Jump to content

Ready for the Fed


Recommended Posts

Posted

Mark left this message:

 

I'm off to Big Sur for the weekend.

 

Gone on Monday, will be back on Tuesday.....

 

 

So it looks like we will be missing our regular and amusing market summary. So take it away fellow stoolies -

 

 

Think that the US has a huge trade surplus on farm goods? Think again.

 

America's appetite for imported food is creating problems for the U.S. economy.

 

Agriculture, one of the few big sectors of the economy that could be counted on to produce trade surpluses, has recently generated monthly deficits -- a development that could worsen the nation's already significant trade imbalance.

 

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. imported more agricultural goods than it exported in June and August, the first monthly trade deficits since 1986, when the Farm Belt was mired in a depression.

 

"It's very worrisome," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist of banking giant Wells Fargo & Co. "We need agricultural trade surpluses more than ever because the nonagricultural deficit is ballooning."

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1099870...e_whats_news_us

Farm_Trade_Deficit

  • Replies 49
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted

Close: It was a listless day of trading for the stock market today as volumes were light, breadth figures were mildly negative, and catalysts for upside were few and far between... The S&P 500 recently posted 9 straight days of gains (and a new high for the year in the process), and that thus ignited talk of overbought technical conditions... While the major indices did not sell off during any part of the day (the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P were confined to a range of 44, 11, and 5 points, respectively), they also never exhibited positive momentum...

 

Sector movement was to the downside with the exception of telecom service, retail, homebuilding, and transportation... Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.97 unch) and Dell Inc's (DELL 37.68 +0.19) earnings reports Tuesday and Thursday after the close led to some of the caution, as did the Fed's meeting on Wednesday... While it is expected the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, to 2.00%, it is still 'new' that the Fed will again tighten in December... Fed funds futures priced in a greater likelihood following Friday's strong October employment report... In today's action, energy, health care, and financial were the largest laggards...

Posted

VCampus surges on earnings hopes

By Ciara Linnane, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 4:11 PM ET Nov. 8, 2004

 

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- VCampus shares surged more than 50 percent Monday in anticipation of its third-quarter earnings report, following stronger than expected numbers from rival eCollege last week.

 

Virginia-based VCampus, which provides outsourced online training to companies, governments and institutes of higher education, is due to report on Wednesday.

 

Shares closed up 52.2 percent at $2.45. Volume of 4.4 million shares was more than 75 times the stock's average daily volume.

Posted

It still looks like the ETF for gold, Equity Gold, is about to arrive:

 

National Post

© 2004 National Post . All Rights Reserved.

 

Monday, November 8, 2004

Financial Post Investing

SEC looks set to approve gold ETF: Gives bullion a boost

 

Kevin Morrison

Financial Times

 

LONDON - The long wait for a new listed gold investment product backed by the World Gold Council and State Street Securities may soon be over, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission expected to approve the product, a first of its kind to be listed on a U.S. stock exchange.  The WGC, an industry body financed by some of the world's largest gold miners, and State Street are expected to meet next week to finalize details of a marketing program for the new product, which will allow investors to buy gold without worrying about storage, insurance or transportation costs, or the risk of margin calls associated with gold futures.

 

Precious metals traders and fund managers said talk of an imminent approval from the SEC was a factor behind the run up in the bullion price to a 16-year high of US$433.90 a troy ounce on Friday as hedge funds were taking positions in the futures market last week in anticipation of the launch of a new product.

 

The gold investment instrument will be an exchange traded fund (ETF). These are very popular among U.S. investors as they track stock indices for a lower cost than index-based managed funds.

 

The product, which may be listed by the end of the year on the New York Stock Exchange, will be an open-ended fund and will track the gold price, with each unit equal to one-tenth of an ounce of gold.

 

If approved, it would end an 18-month wait for the London-based World Gold Council, which first filed for the product, originally called Equity Gold Trust, in May 2003. One of the reasons it has taken so long is because it represents a landmark decision for the SEC.

 

There is no investment product listed on a U.S. stock exchange that is backed by a commodity because pension funds are largely prohibited from taking a direct investment in a commodity. It could also potentially pave the way for more ETF-style funds backed by commodities.

 

Barclays Global Investors has also filed a gold ETF investment proposal with the SEC.

 

Let's see if the SEC will break new ivestment ground and allow this type of ETF into retirement plans. I think they won't but it could go either way.

Posted

To make up for his lousy book A Random Walk Down Wall Street (which fatuously claims that you can't beat the market, and therefore should just mindlessly buy an index), Burton Malkiel somewhat redeems himself by blowing the cover off the gigantic Hedge Fund Scam:

 

"Managers will often establish a hedge fund with seed capital and begin reporting their results at some later date and only if the initial results are favorable,'' the study states. "Moreover, the most favorable of the early results are 'backfilled' in the (hedge fund) database along with reports of contemporaneous results.         

 

"On average, the backfilled returns are over 500 basis points (5 percentage points) higher than the contemporaneously reported returns.''

 

Hedge fund reporting is taken to task by the Malkiel-Saha paper because "dead'' failed funds that have liquidated are often not included in key fund indexes.         

