Guest Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 Gold moved in all major currencies today! Later tonight or possibly tomorrow when I have some time, I'll try posting a few charts to help explain why gold will continue to head up without beating the dead horse, US dollar ? aside from occasional bear market relief rallies, it's toast. Looking forward to it my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 $hui:$gold and $hui:$xoi and $hui:$usd on the weekly charts look at the bullish engulfing candles.... look a the longe term downsloping T line that was broken on the price charts RSI and MACD. MACD histo went positive and we had a crossover as well. A rising ratio means that the HUI is outperforming. Where are we in the market with respect to the miners? We are still in the base building phase for the most part. We have had several leaders break above local reisitance levels on above average volume. These same leaders also put in doji candles or red candles on Friday. These breakouts are the first signs that we are moving from the base building phase to the breakout phase. Going back to the red candles and dojis on the leading group. This group is now in the position to test the breakout to confirm that this was not a FAKEOUT. Folks who took some profits on partial positions into strength late this week have traded with Finesse IMO. Kudos and congrats. Looking forward then we need the leaders to test on light volume the breakout areas.... NEM for example has to come back and test the middle 42's. On declining volume. The group that is right behind the leaders... my proxy for this group is EGO... must prepare for its breakout phase. The phase that follows the breakout phase is the markup phase. You have to be positioned prior to this phase or else you will be on the outside looking in. The mark up phase will tak us to new highs on the leading group. For example NEM @ 53-55. The option lads and lassies may use the BO retest as an opp to add some long dated calls. Also T Bill secure put writes on NEM at 40.00 .... up to 3 month maturity looks like a winning proposition. To the bears..... The bulls don't have control yet so it is not a full certainty that we will get to the mark up phase at the present time. My probablity that we will get to the mark up phase is currently about 60 -40 that we will. A succesful BO retest and the probability that the mark up phase will happen increases. Last point. The cycles favour a strong POG and commodities in general this fall winter-period. There will be some tremendous gains to be had outside the gold arena as well IMO. best wishes to all the traders out there >>longfellows and short people alike AB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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traderfromhell Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 Moon Man, Re: owning gold stocks vs bullion. Wouldn't you be really pissed off if you were right on your call of higher gold prices but the junior miners in your portfolio blew up because of bad management, overstating reserves, political and legal issues, currency losses etc. Or what if the company stock in your portfolio was being used to acquire another company at a hefty premium. Gold is a currency which is no one else's liability. I think annual gold production adds about 2% to existing supplies. At what pace is money supply growing? I asked myself why I owned gold stocks last year and came to the conclusion it was because I thought the economy was in dire straits. You know... all that fundamental stuff but I realised I would've been just as well off playing the Nasdaq off the March lows as being in the XAU. My fundamental view hasn't changed and to this day I'm still converting trading profits to physical gold. Ask yourself what will happen to gold stocks if we have another stock market crash. The risk is that everything will be sold. Your physical will be safe?. You are in Thailand, right? I had a great time talking with jewellers in Thailand on my last visit. Most of their gold chains are 22 karat and prices are set in relationship to the price of gold. So they charge you by how much it weighs and not by design and workmanship. For investment purposes though, I'd recommend Krugerrands which carry the least premium to the spot price. I have allocated 10% of my portfolio to precious metals. Says it all. Bravo Maxxi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 I have had a look at about 50 stocks made up of seniors mid tiers juniors late atage spec middle stage spec. Avoided the grass root stage. The sample showed me 11 stocks that have just had breakouts. 22 stocks in the base building phase and 17 stocks that have just bottomed. random points >>> looking at the seniors NEM is a BO BVN is a BB ABX is a Bottoming stk Mid tiers GG is a BO KGC is a BB BGO is a bottom late stage spec NG is a BO KRY.to is a BB GBU.to is a Bottom South africans GFI is a BO HMY is a BB RANGY is a bottom the charts with the most promise of leadership inn the next upleg include PCU inverse head and shoulders wowza..... CCJ BHP TEK/B.to NEM SSRI PDG notice we have Au Ag Cu and base metals here....Uranium as well>>> which is a strong group at the moment. