Moon Man Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 Had to buy this stock. (Amex:AUY, TSX:YRI) Good luck to you all, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 What a Great day for those who bottom fished... Congrats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 What a Great day for those who bottom fished... Congrats... Assuming, of course that they bottom fished for the first time at levels below where we are now and exit at levels above where they did the fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 Thor.. yes, obviously of course ...; and especially in comparison to those who missed this move almost in its entirety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 I've only missed it for the most part by an extra moment's hesitation like today. NEM: Another beautiful long set up and 100 points BANG! Unfortunately I missed the entry and once again chose not to chase it. Another entry point also refused and the model makes $1.20. mEANWHILE i'M MAKING A MISERLY 10 cents long the SMegH (in which I had to suffer nearly that much draw down first.) Anyway, back to the PMS. Since there is no downside risk, prices are being pushed up rather quickly. Lots of cash on the sidelines being put to work, no doubt. And climbing that essential Wall of Worry, methinks! One resistance level after another will fall by the wayside. There is no looking back now. Ain't life grand when things are goin' your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 Thor.. yes, obviously of course ...; and especially in comparison to those who missed this move almost in its entirety. I guess the Doc didn't. Hadj - you definitely need to learn a little less kind, and alot more cynical and bitter. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 Awesome candle on the XAU today. I just got an email from my broker with a metals update. She tells me that the golds have been in an accumulation phase equal to the distribution phase at the top. She didn't suggest I'd buy any but I'm sure a lot of other folks are getting buy recommendations now. Of course that'll be the short term top before the XAU pulls back to fill the gaps. The XAU has already come from a low of 77 to 94 today. There's no doubt in my mind that today is a bad day to buy gold stocks. If you already own them - congratulations! Here's what I'd do if I owned gold stocks. I'd put a stop at the bottom of the last gap. That way if the stocks are coming back to fill all three gaps you won't have to sit through the retracement. On the other hand, if volume is big today then you may have gap support. Remember, gaps are swing points. XAU is a 3-gap play for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 A Central that actually buys gold? Whoda Thunk it? Argentina Cenbank 'positive on gold' for reserves TCG P.S. Didn't know they still had money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 "'Hadj - you definitely need to learn a little less kind, and alot more cynical and bitter" I don't know nuttin and have no valuable insight.. just counting my own wallet and trying to take it through day by day ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 Anybody who owns CAU needs to get out now. Montana just shut down their mine again.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anjing bau Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 AB... quietly lying on the rug by the fireplace patiently awaitng a fed ex package from Nebarksa with some ANGUS in it for him..... TCG..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 I don't know nuttin and have no valuable insight.. just counting my own wallet and trying to take it through day by day ... You and me both. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted August 19, 2004 Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 AB... quietly lying on the rug by the fireplace patiently awaitng a fed ex package from Nebarksa with some ANGUS in it for him..... TCG..... Were kinda backwards folks out here AB, my foreman's still out back of the pole building trying to coax Bessy into the box....your covering the freight right? Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 I'm getting the general impression that some of you out there in Stool Land think that I predicted a fall in the PMS rather than this rally. Nothing could be further from the tooth. Last Thurs: It was written (by me) that on a gap down open today, it should be shorted and a gap up bought and if we opened in range, well do nothing. As it happened NEM opened a little above the close then shot up to close the gap left open yesterday. This was done in the absence of any sellers. I said this is Cack and fired in a market short order which managed to get done 1 cent below the HOD. This is indicative of panic buying with no sellers. However, the sellers then arrived and quickly pushed it back down through the open and it didn't stop until it hit yesterday's low. There was an interesting symmetrical triangle formed around yesterday's value area but this resolved to the downside. We are now moving up tenuously in a parallel sided channel. I have closed my shorts and am staring off into space. .... the final frontier. Friday: Having started with a big bang I'd like to concentrate on some of the more bullish aspects. The PMS as measured by the Zow is still in a nice uptrend and people with a multi-year time frame should still be long. A break below 75 would mark the exit. This model has flipped to UP on the Hooey Daily but remains DOWN on the Weekly. I can go along with that. The PMS indices put in bullish belt hold candles yesterday but I find them (belt holds) pretty unreliabull as indicators of trend reversal. And since no clear cut downtrend is evident on the dailys I'd hazard it ain't telling us nothing. Remember what I wrote. CBJ gaps up ie opens 2.80 or higher we have a playabull bounce. Buy something. On the ST horizon I don't see any reason why the Zow can't take a stab at 93. But since I have my horns on I won't trouble you with the implications of a failure at 90 and the 200dEMA. ...earlier