ThorAss Posted June 9, 2003 Report Posted June 9, 2003 Didn't quite go according to plan. The direction was there, the lack of volume was there but the move down wasn't big enough. No, if you take Friday and Monday and put them together you sort of get the day I was expecting Friday. So, is it another case of the patterns again taking an extra day or even two for one to complete? If so, we may be looking at least another weak day Tuesday and may not see any significant upside before Friday. If however, you are of an optimistic bent you could see Monday's action as latent strength, and your enthusiasm could lead you to conclude that the performance of the PMS was quite reasonable considering the near-term negative technicals and that a big move is dead ahead. I'm still sticking with the plan to buy on weakness on this pullback but I'm not much interested in anything at current prices considering where we are in the cycle. I bought into a small position in CDE and still retain my position in MNG looking for higher prices there to sell into. The rest of the session I spent kicking myself for having sold my KRY just before the break-out. They don't call me ThorAss for nothing. Who's a naughty boy, then? Who's a naughty boy, then? I have alerts outstanding on all the DAu components and will add at set prices if conditions remain favourable. I'd like to see Hooey back at 144 at the very least but preferably 141. Lower targets are 138 and the low at 135.3. For the rest, still sitting on SMH shorts and watching and waiting.
ThorAss Posted June 9, 2003 Author Report Posted June 9, 2003 $GOLD: Looks like it could fart around here for a couple weeks more but then I expect it to break to lower levels. Targetting 342, probably lower. Late July - early August. $US: Gold's pullback could be orchestrated by a rally in Uncle Buck. A break up could come at any time but may well be preceded by a move lower first in the short term. Targetting 91 for a potential downside move and 95 - 96 on a rally. Zow: Looking bullish but now set up for a reversal. If we get a sharp move down this week I would abandon expectations for a higher high on the XAU this cycle. BGO: Well most of us here have abandoned the old Beagle and with good reason but it is interesting to note the similarities between the bottoming pattern this cycle and the previous one. There's a low risk trade to be had here. Although BGO may well have missed the boat this cycle and according to my brother suffers the problems that beset many Canadians and this is old mines, it may be set to move back into the 1.50s imminently based on patterns. It might be worth risking 5, 10 or even 15 cents in the hopes of getting 45 to 50 cents. FCX: Looks to be rolling over. This one has interesting implications for both the PMS and the broads. Caution flag is up. Could be a very early signal. GFI: Looks like it's shot it's bolt. Probably needs to go back down to the low 10s to gain some support. Implications fot the other SAs? GG: Looking toppy. Has had a couple of runs at 12. May have a couple of more attempts but I expect it will soon move back down to test it's LT support line. GLG: May even have formed an upsloping H&S pattern which would send it back to its LT uptrend line without much further upside. GSS: May need a rest after all the hard work. HMY: Usually moves with GFI. Double top? I would only play the break now. IAG: H&S Top? Downside risk big. KGC: More toppish looking congestion. More promise of retesting uptrend. KRY: The one that got away. Got caught up in my wholesale selling and forgot to hang onto the one stock I had with big break-out potential. Too late for me now. MDG: See AEM. MFN: Not bad action but I'd like to see a move back to channel base before buying. MNG: Stuck in a rut. Can it push higher? I'm still in this one. NEM: You're on your own on this one. Not like any other chart I follow in this suctor. PAAS: Another potential H&S implying a return to trend. RANGY: Now here's a definitive stock. Already back to trend. The true believer buys RANGY here. The doubter expects it to make a less steep uptrend line by probing lower. The doubter can find many downside targets. RGLD: Really an each way bet. Could go higher, double top possibly but I'm not a buyer here. RIC: No reason to buy this one. SIL: Looks likes it's rolling over. SSRI: Struggling gamely. I don't see strong upside. VGZ: Bad print today. Nothing more exciting than that to report. WHT: Just keeps rocking. Ready to test the old high at 1.19 as early as tomorrow then maybe a pullback with the rest of the suctor? That's how WE see it. Apologies for oarers or emissions. :grin:
Guest jrmfl Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 still working up to the breakout imo... gold is fine. plenty of noise, which is always good.
