Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 This is a mail I received from South African chartidt guru Clive Roffey....I could only view the text but unable to view the charts wanted to share this with you...if somebody could extract the charts and post them on the forum would appreciate QUOTE Although no Share Action is due this week I am attaching my Gold Action newsletter for offshore investors as it focuses on the Rand and the gold shares. Clive Roffey UNQUOTE GoldAction342.doc (275.5 KB) link to news letter not updating if someone could provide me with his email would reforward it ...hoping that someone manages to extract the charts and repost on forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 link to news letter not updating if someone could provide me with his email would reforward it ...hoping that someone manages to extract the charts and repost on forum I'll try (I just sent you an email). OldMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Very confused. Beginning of another substantial decline or just a short term shakeout from weak hands before pulling a Yosh to 165? http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/goldheart.html I will not be an irresolute bear or gold bug I will not be an irresolute bear or gold bug I will not be an irresolute bear or gold bug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Using "Rule of Eights" HUI needs to hold above $123.17 or else it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Using "Rule of Eights" HUI needs to hold above $123.17 or else it could get ugly. Hey Pile, What's the rule of eights? Are you talking Gann and 1/8ths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 You can lead a horse to water...but you can't make him drink...that's what my typing teacher would tell me if I had one...anyway...looks like the public is not quite ready to partake in PM's just yet...as you can't foreget that 99% of the population simply don't know that a declining dollar will erode their purchasing power...looks like the diamond in the dollar just don't matter...and if the markets begin to decline in earnest...which I think they will...as the dollar continues to decline...PM stocks could get taken down with it... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20020126,20030426][pb50!b200!c20][vc60][iut!ub14!lm12!lw25][J11513056,Y]&listNum=25 ...the only real question then is the extent of the decline...are we entering a new bear market in the PM's ...I doubt it...but this market seems bound and determined to shake as many trees as possible to test your resolve...the long term charts look like a classic channel analysis failure... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[p,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lh14,3][J11440950,Y]&listNum=23 ...we have already seen a 50% retrace of the entire move once within this extended corrective flat...the question is...will we see it again?...that's a 95 HUI... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[l,a]daclyyay[df][pf][vc60][J11639293,Y]&listNum=30 ...we would have to bounce off 120 and start to move impulsively higher to negate the more negative view... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iut!ub14][J11964793,Y]&pref=G ...the XAU looks even worse...55ish looks in the cards if 60 doesn't hold... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xau,uu[e,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c155][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J12013354,Y]&pref=G ....the HUI/Gold Ratio could be heading down to the .34 area again to continue the corrective flat sequence that the PM's seem to be mired in right now...but notice it has the same count as the HUI itself...and that this should be the final leg down for it too... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui:$gold,uu[e,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J12002476,Y]&pref=G ...what can you do?...the dollar is breaking down...but the masses...who we need right now...the PM's need new investors...new investors however are still not convinced they need PM's for their portfolios...so they don't give the gold funds, brokers, etc. the funds required to buy PM's...therefore PM's go down...even though the fundamentals grow sronger by the day... ...the dollar diamond... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J11679848,Y]&listNum=34 ...the dollar fan... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[w,a]daclyyay[d19990130,20030731][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J9850316,Y]&pref=G ...the bullish Euro ... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xeu,uu[r,a]daclyyay[d19990101,20030731][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10433380,Y]&pref=G ...oil is the concern here...and it may be that it heads down to the $20 area before it heads back up... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!c21!f][vc60][iut!ub14!lm12!lh14,3][J11763647,Y]&listNum=33 ...if it does it will put a drag on the CRB...and gold won't like that... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$crb,uu[e,a]dacayyay[df][p][vc60][iub13!la13,34,8!lm12!lk14][J9910815,Y]&pref=G ...the gold fan...remains constructive in appearance ...but that could change too... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[e,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!c21][vc60][iut!lb14!lm12!lh14,3][J11956471,Y]&listNum=41 ...$330 is critical support for the bottom to remain constructive...if it gives out...the $310 to $317 area may come into play...we fell short of $317 last time around...and may have to print that level to complete the symmetrical unity requirement postullated in this view... