PMS Weak End Upchuck for Oct 4,5

[anjing bau]

VANCOUVER -- When Robert Friedland said last month that his Mongolian copper-gold discovery is "not Voisey's Bay all over again," some interpreted his declaration as just another tactic in a master's playbook.

 

After all, the skeptics said, Mr. Friedland arranged the sale of the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit to Inco Ltd. for $4.3-billion (U.S.) after initially saying his company would develop the project.

 

This time, the renowned promoter says, things are different.

 

"The situation that we have in Mongolia is far superior to the situation that we had in Voisey's Bay," he said recently, speaking from Hong Kong, en route to Mongolia.

 

Mr. Friedland -- founder, president and chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., the Vancouver-based company that owns the Turquoise Hill deposit in Mongolia -- said those who assume he'll repeat history are ignoring key differences between Voisey's Bay and Turquoise Hill, known as Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.

 

Developing Voisey's Bay would have meant building a smelter, a condition Newfoundland demanded and that would have made the undertaking far more expensive than building a mine on its own. As well, he said, the Voisey's Bay nickel deposit was a "one-off," a single mineral deposit. By contrast, he said, Ivanhoe geologists believe they have uncovered a mineral "province," a group of deposits that contain as yet unknown stores of copper and gold.

 

Then there's the China factor.

 

China's copper consumption climbed by 21.6 per cent in the second quarter, and that was with the SARS outbreak at its peak. Automobile production is expected to increase by 25 per cent this year, and manufacturing of consumer goods such as televisions, radios and refrigerators, all containing copper, are expected to grow by a similar amount. Oyu Tolgoi is a copper deposit, 80 kilometres from the Chinese border and next to the biggest metals consumer in the world. Oh, and don't forget that the Mongolians have revamped their mining legislation and are keen on building their economy.

 

"What we have, in short, is not for sale because it is just too damn good," Mr. Friedland said.

 

With one of his projects back in the spotlight, one might think Mr. Friedland is enjoying a comeback. But anal cysts, fund managers and fellow mining executives say he never really went away -- the broader investing public just stopped paying attention. Between scandals such as the Bre-X Minerals Ltd. hoax of 1997, the Asian Flu currency devaluation the same year and a dot-com boom of the late 1990s that sucked up investment capital, resource exploration plays lost their allure. Now, however, commodities and resource ventures are back in favour, a sea change anal cysts chalk up to factors that include a faltering U.S. greenback, Chinese industrial growth, geopolitical anxieties and low interest rates. The improved outlook for metals sent money streaming into mining ventures last year. In the first half of 2003, the value of equity financings for mining companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSX Venture Exchange climbed to $2.3-billion (Canadian), up 44 per cent from the $1.6-billion raised during the first half of last year.

 

The shift, and its timing, has been good for Mr. Friedland. Ivanhoe Mines acquired its Mongolia leases from BHP Billiton in 2000 and announced its first significant discovery in July, 2001. The project is still at an early stage, with none of its drilling results yet translated into proven or probable reserves. But early results point to a big deposit, with most recent results indicating potentially richer grades that would put it on par with some of the world's top producing copper mines. The speculation has helped propel Ivanhoe Mine shares up 137 per cent this year. The stock closed yesterday on the TSX at $8.10.

 

Renewed interest in commodities has also been good for another company in the Friedland stable, Ivanhoe Energy Inc. Mr. Friedland is deputy chairman of the Vancouver-based company, which recently announced that a subsidiary was preparing to drill the first of more than 100 oil wells planned in China. Ivanhoe Energy's stock has risen by 406 per cent this year. The stock closed yesterday on the TSX at $3.81. Mr. Friedland owns 40.5 per cent of Ivanhoe Mines and just under 30 per cent of Ivanhoe Energy, making his combined stake in the two companies worth, on paper, about $979-million.

 

Mr. Friedland said he continues to explore, raise money and do deals around the globe because he enjoys it. Similarly, he said he and long-time associates, such as Ivanhoe Mines deputy chairman and director Edward Flood, are looking forward to becoming operators at Oyu Tolgoi because they have decided they are in the right place at the right time in the mining cycle.

