Mark To MArket Weak End Part Two

[mjkst27]

got this bad feeling it's gonna be bear flambe on Tuesday

[Pere Ubu]

Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, Inc. more convinced of collapse than ever,  says go to 1/3 gold   ....names names:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/r...sell090103.html

 

Pere Ubu likes what Richard Russell writes.

 

But that is because Pere Ubu committed the sin of gluttony.

He gorged on NEM stock back when NEM was a featured item at the discount "All you can Eat" buffet.

 

But Pere Ubu can't help but wonder if the US deficit can increase an order of magnitude before R. Russell's predictions come to pass. And that may take time.

[Pee Brain]

watched "Rollover" with the kids - that flick was a few decades early

 

there are some really classic lines in there-

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

I thought AMD buying a few companies lately was a bit out of the ordinary, browsing the web I may have found out why.

 

From Yahoo Finance pages:

 

AMD purchased Coatue without filing a material event with SEC. Only

extraordinary Circumstances permit or require secrecy. The matter speaks

for itself.

 

 

LOS ANGELES, California --

Coatue Corp., a start-up

company that had

successfully built arrays of

non-volatile memory cells in

polymer technology, was

sold to backer Advanced

Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) for

an undisclosed amount

earlier this year and then

folded into FASL LLC, a joint

venture between AMD and

Fujitsu Ltd. (see July 14

story).

Link

[BarBu]

Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, Inc. more convinced of collapse than ever, ?says go to 1/3 gold ? ....names names:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/r...sell090103.html

 

Pere Ubu likes what Richard Russell writes.

 

But that is because Pere Ubu committed the sin of gluttony.

He gorged on NEM stock back when NEM was a featured item at the discount "All you can Eat" buffet.

 

But Pere Ubu can't help but wonder if the US deficit can increase an order of magnitude before R. Russell's predictions come to pass. And that may take time.

 

Pere Ubu

 

your assessment is not new, give your time frame would be better.

[BarBu]

All of us here, for the most part, are speculators in the market. So would someone please start making some thoughtful speculations about the tradable markets and dispense with the vague conspiratory, political ramblings?

This long weekend should give us ample time to evaluate and adjust our losing trains of thought, or perhaps sharpen our winning methods, and share them with the group. How about it?

 

On the daily cycles I see the SnPee topping out this week around 1020 and the XAU topping around 95. Then we get SWDP for both indexes through September.

 

Very good suggestion

[BarBu]

chart courtesy

 

similiar work did by UCLA's sornette, predicts a S&P plunge is near

 

charts

[maximummark]

Re: BudFox...Small/micro caps should benefit from this ongoing turmoil, likely more than large growth stocks that do not pay a substantial dividend...SSMVX has been a steady performer for me among funds, and companies like FONR, AERTA and EAR seem likely to outperform along with many others. This is a great market for stock picking on the long side, even without the manias in biotech, semis and natural resources...demographic pressures will continue to benefit the obvious suspects like medical supplies and equipment for years to come, see MMSI, which is wonderfully tradeable around another upcoming split, as in the past...

[Guest]

Gold up 1.20 and silver up 5 cents this morning. Looking good so far.

[Old Habits]

It just seems to me that any political discussion usually degenerates into name calling and mud slinging.

 

My personal view is that political discussions, while interesting, and worthwhile, are irrelevant to the performance of the market. There is no causality. No connection whatsoever. So I prefer to keep discussions of politics separate. The market has three drivers. First and foremost is, um..., for want of a better word... the market. Second is liquidity, and third is cycles. It's a closed system with one feeding and interacting with each of the other two to varying degress at different times. Politics is just noise.

 

In fact, except for the market itself, it's all noise. The tape is all there is. I contend that those with the talent and the discipline can be successful traders without ever opening a newspaper, turning on the TV, or picking up the latest rumors and spin on the internet.

 

Including this site. :wink2:

 

So lets keep the politics on Political Stool. Feel free to place a link here to any topic anywhere else on the site. It's no different from all the links we give to other websites. That way you can make your point, start a discussion and invite others to join in, without needlessly inflaming passions on this thread.

 

Thanks for that Doc. You are right on again.

[Old Habits]

Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, Inc. more convinced of collapse than ever, says go to 1/3 gold ....names names:

 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/r...sell090103.html

 

Thanks for the link MaxM. Great reading! I'm with him.

 

It seems to me that the only thing holding this market up especially the Naz, is continual short covering.

[DrStool]

I like the Sornette model. Looks a lot like the long term cycle projection posted in the Anals. I'll be updating it later today.

[machinehead]

Great Richard Russell link, MaxM. This is the insight of the decade:

 

"Because of the drastic, almost insane measures taken by the Greenspan Fed to battle the bear, this bear market will end with the death of the dollar as a reserve currency and most likely with the end to the US as the world's sole superpower."