Charmin Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 can I wish for 2.50 on the SPX:$GOLD ratio before Thorps has dug our hole
ThorAss Posted June 10, 2003 Author Report Posted June 10, 2003 I'm now going to test posting Smackfarts using you-know-who's advice. Here goes: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[w,a]whclyyay[pf][vc60][ilb14][J13521173,Y] http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI:$GOLD,uu[w,a]dhlannay[df][pc50!c200!f][ilb14][J12109083,Y] If this works, you will see a Hooey chart and a Hooey:$GOLD ratio chart. Concentrating on the latter I think we can clearly see the dilemma. Do we have the case of ThorAss et al that a pullback, probably shallow, is imminent? Note the peaks in the ratio (vertical red lines) have coincided with the PMS rally tops. Evidence suggests that we are in the final blow-off stage and a high in this ratio and therefore likely the PMS is here or is imminent. But wait! Then there is the Victor Hugo - germwarfare scenario which says this thing has much further to run. This case is supported by the similarity in our recent move to the move that carried us out of the previous red channel. I will watch this graph very carefully now and will continue to post it. Personally I can not get myself IT long here due to the unfavourable cycle and seasoning. ST candle patterns suggest some further upside (based on the HueEx) but individual issues look tired. My model states at this time no new longs to be entered (IT) without either a clear primary BUY signal or a significant break-out. I'm blabbing on because waiting is the hardest part.
ThorAss Posted June 10, 2003 Author Report Posted June 10, 2003 Since I'm on a roll, And That really Charming fellow mentioned it I'll post (at least) one more. Below we have the Spew denoted in real money ie GOLD. This chart is full of goodies. Starting from the sharp end and working back we have a boner counter -trend run forming a cross as it started to roll over. This will likely end badly and soon with another gap down to complete the cross. Something in the 2.5 - 2.6 region. Now if this gap also is a gap below the lower line of the wedge formation than we can expect some real fireworks as this wouls send the ratio down to the lower rail of the big channel or below 2. If in the meantime gold hasn't really got's it's act together and is hanging around $350 then we'll be saying Spew 6??. Even if Gold rallies to $400, there's still a Spew with a 7 to start it in the near (this year) future. But basically it looks like the boner run is done. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX:$GOLD,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[df][pc50!c200!f][vc60][iua12,26,9!lb14][J11152134,Y]
5thelement Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 Pretty awesome charts Thor! Even the old guy Sinclair is using anecdotal evidence tonight to suggest GOLD is tired out now by pointing to positive articles in Financial Times about gold recently to suggest a short term top is in. Even though I've kept more miners in the game than I wanted due to the mixed signals about gold that I receive from various sources, my intuition has simply lost interested in miners for now and that tells me that I simply am not interested right now whether POG goes to $400 in the next 3 weeks or not. I will exit miners this week and rest for 1-2 months before getting back in the game. Good trading to all!
ThorAss Posted June 10, 2003 Author Report Posted June 10, 2003 Gold appears to have broken it's neckline although I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and a bit of leeway but unless we get some uppy action pretty soon we'll be over the hump IMDO. (Oh Me, it's hard to be humble.) Am watching 359.75 ... The Zow came within 2 measly points of reaching it's overhead downsloping resistance line. Are we now set to move back to the mid to low 60s? Looks it from up here. But who knows with a quick turn around and a melt up panic mode we could be in early 2002 mode all over again. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$XAU,uu[r,a]dhclyyay[df][pc50!c200!f][vc60][ilb14][J10249549,Y] Oh and thanks Fifth of the Night Shift. Ah, which reminds me and I now digress heavily as I watched the VCD of Night Shift that 1982 vintage Michael Keaton, Henry Winkler, Shelley Long film in which they run a mobile brothel out of the city morgue. Winkler's character is also an investing whiz. At the cusp of arguably the greatest bull market in stocks and bonds what does our boy wonder invest in? A burger joint. If the film had been made in 1999 what would he have invested in? What about today? Also I see they are remaking or have remade "The Italian Job." I guarantee it wouldn't be as good as the original in which the target of "The Job" in this late 60s early 70s? film was gold bullion. I wonder if they've had to update the nature of the score.
Guest Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 KRY went up because of short covering once the down trendline had been broken... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=kry.to,uu[r,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][j10742856,y]&listNum=3 ...many of the juniors are in this position...with large short positions in relation to their floats...Novagold is no execption...it's downtrend is not as steep as KRY's...but then it's a better company...from a political stability point of view...with assets that exceed KRY's...with Donlin Creek being the largest undeveloped gold deposit in the Americas... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nri.to,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J12993849,Y]&pref=G ...hard to accumulate in size in juniors when they put in reversal days like today...and it'll be even harder in the near future when the little guys that are selling watch gold sail over $400 and realize they made a mistake.
Guest AssMaster Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 CALVF 10 yr. Currently .165. Resistance came from a looooong way back there. Looks like accumulation to me (or is it distribution?), looking at the volume.
ThorAss Posted June 10, 2003 Author Report Posted June 10, 2003 Since we peons can't short stocks under $5, who's doing it?
Guest AssMaster Posted June 10, 2003 Report Posted June 10, 2003 KRY 10 yr. Currently 1.22. Bigtime resistance in the 2.5 area.
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