 

"As we have gotten older we have sort of decided we would like to hang out in countries that we enjoy and work with people that we enjoy working with," he said. "In fact that is almost the only definition of success that I can think of, is that you get to choose who you hang around with. So we have a very, very great deal of affinity for the Mongolian people, we really love being here."

 

Fans of Mr. Friedland refer often to his passion and commitment, as well as his ability to make millions for investors. Detractors focus on his unsuccessful promotions, such as a Venezuelan gold play in the 1990s, and the controversial saga of Galactic Resources Corp.

 

Galactic, Mr. Friedland's first publicly listed Canadian company, developed the Summitville gold mine in Colorado which operated between 1986 and 1992. Technical failures at the mine and drainage from previous mine workings resulted in toxic contaminants being discharged into nearby watersheds. Those problems triggered a flurry of lawsuits and countersuits between Galactic and Colorado and U.S. agencies. Mr. Friedland had resigned all of his executive positions by 1990, and owned less than 5 per cent of the company when it went bankrupt in 1993. After years of legal wrangling, Mr. Friedland in December, 2000, reached a voluntary settlement with the United States and Colorado. As part of the settlement Mr. Friedland paid $20-million (U.S.) toward restoration of the Alamosa River watershed. The United States and Colorado acknowledged "no one person or entity" was solely responsible for environmental problems at Summitville. Ivanhoe Mines has also been criticized over its stake in Monywa, a copper mine it operates through a joint venture with a government-owned firm in Myanmar, formerly Burma. Critics have called on Ivanhoe Mines to stop operating in the country, where Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and pro-democracy leader, has been detained since May 30.

 

Mr. Friedland repeated what has been the company's consistent position: That it supports democratic reforms in Myanmar and that its operations provide important economic and social benefits.

 

"We have built schools and hospitals and support two major regional hospitals that serve a population of about four million people. We have engaged in an anti-Dengue fever campaign, we have an ISO 14001 environmental certification and our mine there is one of the lowest cost and most efficient copper producers in the world," he said. "Our wishes for Burma to make progress are very sincere," he added. "And we think we probably do a hell of a lot more good by staying there than by leaving."

 

There have been reports that Ivanhoe could sell some of its assets as its Mongolia venture begins to play a bigger role in the company. Mr. Friedland said Ivanhoe Mines is constantly reviewing its assets, and that sales or spin offs may occur.

 

The company yesterday declined to comment on reports that Monywa could be sold to Chinese interests. From the perspective of many of today's investors, Galactic and Monywa are irrelevant compared with Ivanhoe's prospects in Mongolia. Some observers point to the preliminary nature of exploration results and the challenges of building a mine in the remote location.

 

"From a financial standpoint, the depth and grade is going to make the costs quite large," said John Ing, a gold anal cyst and president of Maison Placements Canada Inc. "And the isolation means the infrastructure is also all-important."

 

Those who believe in Mr. Friedland's vision say China is so eager for copper feedstock for its smelters that it will do everything it can to help bring a mine into production.

 

Rohit Sehgal, a fund manager and investment strategist with Toronto-based Dynamic Mutual Funds Ltd., travelled this year to Mongolia and China with Mr. Friedland. Mr. Sehgal runs the Dynamic Power Canadian Growth Fund, which owns shares in Ivanhoe Energy and Ivanhoe Mines. Mr. Sehgal said his group stopped at one point in Baotou, a city of nearly two million people in northern China. He left with two overriding impressions: the incredible amount of industrial activity going on in a city that he'd never heard of and the welcome accorded to Mr. Friedland and his team by Chinese officials.

 

"They gave him a reception that only heads of state get," Mr. Sehgal said. "The Chinese are dying for copper feed. They will build roads for him, they will give him power -- they are all over him, it's 'give us a list and we will get it done for you.' "

 

Regardless of the eventual size of the Turquoise Hill deposit -- or who winds up bringing it into production -- Mr. Friedland has put Mongolia on the map of mining hot spots in a way it hadn't been before.