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[l,a]dallyyay[df][pf][vc60][J11140043,Y]&pref=G ...interesting times...keep the faith...it's all designed to shake you out...the fundamentals always prevail in the end...and there simply are not enough PM investments to go around once the public wakes up... when that will be is anyones guess...however it looks like it could start in earnest after what appears to be the last leg of the corrective sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Correction...the second chart in the last post was the HUI fan... which actually looks constructive...this is the channel failure I was referring too... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[r,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c21][vc60][iub14][J11802165,Y]&listNum=35 ...sometimes...actually lots of times when I'm annotating the charts with my old computer crashes... so I couldn't take the chance to try while into the post ...I was going to change the scenarios to adjust to what looks to be an impending down leg...but I'm not going to do that just yet...let's see if 120 holds. That would surprise a lot of chart huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 nice charts SCHROL: 2 days down on HUI doesn't mean the up move is over. I think the D top on your wave count is yet to come, maybe in 4 weeks? I still plan to sell all miners on this move up and take the summer away from miners. Anyone care to comment on when to buy BEARX? Perhpas wait for another re-test of the lows as the S&P, Nasdog will probably re-test their highs again before the big cliff dive? ALSO, SPECULATOR! Really liked your post in IDS about how the masses are brain washed to never sell their 401K stocks/mutals as they do not read economic history and will never sell until it's too late. All sharp down movements will be managed somewhat. PLUS, all the shorts have to cover. I agree that it's unlikely we'll see a 1929 style crash. It'll never fly politically and it won't be allowed plus the masses aren't ready to capitualate YET (unless we have a nuke disaster somewhere) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 *** This is SCHROL's material *** Please go to: SCHROL's material Please post here if it does not work. OldMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Old Man...great yu managed but charts not showing?...could yu try to post the charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 A different view!! who knows? I remain quietly hopeful about the pm's. Although it is not possible to be sure about anything these days. Here's a comparison of two gold bull breakout legs on the HUI, the current one and the last one. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[d,a]dallyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j10301798,y]&listNum=6 Many similarities between each one here. I have color coded the support resistance lines in each phase for comparison. The second leg seems to be the big brother of the first, it's almost exactly twice as big. Those currently worried about the HUI should look back at how it moves before a big leg up and might take some encouragment from this chart. I know how discouraging the PM's can be at this phase, but it is too soon to write off the possibility a big positive leg just ahead in the next few weeks. The HUI looked almost as bad the last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Old Man...great yu managed but charts not showing?...could yu try to post the charts? If the charts don't show, please right-click in the area 'user posted image' and select 'Show Picture' (in Internet Explorer - probably similar in other browsers). Then, if you still cannot get the charts to display, please post here. Thanks! OldMan Sorry still unable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Old Man...great yu managed but charts not showing?...could yu try to post the charts? If the charts don't show, please right-click in the area 'user posted image' and select 'Show Picture' (in Internet Explorer - probably similar in other browsers). Then, if you still cannot get the charts to display, please post here. Thanks! OldMan Sorry still unable! Problem solved (hopefully). Please go to: SCHROL's material Please post here if it does not work. OldMan PS: Was a problem with the GeoCities server. Did a quick (and somewhat dirty) HTML job to get around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted April 27, 2003 Report Share Posted April 27, 2003 Using "Rule of Eights" HUI needs to hold above $123.17 or else it could get ugly. Hey Pile, What's the rule of eights? Are you talking Gann and 1/8ths? Yes. 5th, I'd buy BEARX now. Don't dally. Say goodbe to SPX 919. Its over. Odds are extremely low we'll get there again and even if we do it'll be brief. Downside potential here is 300 SPX pts. I've been in it since early Dec and I'm not flinching. That chart is not adjusted for 2002 distribution (I believe it was effectively about .46) I also love RYTPX (2x) We're going down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 27, 2003 Report Share Posted April 27, 2003 Beginning of another substantial decline or just a short term shakeout from weak hands before pulling a Yosh to 165? Just a small correction before a second attempt to rally to slightly higher than where we topped - i.e., to around 340-345 on the POG. Yosh's 165 on the $HUI is a dream that won't come true this year. :cry: We should consider ourselves lucky if the POG doesn't fall below 312. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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