq oil...

 

Who knows???

 

But on the other hand, the XAL looks toppy, after having a vertical move.

 

I'm still upset that I got shanked out of my TZOO and TASR longs last month. And shaken out of the XAL at the absolute low tick...........

 

Funny how markets know exactly how low they need to go to get you to pull the trigger and bail out.

 

Still lots of signs of strength in individual stocks, but the IBD Mo-Mo list isn't really partcipating, and the trannies look really overextended.

 

Let go of my URBN short, but still hanging on to SBUX short for a couple more days as a hedge....

 

We'll see..........

 

I'll be home later tonight..........

TASR-trade only break outs either way- make good dollars with lower risk-

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CEF, the closed-end version, was down today. However, as I think you pointed out the other day, CEF is still the vehicle for silver exposure (50% of their stored bullion is silver).

CEF closed with a premium of 8.7% today which is the lowest I've seen in a long long time. I'm adding on the open tomorrow. Have a look at the dollar charts:

post-7-1099964202.jpg

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CEF, the closed-end version, was down today. However, as I think you pointed out the other day, CEF is still the vehicle for silver exposure (50% of their stored bullion is silver).

CEF closed with a premium of 8.7% today which is the lowest I've seen in a long long time. I'm adding on the open tomorrow. Have a look at the dollar charts:

Chart history of premium.

post-7-1099965815.png

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