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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, February 17


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4:07pm 02/17/04

U.S. producer price index delayed By Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. Labor Department won't release the January producer price index on Thursday as scheduled. "The Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce a revised date for the release as soon as possible," the government said Tuesday. The BLS statement said the government was having "unexpected difficulties" in switching its data to a newer industrial classification system.

Bwahahahaha. IOW, they didn't like the data and they're fixing it. :huh:

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But before I leave,  the sentiment has neve been this bullish,; EVER>

Soup,

 

Sorry if that rubbed you the wrong way.

 

However, I'll ask you one thing about sentiment - Prove that this is the Bullish-est it has ever been.

 

 

Take care....

Silky, I think there are alot of things pointing to very high bullishness. Mutual fund inflows, mutual fund cash level, insider selling, AAII surveys to name a few.

 

According to the AAII survey for the week ended Feb 11, the ratio of bulls/bears increased to 3.8:1 from 2.3:1. The percentage of investors self-identified as bears declined to 14.6% from 21.8%.

 

However, there are a couple things that are standing in the bears' way. As you point out, the specialist short ratio is one.

 

Although I think we go higher at least through the summer, I'm not bullish right here. I think we're going to get a correction. So I'm hoping for a gap up tomorrow that I plan to short. If it does a gap and go though, I'll cover and go long as I think the correction goes out the window at that point.

 

I had a turn window between the 12th and 17th. I thought we nailed it on the 12th. Looks like tomorrow is it now. I just hope it's down. :)

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Systemax Announces Layoffs

February 17, 2004, 4:42 PM EST

There aren't as many Systemax Guys--and gals--as there used to be.

 

The Port Washington based computer retailer announced Tuesday that it was eliminating about 200 jobs, 50 of them on Long Island, primarily in "back office' operations.

 

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-biz-sys...iness-headlines

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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/FB18Dh01.html

 

Japan buys more chip-making gear than N America

 

TOKYO - The value of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment sold to Japan in 2003 totaled $5.53 billion, up 42.3 percent on the year, according to statistics available Monday from the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan and elsewhere.

 

The amount for Japan was the highest this year and put the nation in the top spot for the first time since 1996, pushing North America into second place.

 

Sales of equipment used in early-stage chip processing, including wafer-processing equipment, helped boost domestic sales.

 

Japanese semiconductor manufacturers have been making large-scale investments due to the increase in production of digital consumer electronics.

 

North American sales came to $4.72 billion, down 20.1 percent on the year on reduced capital spending by chipmakers.

 

The value for South Korea showed year-on-year growth of close to 90 percent, reflecting continued strong capital spending.

 

Worldwide sales came to $22.1 billion, up 11.9 percent on the year and showing a year-on-year gain for the first time in three years.

 

(Asia Pulse/Nikkei)

I wonder how much of that equipment is ending up in their new Chinese factories?

The Chinese will destroy the chip market within 3 years.

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BearHugs............Tenatively, I'm looking for Friday..Options Xperation..

to possibly kick off a reversal...............................................

 

I think this week they are going to slam and jam..right up to sometime

during Friday.

 

I think we get the 1170 area...and then DROP..............

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Silky, I think there are alot of things pointing to very high bullishness. Mutual fund inflows, mutual fund cash level, insider selling, AAII surveys to name a few.

Bearhugs,

 

I too have a very mixed picture. The Bull/Bear ratio, AAII, MarketVane are all in very high territory, which would be a bearish sign (but what people say and what they do are different...)

 

Others like

1. Rydex Nova/Ursa - at .39, while mildly bullish, is faar from being extreme (2 + in 99-00)

2. Put/Call - while has trended down in 04 without a single 1+ reading, in 99-00 it printed sub .50 over 100 times. So, while bullish, is still not extreme

3. Insider selling - is very high, but is not a good timing indicator.

 

I bet against Pub/Spec short ratio twice in this rally - and lost. Cannot do it again.

 

Personally, will wait for 4-5 distribution days, breakdown of 50MA and a failed attempt to retake it - and only then will the general disposition change to bearishness. Till then, buy breakouts, short breakdown (but have not been very successful as the breakdown all morph into melt-ups) or stand aside.

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I've gotta side with Bearhugs and Soup here- bullishness is rampant in almost every indicator-for 6 straight weeks in the COT reports the Commercials have been as delta neutral as you can get. They are normally very long or very short. That tells me they don't like the bullishness here and are expecting a breakdown which is long overdue. Normal rotations top to bottome are 6 to 8 weeks in this case no correction since August which is a record. THEY know the market is pushing on a string. ;)

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Brian,

 

Here's another biggie!!

 

5:22pm 02/17/04

Tyson to cut 6,000 jobs (TSN) By William Spain

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- In an attempt to rein in costs, Tyson Foods will cut its work force by 5 percent, or about 6,000 people, "primarily through attrition," the company told a Tuesday gathering of anal cysts in Arizona. The meat behemoth will also spend almost $70 million to further automate some of its facilities this year, company executives told the Consumer anal cyst Group of New York conference in Scottsdale. Shares of Tyson (TSN) , hit earlier by a federal jury's recommendation of $1.3 billion in damages in a cattle-price-manipulation case, closed down 1 percent at $16.21.

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Brian,

 

Here's another biggie!!

 

5:22pm 02/17/04

Tyson to cut 6,000 jobs (TSN) By William Spain

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- In an attempt to rein in costs, Tyson Foods will cut its work force by 5 percent, or about 6,000 people, "primarily through attrition," the company told a Tuesday gathering of anal cysts in Arizona. The meat behemoth will also spend almost $70 million to further automate some of its facilities this year, company executives told the Consumer anal cyst Group of New York conference in Scottsdale. Shares of Tyson (TSN) , hit earlier by a federal jury's recommendation of $1.3 billion in damages in a cattle-price-manipulation case, closed down 1 percent at $16.21.

"primarily through attrition,"

 

Does "accidentally" slipping and falling into the grinder count as attrition? :lol:

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