Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 B.C. farmers call for massive cull of birds CTV.ca News Staff As the avian flu outbreak in British Columbia's Fraser Valley grows ever larger, poultry producers say it may be necessary to slaughter as many as 16 million birds to keep the highly-contagious virus in check. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency said Friday that traces of avian flu have been found at 18 farms in the Fraser Valley, up from seven farms just one day earlier. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...hub=CTVNewsAt11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 someone may want to close the Fryday thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 I get puzzled by those who are Bearish but go long because of the fear they will be "shanked." If one is careful playing the bear side you don't get shanked very often. In fact you can make good coin consistently on the short side by being respectful of support and resistance and using tight stops until you get into a breakeven position and then using trailing stops as the trend goes in your favor. There are at least 3 times most days when a Bear can ride a trend. Depends method of hedging long and short is good as well. If you are not a day trader than in my opinion you stand a good chance of getting "shanked." As Summoner often says this ain't your mothers market. Stinky who is a relative Newbie shorts via funds which is also a good idea. To me the most dangerous is being long anything other than gold, silver, NG or Oil sure you may be lucky enough to catch a day like yesterday or unlucky enough to have the reverse happen. I think when a Bear questions wether or not this is a Bear market then the iron will and patience to trade on the short side goes out the window. Trying to trade both sides is deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 bullybears everywhere...getting that warm and fuzzy feeling...its all up to shorts covering, per a few newsletter writers today. I guess I'm not so sure. Between next week's Fed auctions and margin calls for those caught in the bond/currency backwash (many of whom were hedged w/ equities), I'm comfortable with some sort of pullback next week. Beyond that, it depends on how deep the bond rabbit hole goes. Three major blowouts in as many years (for a 20 year bull market), for a group that used to make bankers look like wild untamed party animals by comparison, sounds topish to me. Does Bill Gross look like a bungie jumper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Lou-I think you have summed it up well, you simply cannot have that kind of carnage in the Bond markets without a reaction in the stock market. Monday is also a full moon, which is generally a sharp reversal of the previous trend. We don't have long to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Thanks for the warning, Brian4. I'll stay short as long as the absurd 5-day ARMS is in the basement, but the next time we get a selling climax and two or three huge TRIN readings, I won't hesitate going long on a bounce. I do not have the stomach to fight the Plutocrats, the Repo Surges, the Lies, etc. So far, I'll stay flexible and play both sides. Its better to keep my head clear to be on the right side of the trade, up or down.... Especially when the Zoo continues to be populated by Giraffes and Dinosaurs like these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Canada on Washington's worst trade list Damn Canucks! WASHINGTON (AP) - President George W. Bush's administration cited 55 countries Thursday, including Canada, in its annual review of countries it alleges have the worst trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters. The report, which also named three trading groups, is intended to guide administration negotiating strategy in the coming year in attacking alleged barriers that are causing the greatest harm to U.S. companies http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2004/04/01/404972-ap.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 All kidding aside, all this pissing into the wind on trade barriers really is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 I know you're kidding Sleddy-But this trade crap is all about jobs and that is why Shrub does what he does. We have a free trade agreement with the U.S. signed by both Governments so what barriers is he talking about. We currently have zero tariffs or embargoes on any American product. Bush however has slapped a tariff on our lumber which has caused a lot of our mills to go broke. To reverse that ruling with the WTO you have to win 3 challenges, Canada has already won the first two and is awaiting the 3rd. It will mean Bush ultimately will have to refund nearly a Billion $ in duties currently held in escrow to the Canadian timber Companies and it will be back to biz as usual, then he will move on to something else. We haven't retaliated ...yet but the EU has what those boneheads on both sides of the aisle in Washington have to understand is America has the most to lose if a real Trade War erupts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 I get puzzled by those who are Bearish but go long because of the fear they will be "shanked." If one is careful playing the bear side you don't get shanked very often. In fact you can make good coin consistently on the short side by being respectful of support and resistance and using tight stops until you get into a breakeven position and then using trailing stops as the trend goes in your favor. There are at least 3 times most days when a Bear can ride a trend. Depends method of hedging long and short is good as well. If you are not a day trader than in my opinion you stand a good chance of getting "shanked." As Summoner often says this ain't your mothers market. Stinky who is a relative Newbie shorts via funds which is also a good idea. To me the most dangerous is being long anything other than gold, silver, NG or Oil sure you may be lucky enough to catch a day like yesterday or unlucky enough to have the reverse happen. I think when a Bear questions wether or not this is a Bear market then the iron will and patience to trade on the short side goes out the window. Trying to trade both sides is deadly. "Trying to trade both sides is deadly" B4 