 

Gold rush

 

Financing activity in the mining sector has surged this year.

 

Amounts raised on TSX and TSX Venture for mining, in $billion, and the number of deals in each case.

 

1999: $1.9-billion, 988 deals

 

2000: $1.4-billion, 1,175 deals

 

2001: $1.2-billion, 932 deals

 

2002: $3.2-billion, 1,515 deals

 

SOURCE: TSX

 

 

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art.../?query=ivanhoe

[Guest]

Sheeples... That kind of story will kill his reputation. I live in NB and have tried to see him and buy directly; but he refuses; and so I do too.... His prices are great, on both ends, but I have HEARD that one should not be surprised by shinanigans from time to time. California Numismatics has a policy of matching anyones prices in the country; but they won't match Tulvings.

 

I say you write a letter indicating when the oral contract was entered into on price (if he brings up the Statute of Frauds, you bring up Mail Fraud and Interstate Commerce) , make a statement as to the coins' condition upon receipt from him originally, and how those coins were used and stored while in your time of possession. I'd then warn him that should he not honor your agreement, you would spread word of this experience wide and far throughout the internet on every Gold Message Board, among your Gold investing friends and in any and all Gold related discussions. He lives off mailorder, and without the trust factor his business will dry up like a prune.

 

You have the copy of your purchase invoice and his latest note to you ... seems to me he might reconsider.

 

Those are my thoughts.... Good luck

[anjing bau]

watch how it behaves on the desent to give an idea how deep it goes.....

[anjing bau]

1.93 makes sense to me....

[anjing bau]

this it Charm .... my last loving look .....

[anjing bau]

Gold futures plunged yesterday, recording their biggest one-day drop in six years, as U.S. stocks and the dollar rallied on a government jobs report, dimming the metal's appeal for investors.

 

Gold has fallen 6.3 per cent from a seven-year high last week as stocks rallied on improved prospects for the U.S. economy.

 

Stocks rose for a third day and the dollar rebounded against the euro after the report showed the first increase in U.S. payrolls in eight months.

 

Gains for the U.S. dollar hurt gold by making the dollar-priced metal more costly for overseas buyers.

 

"This is a real nice day for people who are looking for an economic recovery in the U.S.: lower unemployment, strong stocks and a firmer dollar," said Tom Boustead, an anal cyst at Refco LLC in New York. "This is not a gold story."

 

Gold for December delivery fell $13.70 (U.S.) to $370 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile, the lowest closing price since Aug. 26 and biggest one-day decline for a most-active contract since Oct. 24, 1997.

 

The decline accelerated after prices fell below $380 an ounce, triggering prearranged sell orders from hedge funds, Mr. Boustead said.

 

Buying by hedge funds and other large speculators had contributed to the rally in gold, as they amassed their largest holdings in the metal in at least two decades.

 

In other markets, copper futures rose to a 31-month high after the government report showed an unexpected increase in U.S. jobs, signalling an acceleration of economic growth that would spur demand for metal pipes and wire, and natural gas futures gained.

 

Copper prices have jumped 19 per cent this year, partly on expectations that growth in the world's largest economy will pick up. Shares of Phelps Dodge Corp., the biggest U.S. copper producer, rose to a 33-month high.

 

In New York, natural gas rose to the biggest weekly gain in seven months on speculation that colder-than-normal weather in the central United States next week will boost demand, reducing the amount of the fuel utilities will store for winter use.

[jr12]

Unless my data is incorrect, or I have made a mistake (both very possible), the peak in gold on 9/25/03 was exactly 1000 trading days from 9/21/99, the day it started skyrocketing upwards. Also, 500 and 750 trading days marked a peak, nothing much happened at 250 days.

[anjing bau]

Tonto..... where is the Lone ranger? did you kill him off?

 

RGLD... is a momentum stock that makes an excellent trading vehicle from both sides of the plate.... let it bounce before you go short though IMO....

[jr12]

Similiar thing with the Dow, but with calendar days instead of trading days.

[anjing bau]

here is a post from traders talk.....http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=585

 

When your around this type of stuff for a while - you learn that instinct is everything.

