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PMS Weak End Upchuck for Oct 4,5

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7, here's a writeup by Rodin on Silver. Maybe he can help you get a handle on Silver chart...... hehehe :wink2:



He's using the same cycle for gold as I do - he's surely a genius :lol:


Great find!

My inferiority errrr .... superiority complex.... is not as good as yours.


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If that Railroad track flips around on Monday or Tuesday to retake the highs - I'm gunna laugh so hard you won't even see my face


maybe some knucklehead at the gold cartel input the wrong number for the trade :lol:


talk about not even real


Ah yes, end of July brings back fond memories for gold and what happened afterward


oh, its 41 years later


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Charmin don't you think you have enough gold .... I mean just look at you. :grin:


I think the pullback was healthy .... we'll just have to keep taking the pulse to figure which way its going ... but I'm not a daytrader like you ... so see things a little differently.

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I'm trading the swings - and I do hold for longer periods so I don't consider myself a day trader.


I think coming this week is good for long term investing - we'll see


I would have expected the lows to come in by Oct 24 but this shoots holes in that one - they did a fast one on us

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7, here's a writeup by Rodin on Silver. Maybe he can help you get a handle on Silver chart...... hehehe :wink2:



He's using the same cycle for gold as I do - he's surely a genius :lol:


Great find!

My inferiority errrr .... superiority complex.... is not as good as yours.


Nah - just plain old complex :rolleyes:


The two bottom charts on his page aren't looking so good (if you bring them up to date). Bottom one's dropped out of it's channel completely. His triangles chart (second down) is, to me, the most likely if we continue without a serious CIT.


I think most of us are suffering from shortsitedness (can't see the gump for the trees) and should be paying more heed to longer term cycles (like the gold 8 year). Not saying we're doomed in this sector at all - just saying it'd be wise to zoom out a little, ignore the fundamentals noise, and get some technical perspective.



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Wow Tonto, what a story. My mother drives me round the bend day in and day out with her stuff and it was comforting to just hear that someone else has to deal with parent strangeness.


I don't have the knowledge you do but have managed to get my mother's finances on a decent track and fortunately she can't work the computer and I've warned her to never call our local scottrade and mess with anything.


I'm opening an account for her mutual funds so I can move funds easier if necessary and am going to find out if we can trade in and out (to take profits and buy back lower) on a longer term of course (probably 3 months or so). We have done pretty well with Tocqueville Gold and I don't want to watch the profits disappear totally.


I've been trying to compose this and am finding it impossible. She has done lots of stuff to rival your father--just know that you are not alone. Keep the chin up.

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Crouching Tiger,

Thank you for the links!

I like your target area but I believe 360-365 will hold and $4.80 on silver. Who knows?


I traded 50 oz. of gold that I had profits in, for 35 more 100 oz. silver bars.

The moves in silver and gold were quite shocking to me, not so much that they moved down, but within 1 hour.


As for the gold stocks, we may bounce Monday or continue to decline for a few more days, but I would think that the HUI, is at least going to test its' 50 DMA.


Still own some canadian miners, but mostly cash, although I did start a 1/3 position in Rydex short funds as I believe we are witnessing a triple top in the broads, short term. If we have new closing highs in the next few days I will close out my position, if we don't, I'll go 100% short.


I would sort of like to see Fred Murphy's and AB's scenario play out so I could pick up some PM's cheaper in the coming weeks. But hey, I'm selfish.


Good luck to all!!!! This is the best thread in Stoolville. :D

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Tonto said:


"Due to the upcoming election etc. at the absolute must hold up mentality in the markets seem to tell me that gold/silver miners will be better off investing in towards next summer or spring.....to much at stake and with the vix etc. so low it seems a must to get fear out of the markets....I got a good lesson friday oin how manipulated gold can be."



Any true believer in the existence of the "matrix" would be strongly inclined to respect your prediction, but what if ?it is known by spring of 04 that revenues continue to decline to the point where there will be a 1 trillion $ or greater deficit... that could rain on the Bush parade.

