Daily Pms Discussion Forum For Weds, Dec 18,2002

[ThorAss]

Attempt to start thread, yang dua.

 

Quite frankly, in a normal week I might have been worried about what happened yesterday but this week is anything but normal. In fact this is probably the least normal week of them all. As the CC says this is Alice in Wonderland Week where black is white and black is black (sic). I couldn't fault you if you took some of your amazing profits off the table and see how this all irons out when we get back to the real world next month. I may be putting out some offers of my own. yet, I feel there is a real risk of selling low and buying higher here so I'm not getting too excited.

[Drano]

Yeah, talk about bipolar disorder -- I find myself being happy when RGLD goes down, thinking maybe I can buy back the covered calls I wrote at a good price.... or maybe I should sell the shares I didn't write calls on....or maybe I should buy more....aggggggh. Actually I guess that's tripolar disorder.

 

Then, of course, if it starts going back up, I start regretting selling the calls.

 

By the way I seem to have sold the calls at the top -- at least what is I hope temporarily and only temporarily the top.

[ThorAss]

I suggest a visit to marketviews and a listen to Neely not because I believe what he's saying but well just have a listen.

 

Neely

 

Frankly, I think he's full of Stool. Not that I don't think that some of what he predicts may well come true but he seems convinced of his predictions as the One True Path. As for his prediction of the bear market being over in a few months and all the investing public will give up on the next downleg, then nobody will be buying during the next 5 years as we move above the old highs, forget it. That is a 5% scenario at best. It's not going to be that easy. This is double indemnity and we're going all the way, right to the end of the line as Fred MacMurray says. The Dow:Gold ratio will complete its move to single digits at some point. The investing public is far far from crapitulation. They will continue moving from bubble to bubble and from speculation to speculation until all the speculative excesses and excess inventories have been removed from the system. This will yet take many years. Bookmark this date and a year from now remove his predictions. He will look a chump by then.

 

Oh ya, and a few weeks from now this lthe very last bull in gold will be over for all time. I guess Neely doesn't follow the Austrian School. :grin:

 

Comments?

 

Ran my short scan today for stocks over $10. Got 29 returns. 10 of these were gold stocks.

 

AEM,AU,BVN,GFI,GG,GLG,NEM,PDG,RGLD,TVX

 

I'm looking for the exits but only with higher prices. However, if I'm to believe the gold bull is over and the broad bear market nearly so then I will need a quantum shift in my view of the world and the investing community. Can anyone help a poor misguided God?

 

Oh and you might want to catch Lynch

[Guest]

Did anyone catch Chris Locke on Crapvision-Europe this morning? Truly, this is one guy on Crapvision that is worth listening to! He's almost as good as Doc - and even more bearish, believe it or not. He spoke mostly about the European indices, but also mentioned the ass-and-pee (I'll post a short summary on IDS, once the new intra-day thread opens). Finally, he had a short saying about gold.

 

The guy is almost echoing my own thoughts! I felt in him exactly the same kind of indecision I feel. He uses both Elliott Waves and cycle analysis. He warned not to chase performance in gold, because the wave counts are very bearish and a top might be near. At the same time, he said that he believes that gold in a long-term bull market and that the dips should be bought. It was obvious that he felt the contradiction of these two analyses, so he tried to reconcile them by concluding that gold at around 327 would be a good buy.

 

Folks, I am sorry, but I just can't follow two real-time intra-day threads. I barely have the time to follow one.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Charmin]

I barely have the time to follow one.

 

Ditto. But we'll be watching Bontchev wherever he goes.

 

Doc yesterday in IDS on using the 14 day RSI

 

14= 1/2 of 28. A 14 day oscillator represents a 28 day cycle or thereabouts. In that sense a sell signal in a short term oscialltor can't be major. It's a sell signal for the cycle it represents. If longer waves are early in an up phase, a sell signal on 14 day oscillator will signal a down phase in a 28 day cycle, which may not be visible at all, given the strong upward slope of the early part of a 6 month and 1 year cycle. Six month and 1 year cycle oscillators show an early up phase within a very strong long term uptrend. Unless you are scalping, short cycle oscillator sell signals should be ignored. If you sell gold stocks at any time in this bull market, the probability is that they will run away from you before you can buy them back at the hoped for lower price.

 

Does Chris Locke post any of his views in text?

 

Sloth yesterday posted:

Gold stocks with a not-so-bad day, considering:

RIC +.87%

VGZ .59

MDG -.86

 

Big losers today:

HL -9.62%

KGC -8.70

GFI -7.08

[Charmin]

Dollar at risk as global investors quietly exit US

 

Here's a ratio chart - your comments

 

 

[Charmin]

Here's a weekly perspective - nice huh

 

[Guest]

ThorAss,

 

Have you added any BLO gold nuggets yet?

 

BLO.L BULLION RES London 12:02

22.70 p +2.00 +9.52% 102,700

 

Considering the broads and techs are so weak

I'm inclined to hang on to all PMs in my portfolio.

[ThorAss]

I've been doing my TA and if my server will cooperate I will include a few charts. I can't help feeling that the charts are trying to tell me to sell but that if I'm smart and patient I can get better prices in a few days to sell into.

A stick save on the US$ helped to push back Gold away from $355 and danger.

 

 

The Hewey is acting interesting and seems to be keying off lines of support and resistance parallel to the bounding trend line based on previous s/r lines. If support here is broken looks like the next comes in at 132. From here though it is still reasonable to expect some buying support and a push to either a minor new high or the next target which is a double intersection at the 155 high. I would look to ease out of positions at either or both of these points with a core hold looking for the red line. I'm not going to do anything before Monday. The hell with scam week.

 

[DrStool]

Don't forget to place a link to this thread over in IDS.

 

To do that, just copy the url to this page from the topic list, then go to IDS, open a post, click the http button above the posting box, paste the url in the little window thingy that opens up, then paste wome text in the mext little window thingy that opens up (sorry for the technical jargon) then click the ok button or whatever and you are done.

 

Like this Link to IDS forum

[DrStool]

By the way, Thor, how's your theme park project, Thorassic Park, going?

[DrStool]

Have you had your Golden Stool today? Uncle Buck too!

[Charmin]

Let us not forget what the fundies are looking at

 

http://www.fabianfinancial.com/images/roadmap.gif

 

complet contents of Fabian Roadmap

http://www.fabianfinancial.com/roadmap.jsp

 

Sound Sector Stategy signals

Precious Metals (PMPIX) 25% 12/16/2002

Precious Metals (RYPMX) 25% 12/12/2002

 

Safemoneyreport is advising

 

[Charmin]

Intraday ABC -

 

Historical HUI - Sept. 9 138.83

[Guest]

Charmin, that ratio chart looks like a trading range to me - and the price is currently at the top of that trading range and turning down. Since I don't think that the $SPX will go up any time soon, this implies to me that the $HUI is going down, at least to the 200-dma. Of course, a breakout above the September high will prove me wrong.

 

Regards,

Vesselin