ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Imagine my surprise to read the posts to find such a shift to bearishness around here. It's almost enough to make me want to go long. Well almost. Trading is tough, nest paw? Even if you're LT bullish is this a buy in here or a sell? If we continue range trading for some time you will miss many opportunities to increase your position by buying and holding. On the other hand if the correction is done and you have sold hoping for lower prices you may miss the real move afraid to get back in at higher prices. There are many strategies for how to deal with this conundrum but I won't bore you wish them. And remember we have just one rule here which we call The Golden Tuesday Rule: No Quarrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Mary Mary Quite Contrary, How does your garden grow? With SILVER bells, And cockle SHELLs, And pretty maids all in a row. Get it? The magic word for the day is contrary but what would be contrary without those other con-jobs CONundrum and CONfusion. I've already discussed briefly the first two so now for a little confusion. Confused yet? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- blog From yesterday's blog: Gold breakout continues ...any pullback is a buying opportunity. From today's blog: However, we caution gold and gold mining stock traders to watch the US Dollar Index carefully and take action to protect yourself from big moves in the dollar index in coming days. US gold mining shares are particularly vulnerable to big rallies in the US Dollar Index. Even foreign gold mining shares are vulnerable even if the price of gold does go up when the foreign currency falls (witness the decline in Harmony Monday versus the rise in the price of gold in Rands). ============================================ Want to know how weird I am? Yesterday while watching my possie on the computer I also wanted to watch the olympics on the telly. This had me sitting on the sofa in front of the box with binoculars so I could see what was happening on the computer at the other end of the room. It worked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 A few months back I said ignore news you can't trade on it and a lively discussion ensued. I never felt I really stressed my point owing to my own er er unwordiness so I'd like to add the following from the famous Joe Granville: Traders and investors get into more trouble and make more expensive wrong decisions by following news than for any other reason. So heavily influenced by the news, the majority get lost in the maze, unable to see what the smart money is doing. News is also important to the smart money because they understand the role news plays in the market game, and they can usually act more effectively under the protective cover of news. They know that the news misleads the opposing game players into selling them when the smart money wishes to buy and into buying their stocks when the smart money decides that the time has arrived for distribution. As a market aid, news is of little or no value in playing the market game successfully. News is generally for suckers. It misleads more often than it guides. It creates mistimed fears which provoke selling at the wrong time and raises hopes which encourage the buying of stocks at the wrong time. The reason why news has very little relationship to what the market is going to do is simply because the market is moving on tomorrow's news, and thus the current news is a stale factor to the market; It is the out-of-step timing between news reporting and market action that enables the market game to be played so successfully by the smart money, preying on the public's over-reliance on current news as a guide to what the market is going to do. This I shamelessly lifted from The Strong Economy Hook! by Marc Faber which I urge you to peruse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 As I write this the POG has completely retraced Friday's end of scam week thrust. Gives new meaning to the term BS. The flying fickle finger of fate. But have no fear I have a bullish thingie for y'all. Taylor On The Markets, US$ & Gold Gold now rests back on the the power uptrend line that has been in force for over a week. Well it was! I just rechecked and we've popped under. A-OO-Gah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Speaking as a fish and a Jakartonian I find this a little disturbing: Newman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Back to the original theme which is contrarianism. Hulbert in my opinion is the best here. Check out his latest which remarkably perfectly meshes with today's theme. Hulbert Transform Note from DorAss: ThorAss really should be out mowing the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 A bearish candle indeed. Having sold some on friday, it didn't make sense for me to sell yesterday. I assumed 212 (225dma) as resistance (read sell zone) and 202/203 as support zone. Yesterday we got to 203, while the steep channel is still intact. However a close below 202/203 