DrStool Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 OK, let's stick to the guidelines here. If it's not directly related to the market or the economy, don't post it here. You have LOB and Political Stool etc., for those. And no food fights, please. Many tanks!
maximummark Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 GATA on the explosion of long open interest and the POG/Treasury divergence: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCa.../1062168659.php
summoner Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 Gold opens up 5 bills, the pressure is building, spent alot of time with friends and family this weekend....nobody gets it... some of my buddies are driving cars worth more than they make a year.....its business as usual unless you are the one without a job....next 4 months going to be a doozy...all I know is my stack is getting bigger and more brilliant every week, buying in bulk everytime we hit the 200 say MA...trade safe!
HiHat Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 I am short Big SP contract @ 997.20. Still maintain that Fri. Aug. 22 reversal candle will contain rally and that SP will retest 965 before any attempt to break out of trading range. I may short 10 E-MINIS @ 1014 area
wndysrf Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 There is a huge battle going on in gold. The spec longs, who have been constantly "testing" the validity of the huge gold short positions by driving the the gold price have been repelled. Repelled after the Iraq War runup to $380. Repelled after the post-war rally up to $370. Twice the spec longs have tried to initiate a short squeeze. Twice, they lost. Now we are testing the third time. The spec longs believe they have the advantage this time, since physical demand is now starting to overwhelm the paper shorts. Many times the last two weeks, the gold shorts tried to hit the stops and force the spec longs to liquidate. This time, the spec longs have held in there. Moreover, the spec longs have been emboldened by this strength and have added more longs. The shorts, deperate to flush out the longs, have added more shorts. Now, we have the largest open interest outstanding. If the longs are successful, and the shorts are forced to cover, the record high open interest is bound to create a huge, high volume candle on the gold contract. Record volume candle pushing past $380 will be the ultimate bullish technical indicator for gold. Since the XAU has failed to gather high enough monthly volume to surpass the prior highs, I think there is going to be one more flushout of longs on gold and the XAU. The selloff will be short and brief, and it will cause the gold shorts to exhaust their last reserves in an attempt to slam the spec longs for good. Some of the weak spec longs will panic out, but stronger spec longs who missed the last lows in gold will pile in. That is when I expect the "Commercial Signal Failure", and that is when we will get the massive explosion in gold and gold shares.
Brisbane Bear Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 Hey Doc, Why dont you conduct a quick survey regarding political content on this forum? Keep the same simple rules...no personal attacks,everyone is entitled to their opinion,make your points and back them up with facts,evidence and so forth...it makes for great weekend reading in particular. I for one also believe that it is very hard to separate politics from economics and the markets,i find it very interesting to hear various peoples opinions(crazy as some sound) i cant be bothered forum jumping...all the interesting stuff ..for better or worse is on this thread...we are all adults here to think moderators should even have to waste time deleting posts is crazy...on a web site...posters either have credibility or they dont...you very quickly realise that and only read what want......i know i would rather discuss all aspects of life as it pertains to our bearish viewpoint than music,jokes or recipes...that stuff should be on another forum imho....
Brisbane Bear Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 after reading John Maudlins email this week you can only conclude that Greenspew is a closet stoolie...he has just admitted that "We dont know either"
brian4 Posted August 31, 2003 Report Posted August 31, 2003 Now Brisbane I agree with you on that and we are not alone. Something stoolies may not have noticed. - The futures closed on Friday at a LARGE discount to cash. Usually if anything is usual anymore-that is a portent of doom for the bullz as the resolve is Da BOYZ buy futures and SELL the cash. Trade Safe!
Brisbane Bear Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 It is getting closer...front page story in our biggest Sunday newspaper screams "Real estate boom sweeps state" all sorts of stories from average couples making $1000 per week in capital gains..prices up 70% in some suburbs...big 2 page spread outlining every suburb and how much the median house price has risen...it is a mania that is certain....the wealth effect could be very powerful....this is like a lotto win for a lot of ordinary people...and you know what people do when they win the lottery...they go on spending sprees...
summoner Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 Just tell everyone you know to buy an ounce of gold....once they get started they wont stop....that would get a short squeeze going!
Guest Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 Hi Doc: I think it's safe to say that we all understand the need for rules and decorum. I feel somewhat responsible for having initiated a discussion on page 6 of the prior thread which may have sparked a political bebate. At the time I made my post, I even stated that I hoped it would be viewed for its relevence to the future direction of the markets, rather than any political statement, as frankly that's just about all anyone here is hoping to come to some clarity on. I also think it's safe to say that there is no absolute way to separate world events from market discussions. Was 9/11 political? Was it news? Was it just noise? It caused one of the biggest market collapses in history. Is it political to discuss the event-risk posed by other such possibilities? God, I hope not. I'm the most apolitical person I know. I despise all politics. I am however quite interested in not losing my ass in the market, and when I noticed a little too much bullish optimism developing not just here on the board - but in my own portfolio, I felt compelled to remind us all about the 800 pound gorilla that remains in the room. I honestly don't know where the line is - so some clarification would help all of us. I know it's political when people start pitting Democrats vs. Rebublicans or disparaging politicians. I frankly don't care about any of that - only the effect that actual events will have on the direction of the market. We're all hoping to identify the next trend in order to profit from it if and when a new trend gets under way. In the meantime - we're watching the grass grow, and talking over the fence to our neighbors about the little things and the big things that might impact our futures. It's a little difficult to ignore the significant impact that California's economic situation will have on the rest of the country - the real estate industry and the markets. That they are recalling their Governor and other people want his job is political. Where's the line in that discussion? Plunger
mjkst27 Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 um, where do you see gold up 5 bones? looks like down a buck to me
BAREister Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 N Korea yesterday announced it's through w "talks" re disarming it's nuke capability. Lettuce c how the markets react to that.
purdymouth Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 N Korea yesterday announced it's through w "talks" re disarming it's nuke capability. Lettuce c how the markets react to that. Bullish!
SkiddMarket Posted September 1, 2003 Report Posted September 1, 2003 N Korea yesterday announced it's through w "talks" re disarming it's nuke capability. Lettuce c how the markets react to that. Hmmmm... I guess the market will probably react the same as it has the past 10 times N. Korea has threatened the exact same thing. Down a little, then up a lot when Kim gives in again
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