 

But in actuality, we had these items to consider - and why I thought it was prudent to close my long positions earlier this week:

 

1) The Central Fund of Canada was not moving well in relation to the metals - and you had the all time asset highs in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund (divergence).

 

2) There was too much media hype with the false breakout in recovery highs seen in September.

 

3) The key performance stocks in this area sold off sharply the same day of the new recovery high - with expanding volume.

 

4) The yellow metal didn't do what it was "supposed to" in August - and everyone seemed to be looking at the same thing cycle wise.

 

5) While the dollar was declining recently - gold was not rising in lock step to the dollars decline.

 

6) No thrust follow through from the symmetrical triangle on the daily charts as mentioned by Index Trader almost a month ago.

 

There are more reasons (warnings) why something like today was going to happen to the metals - but overall - this is a necessary phenomenon to keep the majority from getting overly bullish too soon - and I still expect a good buying opportunity to come as early as late October - when the majority are looking the other way while being disappointed once again.

 

I will post some longer term charts later on for a better perspective of what may be going on.

 

Fib

 

 

notice he never mentions MATRIX, forensic whatever, ramp jobs, criminals, MM's, etc......

 

he sticks with a reasoned and emotionally detached approach to analysis......

 

next time you are looking to blame an external force for a trade gone awry look in the mirror and start the examination there

[speculator]

Is it just me or do many gold charts (see NEM daily) seem to be forming that 3 humps thingamajig FeedFool has be talking about wrt the broads?

[Crouching Tiger]

ab, re Afkan AFK.V, I believe that hugh volume spike was a private placement.

 

the impression you left me with is, treat these as aberrations on a chart ........ n'est paw?

[Charmin]

Dinapoli Railroad track on the gold contract down to breakout high of Aug 26 at 367.10 and they took it -

 

AB - BGO nope, I'm buying now

 

its over already

[anjing bau]

Dinapoli Railroad track on the gold contract down to breakout high of Aug 26 at 367.10 and they took it -

 

AB - BGO nope, I'm buying now

 

its over already

my tgt versus where it closed is only 20% lower...

[anjing bau]

The price of gold nose-dived yesterday in response to a rebound in the fortunes of the U.S. dollar.

 

Gold for December delivery fell US$13.70 -- its biggest one-day drop in six years -- in Comex trading in New York, closing at US$369.40.

 

An optimistic employment report from the U.S. government has raised hopes of a turnaround in the U.S. economy. That triggered a rally in the U.S. dollar, which before yesterday's news had fallen about 9% since Sept. 1.

 

Before yesterday, bullion had been one of the key beneficiaries of the greenback's troubles. Gold is bought and sold in U.S. dollars, so weakness in the currency encourages investors overseas to buy gold.

 

Gold peaked on Sept. 24 at US$387.50 an ounce, the highest price in seven years.

 

Yet just as a weak U.S. dollar encourages gold, a stronger currency drives away investors. That is what happened yesterday, when speculators dumped gold to capitalize on a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

 

Gold was due for a correction, London-based consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services predicted last month.

 

GFMS noted that several hedge funds had jumped into the gold market, speculating that weak macroeconomic news in the United States would drive down the U.S. dollar and drive up the gold price.

 

Indeed, buying by hedge funds and other large speculators helped fuel the gold market as bullion investors lapped up the largest gold holdings in at least two decades.

 

The quick drop in the gold price sent big investors running for the exits.

 

Tom Boustead, an anal cyst at Refco LLC in New York, said yesterday when gold dropped below US$380 an ounce, it triggered pre-arranged sell orders from hedge funds.

 

Despite yesterday's decline -- one of the largest single-day falls in six years -- gold has generally been on the rise since April, 2001, when it sold for less than US$260 an ounce.

 

Gold is considered a safe haven in times of political instability. It therefore took a big run-up earlier this year as the United States readied for war in Iraq. The metal tumbled after the war reached a quick conclusion.

 

Concerns over the mounting U.S. budget deficit weakened the U.S. dollar in April and May, and this sparked another gold price increase that led to the peak in September.

 

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