I do exactly that. My whole trading system is based on trading both sides, whether in a bull or bear trend. I do consistently scalp short in uptrends and vice versa. IMHO to not work both sides greatly limits one's returns as scary as it can be to place those kinds of trades. I do not day trade. Many people do but I find that it is simply too frenetic for me. IMO the idea is to trade the markets without being a prisoner to them. The only time that I look at the markets with a close eye is in the last half hour. Last week a couple of you were talking about the risk being to the bulls. Conceptually I agree with you (for fundamental reasons). However the reality has been somewhat different. Crashes by and large don't come out of the blue. Even the 1987 crash occurred from the 200 dma on down. If you had been short for example from the 50 dma, you would have been on the right side of the trade in time to catch the action. Fundamentally I am a bear. And that is not going to change. But since March 2003 the trend with the exception of a few days has been up. Hopefully that is in the process of turning around now. But it is not wise to trade hope. It is smarter to trade price and volume. You have a system that works for you. Profit is profit and far be it for me to say what you should and shouldn't do. I guess what I am trying to say is that there are a couple of different ways to skin a cat (apologies to cat lovers out there-I'm not one of them ) By the way my scalp signal was screaming short at yesterdays close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Lou-I think you have summed it up well, you simply cannot have that kind of carnage in the Bond markets without a reaction in the stock market. Monday is also a full moon, which is generally a sharp reversal of the previous trend. We don't have long to wait. Full moons usually result in a *strong* continuation of the prevailing trend not a reversal. I this case its UUUUUUP. I can't wait to short this pig but I dont think now is the time. However I may just be plain wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 I get puzzled by those who are Bearish but go long because of the fear they will be "shanked."? If one is careful playing the bear side you don't get shanked very often.? In fact you can make good coin consistently on the short side by being respectful of support and resistance and using tight stops until you get into a breakeven position and then using trailing stops as the trend goes in your favor.? There are at least 3 times most days when a Bear can ride a trend.? Depends method of hedging long and short is good as well.? If you are not a day trader than in my opinion you stand a good chance of getting "shanked."? As Summoner often says this ain't your mothers market.? Stinky who is a relative Newbie shorts via funds which is also a good idea.? To me the most dangerous is being long anything other than gold, silver, NG or Oil sure you may be lucky enough to catch a day like yesterday or unlucky enough to have the reverse happen.? I think when a Bear questions wether or not this is a Bear market then the iron will and patience to trade on the short side goes out the window.? Trying to trade both sides is deadly. "Trying to trade both sides is deadly" B4 I do exactly that. My whole trading system is based on trading both sides, whether in a bull or bear trend. I do consistently scalp short in uptrends and vice versa. IMHO to not work both sides greatly limits one's returns as scary as it can be to place those kinds of trades. I do not day trade. Many people do but I find that it is simply too frenetic for me. IMO the idea is to trade the markets without being a prisoner to them. The only time that I look at the markets with a close eye is in the last half hour. Last week a couple of you were talking about the risk being to the bulls. Conceptually I agree with you (for fundamental reasons). However the reality has been somewhat different. Crashes by and large don't come out of the blue. Even the 1987 crash occurred from the 200 dma on down. If you had been short for example from the 50 dma, you would have been on the right side of the trade in time to catch the action. Fundamentally I am a bear. And that is not going to change. But since March 2003 the trend with the exception of a few days has been up. Hopefully that is in the process of turning around now. But it is not wise to trade hope. It is smarter to trade price and volume. You have a system that works for you. Profit is profit and far be it for me to say what you should and shouldn't do. I guess what I am trying to say is that there are a couple of different ways to skin a cat (apologies to cat lovers out there-I'm not one of them ) By the way my scalp signal was screaming short at yesterdays close. I agree 100% .... amazing to see someone that trades exactly the way I do but I guess several people trade this way. Swing Trades on the dark side or the bear side... its all the same profits. However the bear in me cant wait to get short for a true plunge. ...soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Is it true that the new CPI data used to determine the CPI numbers DO NOT use home prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 WH- I couldn't agree more with what you said-although I think you may have misunderstood what I said. Yes like you I scalp short both up and downtrands, I simply do not long an uptrend other than in the commodes I mentioned. Killa may have misunderstood what you and I were saying. If swing works for him fine but in a Bear market I wouldn't touch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 3, 2004 Report Share Posted April 3, 2004 Over the past few months I have often commented that I see a Goods and Services tax in America's future ( Canada and Europe have long had such a beast). John Maudlin in todays letter quotes two very bright guys who are recommending one for America starting at 12%-it is a real good read. By the way Maudlin agrees that such a tax would save Social Security but fears it would harm retail sales. Not true Johnny the countries that have a consumption tax mirror the U.S. retail sales, the tax does nothing to stop the Consumer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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