 

Richard Russell now refers to the "double bubble," echoing Noland's "post-boom boom" and our own "Bubble II" terminology.

 

He is right that gold will be one of the few places to hide. I'm inclined to take a more diversified approach. Gold and oil are the two essentials. The third segment is "other real assets": land, timber, food, metals.

 

Just as all of the world's stock markets trade together, it's likely that all of the currencies eventually will trade together, too. If the paper dollar becomes worthless, why would anyone trust euros and yen? Demographically, their welfare states are in worse trouble than America's.

 

In John Law's time, it took only a few years for the illiterate French peasantry to figure out his scam. In our "highly-educated" era, it's taken more like a hundred years. But all scams eventually blow up. The Federal Reserve is one of them. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[Captain's Log]

Nikkei 225 ^N225 10:00pm 10,532.96 +189.41 :shocked

 

whooooo doggies considering was once @ 40K

 

problem with liquidity is it can come from a printing press

 

then at a moment in time what was bought with the

fiat returns to the price two people agree on

Nikkei ended up > 3% today. That is one big move for such a laggard.

 

I'd swung 40% of my funds to EWJ @ 8.20 on hunch that it was completing a 2 within a bigger wave 3 up. (Previously swung out at 8.30.)

 

I believe Japan is in a bull market and easier to trade than US indices at the moment. Notice that Nikkei did not participate in US / European rallies starting Oct02 so is out of phase with these. It went down until late April 03 and seems to have turned around a 13 year decline which was on 'ell of an ABC correction. Since then, trend is up.

 

On fundamentals, seems like Japanese Gubbermint are allowing the Yen to float higher. If US 1990's are anything to go by, a strong currency = higher stock prices in local market as international money moves into the market. In this case, the stronger yen will have similar effect. If Yen goes up, then appreciation of Japanese assets in $ terms will be great.

 

Don't know if this event will corrspond to Asian money leaving other markets but I wouldn't be surprised by it.

 

(I'm turning Japanese I really thing so). :grin:

[Guest]

It just seems to me that any political discussion usually degenerates into name calling and mud slinging.

 

Politics is just noise.

I totally agree with that Doc...but there is a vast expanse of territory to cover between politics at one end of the spectrum and TA at the other...and it's called the real world...real events, and life. What happens in the lives of businesses, nations and people matter to me. I'm essentially a student of human nature, and a marketing strategist by trade. Many of the books you sell in your book store speak to the non-technical elements that lead to major market shifts through group-think, herding, etc.

 

What happens in the world outside of the charts matters to me, and is subsequently reported as news. A forum such as this helps each of us to sort out the true news from the spin. News is an accurate accounting of real world events - potentially affecting each of us in some way - including our particular stock holdings. Noise is spin.

 

Take the issue of unemployment for example. More American's lose jobs every day, but you wouldn't know it by the government's numbers. Here we have daily reminders in the form of layoff stories and links to websites which show the true nature of unemployment in America, keeping us all from becoming bullish. Is that all just noise? Doesn't this serve your cause?

 

I despise politics and have virtually no desire to carry on a conversation anywhere other than Mark To Market. We have witnessed an unprecedented use of the criminally-timed press release to stick save stocks causing massive short squeezes - all of which has prolonged the inevitable collapse of the market that we've ALL been anticipating for months. In that time, many of your customers have gone broke.

 

I have found it exceptionally helpful to have a forum such as this - to come to a very clear understanding of how this game is being played. It is positively criminal, but learning how to protect yourself from them is part of what Mark To Market provides. I came to Mark To Market for the T&A, the humor, the commeradery, the shared opinion, the wisdom, the community, and lastly - the TA.

 

Nothing in the chart of FLML a week ago told me it was anything other than a perfect set up for a short bet. Two days later, I had lost close to $10,000 when the "NEWS" of a licensing agreement payment hit. Was that noise? The timing of that release was criminal - as it coincided with maximum short interest in the stock. Did they hold that announcement back for a day, a week or a month to gain maximum results in the share price? If so, it's criminal. If it's happening time after time (and it is), it's a trend. If it helps to explain how the market has been propped up longer than you've been predicting, it's relevant. If it's killing all of your customers, where should we discuss that if not here? It's not political - it's real. Forensics matter too.

 

Some here have made real world connections to one another. If Pee Brain wants to mention a movie he saw with his children last night and Bris Bare wants to tell me about life down under, that's great. I'm a sponge, and I'm here to learn - and to share when the motivation strikes.

 

A TA-only forum leaves no room for opinion and interpretation - some of which is logically based on broader perspectives than charting can account for. I dare say that without the expression of opinion, this will be a very quiet neighborhood.

 

Thank you for allowing me a place to express my opinions...which I pay for - despite the fact that it is available to me for free.

 

Plunger