today. And why I don't and didn't have any shorts on. The short-term bullishness was evident. It's the intermediate to longer I wonder about. I'm not fussed either way. I'm still mostly in daytrade mode until we get an uptrend going. Can't see holding short for long. Thanks! I had a bid on early in both CBJ and BGO but decided not to chase them. So far that wasn't smart. Monday SMH and NEM Long and Long Tuesday I hate to say it but the action today says to me some kind of top isn't far away. If so, maybe the pullback will just be the kind of one designed to get the smart rich people looking smarter and richer. It would seem that nobody is trying to push the price down. Just waiting for it to rise to them. Was long NEM but am now flat. Really should have stayed with it. Can't say I had a good enough reason to close. Been played with the OBV (On Balance Volume) with NEM. Very interesting and very encouraging if you are of the bullish persuasion. Doesn't tell me another pullback isn't coming just that it is likely that higher prices lie beyond. Gold going down in the after hours then whooping it up on the NY open. Seems like the opposite of the good old days. The patterns all look pretty good but maybe too far too fast. Still Hooey had a run of like 11 up days coming out of the May low. Three days of bullish only candles. We've gone from Duck Soup to A Day at the Races. Wednesday Anyway, I'd forgotten why I checked in. It was to say that it would be no real surprise if we closed just below the 200 dEMA on the Zow which is just above 90. Then if we continued to play around here it would probably mark at least a ST top. However, it could also just gap right past it or on an open or even on today's close. It will all depend on gold which seems to depend on the misfortunes of Uncle Buck. Anyway, who was holding the ticket for 90 then down. You're looking at least in with a chance. Oh that's right nobody. The only ones left are the 3 who choose 93 and beyond. Not one sucker picked 93 then down. NEM: Gave a long set up this morning and a pretty good one on a short sharp pullback to the midpoint but no confirmation. Now going sideways. Better to be long than short here IMO. However, I hesitated for a second and missed the trade Que sera. Not too worry as lots of action (not in superconductors but semiconductors) Silicon, the "other" white meat. NEM: Dateline Wall Street: ThorAss'sss early hesitation pays dividends. Well we're not at the Stop but we're bloody close. Too far too fast again I guess. Looks like gold probably needs to at least do a little back and filling, retest 400? Besides Mahendra needs to be proven totally wrong on his outrageous prediction or possibly the world will shift on its axis or at least my perception of reality will. Well NEM went down just far enough to set off my model's STOP then recovered sufficiently to break today's well established downtrend line. Presently farting about indecisively in an OpEx week kind of way. Oh John, I'm glad we waited! This action is what I discussed yesterday. The Zow and Hooey farting about at their respective 200dEMA. If it continues until Friday then we can expect a move down low and away for STEEEEEEEEEEEEEEErike 3 and you're out on Monday. Just thought of a possibility which seems to fit with all my expectations. Maybe what we're headed for in the PMS is the old 3 peaks and a domed house. Let's say the Zow (fur instance) peaks out around 93 to give us our turd peak then retraces some then in September while gold heads up to what I figure may be the highest high for some time (assuming my LT predictions hold) then we may have an underperforming PMS suctor making a rounded top (the domed house) before a sell-off lasting until at least late in the year. Maybe in conjunction with a concerted effort to shore up the dollar for the erections or deflation fears or whatever. Just a thought ... or two. And I don't presume to KNOW where gold is heading in the next 28 hours, or this month or next. I only predict what may happen based on past patterns as I see them. If gold breaks out above $433 then great but what I see is a scenario in which the charts are saying one thing could happen that contradicts what the fundamentals seem to dictate must happen. Well, we've waited for something to happen and sure some things have happened but not enough for me to really make any long term bets so I sit, wait and daytrade. I see that NEM will join the mod squad today as the 50 dEMA should make the bullish crossing of the 200dEMA. The other criteria are already in place. However, I expect trouble for NEM trying to get through 43. Should that be overcome the next target will be near 45. The absolutely most likely day for this to occur is Wed Sept 1. Okay so that's my Mahendra, I mean prediction. That is, if we can overcome and remain above $43 in the near term then NEM will reach a high of ~$45 on the first of Sept. Gold will peak out at around that time maybe a little later at between $410 and $420. Anyway if we're going to over $1000 on gold why sweat the next $30. Playing the breakout is generally a more profitabull proposition compared to bottom fishing. Just so people know that buying in here is not the sure thing I have read many words written about recently, I present the downside and I present this as the most likely case because that's what the patterns are telling me. Of course this could all end badly for me but I'm willing to wait. Think as the upside breakout as my "alternative count". ==================================================== Anyway, that's my relevant posts for the last week. They're starting to get a little more neutral now but were all bullish when I thought we'd turned on Thursday. You can rub it in my face if we don't turn down in early Sept. Hey, I don't half write a load of shit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2004 AB... quietly lying on the rug by the fireplace patiently awaitng a fed ex package from Nebarksa with some ANGUS in it for him..... TCG..... Don't bite the courier!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.