ThorAss Posted August 2, 2003 Report Share Posted August 2, 2003 We move closer and closer to Argentina. Stocks will crash, the dollar will collapse, bonds will collapse and rates will soar. Real Estate will collapse. Gold will soar. Miners will soar. Commodities will soar in $ terms. Then stocks too will soar. All this is coming in a reasonably short time. But I have no idea what is going to happen Monday. I feel like Gertsner who is predicting a 30 year technology cycle but can't predict what's happening next quarter. Okay, the Death Zone is open zombies, walk around like mummies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 2, 2003 Report Share Posted August 2, 2003 We move closer and closer to Argentina. Stocks will crash, the dollar will collapse, bonds will collapse and rates will soar. Real Estate will collapse. Gold will soar. Miners will soar. Commodities will soar in $ terms. Then stocks too will soar. All this is coming in a reasonably short time. I agree, except that I haven't figured out if gold will drop into a crisis and then go up before its finished - or if it will start rising soon after Friday's surprise selloff. Frdiay's action makes me want to take the cautious approach and not take too many risks in the PMs. When the gold market finally takes off, missing the first $10 or $20 move will not be important. After reading some intelligent comments by some other Stoolies, I think the multi-level derivitive pyramid has become destabilized. The mortgage market can only function at this level on smooth, liquid markets. These may be gone now. The bond market will continue to get punished as duration and risk hedges become difficult, then RE will soon follow, then stocks will lose liquidity. The stock market seems to have been supported by credit this year and not real savings. The paradox is that if the market went up on real savings, the economy would have done even worse in the first half. And the first half wasn't even good enough to create any new jobs. Sell all rallies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted August 2, 2003 Report Share Posted August 2, 2003 WYNN. Casino stock run by former Mirage owner. Got way ahead of itself. Bubble, bubble, bubble. No earnings -- just "someday, somewhere He'll run a casino again." No 200-dma because it hasn't been trading that long. 50-dma "arc of a diver" pattern. A move up to that line, about 17.66, looks shortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted August 3, 2003 Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 We move closer and closer to Argentina. Stocks will crash, the dollar will collapse, bonds will collapse and rates will soar. Real Estate will collapse. Gold will soar. Miners will soar. Commodities will soar in $ terms. Then stocks too will soar. All this is coming in a reasonably short time. Any idea what order - or is it all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted August 3, 2003 Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 WYNN. Casino stock run by former Mirage owner. Got way ahead of itself. Bubble, bubble, bubble. No earnings -- just "someday, somewhere He'll run a casino again." No 200-dma because it hasn't been trading that long. 50-dma "arc of a diver" pattern. A move up to that line, about 17.66, looks shortable. THX - will add it to my watch list, looks interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 Any idea what order - or is it all at once. I see this happening all together and in a cascading event but initially in such a way as to hide that it is happening. As for gold, you have to ask yourself what is the most likely event. 1) People become desperate for cash. They have no jobs. Credit is no longer available and they still need to survive. They sell ALL their assets for whatever they can get for them in order to survive and pay the mortgage. They dump their gold onto the market. Gold drops. 2) Confidence in the dollar plummets. In order to protect their savings, people move their assets into gold and other precious metals. Gold soars. Two things to help you in your decision. In 1, one must remember that gold is not being held by the man on the street (yet) as he has been conditioned for years that gold is not an investment. This will ameliorate any selling pressure on gold. In 2, people have no savings. They have debt on one hand and tax sheltered funds on the other. They mostly don't have access to gold. They will not sell their 401ks to buy gold. They will only liquidate to survive. Call this Sheeple Watch. On the broad market. I see a spike up on the Dow to 9500 as the buying frenzy continues. This will be the final signal to the criminals to get short. When all the bears are enormously pissed off that the Dow sell signal from last week fails and really give up as it looks like this rally will never end and that the lack of selling pressure proves it's either long or wrong, that will be the death knell for this rally. Ding Dong. Next week maybe but I have no real idea when. The downside is enormous. The bottom of the channel alone would equate to a nearly 2000 point drop and it may not stop there. The smart are neutral here. I'm not smart. Gold and the PMS will do it's own thing which is to say don't expect a big market selloff to CAUSE a selloff in the PMS. It will follow its own agenda in this next move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 To my mind, it's all there. The bearish rising wedge in the Comp. One more push over 1800 then a sharp sell off to the 1400s at least. (Drool) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 I think the charts are suggesting an imminent rally (the next day or two) which will last 7 - 9 days and drag in the last of the "sideline money". We may even break up out of the channel in a spectacular flame-out time bear-crapitulation rally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 A look at the spew suggests that 1025-1035 is a reasonabull area for the top notwithstanding a finger above. However, the spoo is in a precarious position and needs to start rallying damn soon and without further weakness. A close below the 50dEMA just below would not be a red rag to a bull (or would it?). The SOX could make it to 425. 350 is the creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted August 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 On the Cubes watch for a move above 33 then short on signs of falling momentum. May have to wait until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 3, 2003 Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 I think the charts are suggesting an imminent rally (the next day or two) which will last 7 - 9 days and drag in the last of the "sideline money". We may even break up out of the channel in a spectacular flame-out time bear-crapitulation rally. Gotta agree at this stage Thorass... the Aussie market in full flight up so either there's some expectation of a global rally or maybe overseas buyers coming in here. I've been stopped out of my puts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted August 3, 2003 Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 For a position trader -- not a daytrader -- there are plenty of short opportunities. SPX could rally back up to 1015 or a little higher, but so what? It's obvious even now that divergences will be piling up, indicating the last push up. Look at the banking index, BKX. It's broken below it's uptrend line from March. Price pattern suggests a rally, but without a new high...and there you are. C, JPM and the rest of them look ripe at this point...if you're looking out at the next 2 to 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted August 3, 2003 Report Share Posted August 3, 2003 This has got me freakin' and peakin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted August 4, 2003 Report Share Posted August 4, 2003 Hear this scenario on Tom O'Brien's show, postulated by one of the callers. Nasdog breaks to test the 1600 level, creates suddenly some FEAR, which we haven't seen since March, gets bears all frothy, bulls all afraid THEN out of nowhere, a huge parabolic rally to new highs on everything(indexes) and force the bears to cover and be totally confused and get the bulls completely confident again, VIX falls to sub 18, etc... This is because Nasdog has hugged that trendline/channel since March and a break of this trendline would get all the bears convinced they are genius and super short. The whole world is watching this trendline. But then it's a false breakdown from trend line and we come roaring back up. But what next?... I don't have a crystal ball, anyone else here volounteering theirs? Thanks for keeping Bear Stool going everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.