Guest yobob1 Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Just waiting and watching. No wavering on my part. Too many things have gone too wrong. Time is our friend. Funny all of those unemployed don't seem too confident. 18% of the workforce has lost a job sine the beginning of the debacle. Most of those finding replacement jobs are either part time or at a lower income. Tax receipts don't lie. Real unemployment is definitely above 10% and more likely at 12%. * In a less widely watched section of its report, the government is reporting that the unemployment rate in June was 10.6 percent, when you include people who are too discouraged to look for jobs and/or not fully employed. The figure would be worse if the government hadn't booted millions of people from the discouraged worker category into a no-man's-land where they aren't counted at all. * The two surveys the government conducts aren't even close in their picture of the job market. WHY YOU SHOULDN'T BELIEVE THE NEW JOBLESS STATS I won't post other than here and jrmfls area. Tired of answering bully questions which seem more lilke plaintive 2 year olds' "why?". Hi-Ho silver.......and away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 29, 2003 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Yob Boy: I'm with you. I can't post on Mulestool any more either. But it's safe over at the Outpost ass well. What about all the casual foreign (tech) workers who were gainfully employed yet somehow not counted adding to the productivity miracle. Where are they now? Unemployed in the US but working back home or working illegally somewhere? Yes tax receipts seems a better way to measure. Do you have a chart. How about one denominated in Euros or gold. That would be interesting. Anyway welcome to the Death Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 "Bill Gates sells a million Microsoft shares." -- news item. Not bullish, I don't care how you spin it. Why didn't he sell his PAAS shares, if he needed some dough? are you sure he didn't :grin: :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Yob Boy: I'm with you. I can't post on Mulestool any more either. But it's safe over at the Outpost ass well. What about all the casual foreign (tech) workers who were gainfully employed yet somehow not counted adding to the productivity miracle. Where are they now? Unemployed in the US but working back home or working illegally somewhere? Yes tax receipts seems a better way to measure. Do you have a chart. How about one denominated in Euros or gold. That would be interesting. Anyway welcome to the Death Zone. I ran a Corp Housing District in Silicon Valley during the boom, Unbelievable how many code writers there were, all of my 2 bedroom apts had 4 each, all here for 3 months to a year. They were the "NEW" migrant workers of Calf. Thousands would clog the highways each morning. They all "SAVED" their money and went home, they did such a good job they got to take their job with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 no einstein - interesting analogy. ThorAss - thanks again for your many comments and charts. It amazes me how little consternation that the plunge, yes plunge in bond markets, has impacted the market or even the thinking of market participants. Doc should get an award for both predicting and projecting the impact of higher bond interest rates on the economy. This is a bond market selloff that has few comparisons in the last 20 years. I should know, having worked in a bond firm for a while. The severity of the selloff is astounding yet hardly worried about. Maybe I am too bearish, but I can not envision more than the smallest (1 to 2%) stock rally being possible over the next month. This is no time to make a quick trade or time the market unless you are a real professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 "Bill Gates sells a million Microsoft shares." -- news item. Not bullish, I don't care how you spin it. Why didn't he sell his PAAS shares, if he needed some dough? are you sure he didn't :grin: :grin: Good point, NE. But I think, since he owns about 12% of the PAAS float, that he'd be required to say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 "Bill Gates sells a million Microsoft shares." -- news item. Not bullish, I don't care how you spin it. ?Why didn't he sell his PAAS shares, if he needed some dough? are you sure he didn't :grin: :grin: Good point, NE. But I think, since he owns about 12% of the PAAS float, that he'd be required to say something. ahhhh another failed attempt at humor on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 No, you're wrong, NE. I laughed...should have noted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Proctor and Gamble. Bulls want you to believe that today's market action was "neutral" and that, generally speaking, we're trading up and down in a range. PG chart says otherwise. Breakdown of the 200-dma with the first close BELOW it in months. Much volume on the break today, too. Significant because it is thought that PG is a "defensive" stock that could be owned in a downturn because of its low beta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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