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Daily Digger - Wetnoseday Slept 1, '04


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Hi Moon & Tig

 

Some of Bishop's favorites:

 

Nevsun (NSU.TO)

Northern Lion (NL.TO)

Almaden (AMM.TO)

Vantek Power (VRB.V)

 

I haven't renewed with Bishop. $250 a quarter. :o

 

Anyway, he is not a technical guy. Sometimes he will make reference to charts, but does not make his reco's based on T/A.

Old Habits,

 

Thanks for the list, I was wondering who you guys were talking about.

 

To be honest, I dont really buy any newsletters because I figure if they are good enough why arent they managing money...well that and Im cheap, lol!

 

Thanks again!

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Charmin - best of luck and safe travel to you.

 

Tig - I also am pretty much cutting off all newsletter writers, Saville is the last. One thing I can say about Bishop, unless he is lying, he puts his money where his reco's are. That being said, he's had some disasters as well. MAN.to, IND.v, - VRB.v has been up and down. I do like his philosophy, he is looking for big gains over the long haul.

Saville on the other hand is wrong ALOT, both with market direction and reco's, time will tell about his long term calls.

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My focus is metals and Oil and gas, service stocks , and a small side of Biotech...

anjing bau,

 

I have similar spots in the ports, the oil service stocks are where I believe the money will be made on the way out the door this year. My focus has been on the deep drillers and related names (TDW, ESV, RIG, GLBL, ATW) but the large drillers have been very nice as well (BHI, BJS, WFT, SII).

 

The "tell" for me was the results the canaries MVK and LSS reported last quarter. If these guys are getting that many orders for OCTG than these guys must be building...and if these guys are building then they must have leases to fill...and if they are building and have leases to fill then they must have limited capacity to meet demand...and that means higher prices and better results.

 

This may sound ridiculous right now, but I have a target on the OSX of 178.

 

So I obviously think there is some money to be made there. :D

Down first then up is my read....

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My focus is metals and Oil and gas, service stocks , and a small side of Biotech...

anjing bau,

 

I have similar spots in the ports, the oil service stocks are where I believe the money will be made on the way out the door this year. My focus has been on the deep drillers and related names (TDW, ESV, RIG, GLBL, ATW) but the large drillers have been very nice as well (BHI, BJS, WFT, SII).

 

The "tell" for me was the results the canaries MVK and LSS reported last quarter. If these guys are getting that many orders for OCTG than these guys must be building...and if these guys are building then they must have leases to fill...and if they are building and have leases to fill then they must have limited capacity to meet demand...and that means higher prices and better results.

 

This may sound ridiculous right now, but I have a target on the OSX of 178.

 

So I obviously think there is some money to be made there. :D

along with your canaries you can look at IPS Ipsco.... they are steel boys who biuld the larger size pipes for pipelines....

 

IPS.to just hit new highs...... :rolleyes:

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along with your canaries you can look at IPS Ipsco.... they are steel boys who biuld the larger size pipes for pipelines....

 

IPS.to just hit new highs...... :rolleyes:

anjing bau,

 

Have been rolling out of steel positions these last few months after being scoffed at for suggesting them in December and January of this year. It has been a great spot to be, much like gold miners were in early '02. In fact, I got the same type of reaction when I began recommending them, so now I look at it as one of the best ways to anticipate if an idea will work.

 

That is when everything lines up for me, find a sector whose fundamentals are improving, is under owned, and pretty much hated by everyone and you have yourself a pretty solid money making opportunity on your hands. Steel was great, rode quite a few of them to some great gains (OS, AKS, ATI, USAP, X, CLF) but now am down to WOR and NX as my only steel positions. They have alot of things going for them now without the penion liabilities and the increased shipping prices making Japanses steel less attractive, but I am waiting for a shakeout to rebuild positions. I went into the year with steel as one of my top 2 ideas (oil and gas being the other) and have been rewarded for taking the chance, I just have gotten uncomfortable with the speed of the run up and the consolidation in the charts here. I figure the easy money has been made, so I need to find it somewhere else now. Same thing with the shippers.

 

I'll be back in them, I just want the public to lose favor a bit.

 

IPS I totally missed, IST as well, but my shotgun approach caught a few of them so I am happy.

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Has everyone seen the latest Bernie Schaeffer piece at Schaeffer's Research? If not here is the link....Bernie's Latest

 

I have alot of respect for Bernie and have been reading his stuff for years and learning alot along the way. He is one of the most influential guys on my career, so I hold him in very high regard.

 

The piece when released was called Schaeffer on Charts: The Manipulation Continues?, but when you access now the word manipulation has been replaced with Game. That is interesting in itself, but not the point of my posting.

 

I find it very interesting that in the span of a few short days we have two very respected professionals using the term manipluation, Schaeffer in the equities markets and Embry regarding the gold pits. (I am sure you guys have all read Embry's piece by now, but just in case...Not Free, Not Fair: The Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price )

 

These are two guys that do this for a living, have seen everything thrown at them over the years and are both choosing now to talk about our "markets" not being free. I have always scoffed at the manipulation word being thrown around and usually chalked it up to people losing to an entity that is just better capitalized, informed, lucky, etc. Now I am not so sure. These are two men I respect and have seen their track records. These guys make money and have done so over stretches that makes it hard to believe it is just a hot streak. They are true life examples of those who bring alpha to the table.

 

Now they are both talking about manipulation. Are the markets really rigged? I went to the NYSE site for giggles and I didnt find one mention of the NYSE being a free market. So perhaps there isnt any lie occurring, just a widely accepted incorrect public view that the markets are free. A view that I myself am beginning to lose.

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