 

That means that funds like the notorious Long Term Capital Management -- which lost 92 percent of its capital between October 1997 and October 1998 -- aren't reflected in major indexes, so investors can get a glossy, retouched picture of hedge fund returns overall.

 

Just think positive

 

HA HA HA HA HA HA ...

 

LTCM, the most famous hedge fund in history -- the one that single-handedly provoked a massive Federal Reserve bailout -- ISN'T REFLECTED IN HEDGE FUND PERFORMANCE INDICES?

 

HA HA HA HA HA HA

 

I'm sorry ... but if Pied Piper John Mauldin has talked you into a Hedge Fund ... you're a f***in' idiot.

 

Hedge Funds are the third-largest scam on the planet, after Social Security and the Nasdaq 'Stock Market.'

 

Kindly allow me to update the remarks of Andrew Mellon, President Hoover's Treasury secretary:

 

"Liquidate hedge funds, liquidate stocks, liquidate the dollar, liquidate real estate ... It will purge the rottenness out of the system ... Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks."

 

* rolls up sleeves and slams down a beer *

Posted

Thank you, Hiding Bear.

 

CEF, the closed-end version, was down today. However, as I think you pointed out the other day, CEF is still the vehicle for silver exposure (50% of their stored bullion is silver).

Posted

Anomaly- Dollar Targets move lower, while bond yield targets inch higher.

 

Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

Posted
Hedge Funds are the third-largest scam on the planet, after Social Security and the Nasdaq 'Stock Market.'

 

Kindly allow me to update the remarks of Andrew Mellon, President Hoover's Treasury secretary:

 

"Liquidate hedge funds, liquidate stocks, liquidate the dollar, liquidate real estate ... It will purge the rottenness out of the system ... Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks."

 

The same pattern has been observed with mutual funds (MFs), except there is not an intentional mis-start or performance bagging. Funds that are doing badly simply are 'merged' into other funds, undergo name and strategy changes, or are just liquidated.

 

The Treasury Secretary in 2005 may say - monetize stocks, devaluate the dollar, and give new mortgages to those holding real estate. Values will not be adjusted downward, but only up, and US will pick up the wrecks. :lol:

Posted

I did some R&D while you were trying to trade sleeping donkey. Thing do points to 20-24th Nov then one should see some flushing action. B wave from 2002 should provide ample resistance around 1172, down followed by Santa rally on low volume to complete the C wave.

 

Altimate low has to be many years away. Look how Nigel Lawson sold gold at rock bottom then brought the Butt paper at the top. Did any Central Bonkers sold gold at the top???

 

In the seventies looks how well Japan did while America was in deep shit and commodities price went through the roof.

 

Bush senior lost the election followed by raging bull market this time it?s Different. Year 05 should be bearish that also leaves behind 1256 target price outstanding for another day.

post-7-1099951363.gif

Posted
Japan Times on Uncle Buck's severe shrinkage

 

"The euro is gradually taking over the function of the dollar as a key currency"

 

Better get while the gettins good,eh,Georgie?

Participation by foreign central banks at today's 3 year bond auction was probably

substantial. This means that the BOJ has yet to give up on accumulating US$s.

 

However stories like this may be a prologue to a reduction of that dollar support.

Former Japanese official "Mr.Yen" says that Japan will never return to the level of intervention for the $ we saw in the first quarter 2004.

Posted

Doc,

 

as i said at the end of IDS you are really fornicateed now. Bob "Milhouse" Pissbob lives in Philly and IS a Eagles fan. How will you handle that cancer in your hometown?

 

:lol: :lol:

Posted

my suggrstion would be the following:

 

At the next Eagles home match you sit directly near him, then when he screames "IGGGGLESS!!!!!" you punch him directly in da face. He will not notice, only wonder.

 

:lol: :lol:

Posted

Rich uncle show up at Treasury suction party. Lot's of liquidity flowed. Jeeze, what if they hadn't?

 

Fed Update is now posted! Know what Al and his crew are up to, and how it's likely to affect the markets. Take a subscribatory and download your daily Fed Report.

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

 

Capitalstool.com, not just the same old bull!

Posted
Hedge Funds are the third-largest scam on the planet, after Social Security and the Nasdaq 'Stock Market.'

 

Kindly allow me to update the remarks of Andrew Mellon, President Hoover's Treasury secretary:

 

"Liquidate hedge funds, liquidate stocks, liquidate the dollar, liquidate real estate ... It will purge the rottenness out of the system ... Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks."

 

The same pattern has been observed with mutual funds (MFs), except there is not an intentional mis-start or performance bagging. Funds that are doing badly simply are 'merged' into other funds, undergo name and strategy changes, or are just liquidated.

 

The Treasury Secretary in 2005 may say - monetize stocks, devaluate the dollar, and give new mortgages to those holding real estate. Values will not be adjusted downward, but only up, and US will pick up the wrecks. :lol:

Same with the Dow 30, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000. No one benches against the HFR because survivorship bias is rampant. Its a sales tool just like the indeces. And a common sense due diligence question to ferret out what firms play that game - PIMCO.

 

Don't want to be an apologist for the industry of asset based fees, but hedge funds are no better or worse.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...