Logic tells me you may be right, but I can offer no guarantees that the holy dollar won't go down another 20-30% before the election.. thus shooting gold upward.


I am thinking out loud here.. any comments from our fellow gold followers?

no clue...all I know is that was absolutely pathetic friday and at age 30....my 401k is screwed for the long haul most likely and when the markets turn around and goes down many might be better off changing jobs for the simple reason of rolling their 401 to an IRA and going short in Rydex inverse funds.even after company match ......most of my friends are high fiving saying naz to the moon stuff....the turnaround is here etc.....Im thinking oh my gosh this is horrifying and Im so ashamed that 99% of the public here will probably blame other countries for our problems a year from now and of course hold everything in there port till it goes to 0.......ex. my dad held all Janus mutual funds etc. which were part of his 401k plan at Conoco for over 60-70% losses......he of course says he wont let it happen again....Im sure he thinks he will sell and buy back at better times....he hacked two of my miners gains on fri by reentering them wednesday after I told him to stay out after selling week before at a bad time and gave reasons with hui etc....he sold friday morning for bad losses...lost 4 months of gains on BGO and WHT which we bought right near 1 on both....he went with a much larger position.....reentry was because, "it looked like things were going up"..here that way to much now......he couldnt go even a week without being in the market.I have gotten a job and wont have time to do it for him for awhile.....He knows nothing on stocks but figured he had turned to a master or something and could match my results with 5 minutes of work after I spent 10 hours a day pretty much every day on them. At this point I dont feel comfortable not being able to look at the screen all day at this point...I in turn am now freaked out completely of what he will do next when Im not around....only started doing it recently after I took him to 50% cash etc. and sold miners...wasnt interested in to much tech garbage..he said fine he would just buy mutual funds...bought small cap high risk stuff that had 5 star ratings...I said that probably means they will have a 1 star after next year...high risk......stupid Crapvision people... he said he was watching them and they said things looked good... ;) ...I said well why doesnt everyone just load in the market and nobody will ever lose......he replies, its all about time....I said, just make sure that time is the right one....what if you needed the money for an emergency last year?......youd be ruined......any ideas of how to keep such things from happening?......I compare to a 90 year old thinking he can run a 100 mile marathon because he saw someone else do it..


I of course would never have done as well without all the knowledge I have learned here....


thor, please delete if off topic, sorry! I made great gains for my dad this year and wanted him to just stay out of the market.....2 weeks later he had lost 40,000 and didnt even tell me...made it 5 days on the side.I was laid off and traded for him for cash since June.Now Im working again so cant do it......found out about miners earlier.. :( I have worked so hard....I feel I cant even leave him alone for a minute....he watches that Crapvision all the time and I stop him from doing stuff all the time...he is clueless on the internals of the economy and I have no clue of how to even really start...hes really slow....an engineer retired......he writes stuff down, rewrites it, prints and frames it, makes graphs etc... but never thinks about actually trying to research anything... :cry:

I have managed his portfollio all year and worked hard on it...he lost 10% of it in one week without me around and even bought some penny stock garbage he heard on Crapvision that day...lost 3k in one day on it....it was up 300% in a month when he bought it.... :cry:


I think the majority of the public thinks like him...hes seems to think hes in the top 5% all of a sudden as do most who dont realize the odds..they are different....thats the ones who actually survive trading etc....which is what he ends up doing since he just retired in January and has so much time on his hands....any help or ideas from anyone would be a lifesaver...........I can see the miners retrace on lighter volume next week and he does it again....even though I warned him already... :cry:



There is also the chance of the its going right back but I think odds are alot lower this round than last time when it quickly recovered. Just since it seems obvious that could be in play and correct me if Im wrong but doesnt gold over 400 be danger simpleton style for the economy and manys indicator......