would be bearish, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 I am going to make a concerted effort not to read anyone's comments on any markets. One thing I have had drummed into me this year is nobody really knows jack. Make my own mistakes thanks. I agree. That's the only way to learn something lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Haven't update the scan of bullish PMS stocks for a couple of days. Previously we had 11, I think. Now: AAUK Anglo American Pls NASD 23.280 23.450 23.080 23.180 96085 AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. NYSE 13.810 13.810 13.290 13.470 468400 CBJ Cambior, Inc. AMEX 3.050 3.050 2.870 2.940 588600 GLG Glamis Gold Ltd. NYSE 16.790 16.850 16.410 16.480 889200 GRZ Gold Reserve Inc. AMEX 3.780 3.850 3.730 3.730 53000 IAG IAMGOLD Corp. AMEX 7.370 7.370 7.040 7.200 325300 KRY Crystallex Intl Corp. AMEX 2.800 2.830 2.750 2.750 191300 MGN Mines Management Inc. AMEX 5.840 5.930 5.530 5.580 87300 NEM Newmont Mining Corp. NYSE 43.880 43.990 43.460 43.770 3939800 PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. NASD 14.800 14.800 14.350 14.460 656619 PD Phelps Dodge Corp. NYSE 79.970 81.010 77.760 77.920 1726100 PDG Placer Dome, Inc. NYSE 17.500 17.510 16.960 17.120 1335700 SIL Apex Silver Mines Ltd. AMEX 20.200 20.200 19.370 19.450 319000 SSRI Silver Standard Resources, Inc. NASD 14.160 14.370 13.880 14.000 731366 SWC Stillwater Mining Co. NYSE 14.850 14.910 14.060 14.320 284100 WHT Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. AMEX 2.790 2.820 2.730 2.770 2122400 WTZ Western Silver Corp. AMEX 7.000 7.190 6.820 7.070 311200 That's 17. Out of 60 some. ThorAss defines as bullish a stock trading above its 50 dEMA which itself is trading above its 200dEMA with an RSI above 50. You could do far worse than only holding stocks which meet these simple criteria. Won't catch you any bottoms but it could keep you out of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 I am going to make a concerted effort not to read anyone's comments on any markets. One thing I have had drummed into me this year is nobody really knows jack. Make my own mistakes thanks. I agree. That's the only way to learn something lasting. Oh Mirth! Oh merriment! Then why on earth come here, tfh? Just to post and ignore all the other posts? Personally, I do the exact opposite but then that is my nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Man Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Maxxi: your Dollar charts yesterday were very interesting. Also, I find it hard to agree with John, but appreciate you posting his charts. He is not such a bad person, to disgaree with. If you know what I mean. Ageka: Regarding who prepares the coffee, I guess we'll sort that one out next time. Although, I could use some now. BTW, could you post that intraday dollar and euro chart of yours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Well it seems the French are now buying and selling their gold in Belgium, Luxemburg, Switzerland, Italy and Spain because of an 8% gold tax Belgium at one time tried a 3% goldtax and found out there was hardly any tradings anymore , ( Luxemburg is an average 2 hours drive for many Belgians) Snippet from Article from the Financial times By Paul Betts Published: August 20 2004 05:00 Financial Times Quote ...., these coins and bars had to be physically delivered, so traders, unlike in London and New York, could not deal in paper. ....came to a close this month when pan-European stock exchange Euronext suspended the market until further notice because of a dearth of operators. An 8 per cent sales tax has hurt trade, causing sellers to travel abroad to sell their gold. unquote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Just started a run thru of DrAu's Pubic Fart Lisp and the first thing that jumped out at me and shook me by the horns was the POG(Yiros). Here we have had a peak (at around 3.48) every 7 months or so since the "Gold Bull" began 46 months ago. Set against the backdrop of a gently rising support line the POG(Yiros) has periodically spiked up to the 3.40-3.50 area before usually falling right back down to support. We did this is spades last August and seem to be repeating this August as well. I'm still expecting my Sept 1 high and this may correspond with a POG(Yiro) high at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Putting a VAT or sales tax on gold is laughable. Imagine if they put one on stocks. You would have to pay a 20% tax every time you bought or sold any stock or security. Not a capital gains tax just a straight tax on the purchase price. When you think of it, all sales taxes are just a form of theft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ageka Posted August 24, 2004 Report Share Posted August 24, 2004 Thor For some or other reason the price of gold London pm looks different then the synthetic charts that devide the dollar price by the dollar exchange rate But your remark is correct we are in a Long Term uptrend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.