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 COT data shows not much change from the week before in the GC. OI is still very low so the slight increase in the commercials short position means very little IMO. They are flat the SF >>> a nice positive for gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 $hui:$gold and $hui:$xoi and $hui:$usd on the weekly charts look at the bullish engulfing candles.... look a the longe term downsloping T line that was broken on the price charts RSI and MACD. MACD histo went positive and we had a crossover as well. A rising ratio means that the HUI is outperforming. Where are we in the market with respect to the miners? We are still in the base building phase for the most part. We have had several leaders break above local reisitance levels on above average volume. These same leaders also put in doji candles or red candles on Friday. These breakouts are the first signs that we are moving from the base building phase to the breakout phase. Going back to the red candles and dojis on the leading group. This group is now in the position to test the breakout to confirm that this was not a FAKEOUT. Folks who took some profits on partial positions into strength late this week have traded with Finesse IMO. Kudos and congrats. Looking forward then we need the leaders to test on light volume the breakout areas.... NEM for example has to come back and test the middle 42's. On declining volume. The group that is right behind the leaders... my proxy for this group is EGO... must prepare for its breakout phase. The phase that follows the breakout phase is the markup phase. You have to be positioned prior to this phase or else you will be on the outside looking in. The mark up phase will tak us to new highs on the leading group. For example NEM @ 53-55. The option lads and lassies may use the BO retest as an opp to add some long dated calls. Also T Bill secure put writes on NEM at 40.00 .... up to 3 month maturity looks like a winning proposition. To the bears..... The bulls don't have control yet so it is not a full certainty that we will get to the mark up phase at the present time. My probablity that we will get to the mark up phase is currently about 60 -40 that we will. A succesful BO retest and the probability that the mark up phase will happen increases. Last point. The cycles favour a strong POG and commodities in general this fall winter-period. There will be some tremendous gains to be had outside the gold arena as well IMO. best wishes to all the traders out there >>longfellows and short people alike AB AB. Thanks for this, we are on the same page here... CG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 Thanks TCG. Nice list and good to have another 'regular' on board. I'll be around for awhile... TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 looking for spec issues that are showing some sparks.... lets call these lottery tickets if you like.... MAG.v ETG.v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 looking for spec issues that are showing some sparks.... lets call these lottery tickets if you like.... MAG.v ETG.v Cheap uranium issue. Broke out to new all time highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 looking for spec issues that are showing some sparks.... lets call these lottery tickets if you like.... MAG.v ETG.v Cheap uranium issue. Broke out to new all time highs. nice TFH... i will raise you.... JNN.v uranium spec play.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 looking for spec issues that are showing some sparks.... lets call these lottery tickets if you like.... MAG.v ETG.v Cheap uranium issue. Broke out to new all time highs. nice TFH... i will raise you.... JNN.v uranium spec play.... Extremely similar patterns. The one thing they both have in common is the fact that Friday's moves to higher price highs were not confirmed in volume. I think you guys are right to expect a lower volume retest of the breakouts in the miners. Then we go up hard in the seasonally strong period dead ahead. This should be an interesting few months coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderfromhell Posted August 21, 2004 Report Share Posted August 21, 2004 This is really not a new idea but I think we need to keep it in mind. We have been in a large trading range in Gold between 300-400 dollars with a few trips above and below the highs and lows of the range for brief periods of time. Once Gold takes out the double top around 430 we will start to see an increase in volatility and some large price gains. Once over the 430-440 area Gold will be in an extremely strong position. Crossing 50% of the all time highs will put the bull firmly in charge. Patience will be rewarded long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manipulated Posted August 22, 2004 Report Share Posted August 22, 2004 Some people hear something and then give a complete different interpretation Long term core inflation is related to price of silver and gold This model was used by Agfa Gevaert for deciding how much ( stock ) silver to buy for their photofilms Of course the price of oil is also related to the inflation But to give this as an explanation is of course wrong since the study of Agfa Gevaert showed a delay of 6 to 8 quarters Ageka....you may have touched the answer (Gevaert was right, but not in a "timely" fashion)......if you believe the "markets" are a discounting mechanism......if you believe the "markets" foretell/portend what is coming within the next 6-12 months.....then, yes, we're in the 6-8 quarter time frame you mention.......especially with oil near $50/barrel and with any pullbacks, it'll all be bought up before it hits $40/barrel any time soon....... ..........the last time OIL was consistently below $30/barrel was November 2003......it's been steadily climbing ever since.........and due to the funnymentals, i don't think we'll see <$35/barrel ever again.......so, it's gotta be inflationary/bullish for gold....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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