Almost a year ago I remember this exact same post ( spirit of it at least).... and since then I have had time to reflect and think upon it. I have also my own experiences to draw upon without getting into the nitty gritty......




try and stand back from the monitor and focus on your words.....


I said this..... and he said this.... then I said this.... his reply was that....


as someone who has no clue who you or your parent is... I draw on my own experience. My failures are always because I did not communicate effectively my point of view. I have often been guitly of not communicating from a spirit of Love, often I ram my opinion down someones throat because I am very confident that I am correct.... but what good is that?


Indian proverb.... why cut off someones nose and then offer them a rose to smell?


In the field of Financial Planning the most important skill a CFP must learn to cultivate is the abilty to LISTEN. This goes back to your words ..... there was lots of he said I said ... but did either side really hear what the other side was actually saying?


If you want to get your dad working with you and not against you communicate this to him... but don't be direct about it ... don't say OK dad lets do it this way 'cause here is the HUI charts and they say we correct for the next couple of months....


BE SUBTLE or rather gentle in your approach.....


DAD what are your expectations? do you think we can make the portfolio grow by 10 % a month? Dad how much of your total capital do feel comfortable having invested at any one time? 100% 50%? How much time and effort do you think should go into market analysis


Prepare a series of questions and then get him to answer let the power of your listening to his responses guide you with how to accomplish an effective investing strategy.


Is this easy ..... NO WAY! Will it bear fruit? In time YES!


A suggestion for a starting point might lie in a financial planning book.... it will have some financial questionnaires that might make a good starting ground.


All the best with you Dad and yourself but really view it as a challenge to yourself to be an efffective communicator..... the victory will be sweet wine for the both of you.



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here is a post from traders talk.....http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=585


When your around this type of stuff for a while - you learn that instinct is everything.


But in actuality, we had these items to consider - and why I thought it was prudent to close my long positions earlier this week:


1) The Central Fund of Canada was not moving well in relation to the metals - and you had the all time asset highs in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund (divergence).


2) There was too much media hype with the false breakout in recovery highs seen in September.


3) The key performance stocks in this area sold off sharply the same day of the new recovery high - with expanding volume.


4) The yellow metal didn't do what it was "supposed to" in August - and everyone seemed to be looking at the same thing cycle wise.


5) While the dollar was declining recently - gold was not rising in lock step to the dollars decline.


6) No thrust follow through from the symmetrical triangle on the daily charts as mentioned by Index Trader almost a month ago.


There are more reasons (warnings) why something like today was going to happen to the metals - but overall - this is a necessary phenomenon to keep the majority from getting overly bullish too soon - and I still expect a good buying opportunity to come as early as late October - when the majority are looking the other way while being disappointed once again.


I will post some longer term charts later on for a better perspective of what may be going on.





notice he never mentions MATRIX, forensic whatever, ramp jobs, criminals, MM's, etc......


he sticks with a reasoned and emotionally detached approach to analysis......


next time you are looking to blame an external force for a trade gone awry look in the mirror and start the examination there

Just because you and assumedly the author of the article you quoted do not believe in something does not mean that said something does not exist. I don't think it is wise to claim that established evidence of the existence of forces railed against gold is merely an excuse for bad trades. Indeed, knowing of the existence of such forces and how they operate can help you to be on the right side of trades in the PMS. People have accused me of being a night nurse, however, I do not believe my purpose in life is to help people to trade better. No, I just call him as I see 'em and let the bugs decide for themselves.

I believe there was a concerted effort to drive down the price of gold. The key word in that sentence is concerted. Concerted implies collaberation. Which I believe is illegal. Had this been a sudden move to the upside without any news I think there might have been an investigation. I do not intend here to write a piece defending the concept of the cabal, cartel or matrix or whatever the hell you want to call it but I've weighed the evidence and I believe it exists. Nevertheless I continue to play in the rigged casino and continue to fancy my chances of walking out a winner.

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