Guest Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 ...that shed some light on things....here's a different interpretation of the VXN...which does apply to the VIX as well...but I just don't have the time to them all...bottom line...the markets are going to get even more volitile...both up and down... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxn,uu[e,a]dallyyay[df][p][vc60][iut!lb14!la12,26,9!lk14][J11956419,Y]&listNum=40 ...it's amazing how many different interpretations can be arrived at...no?.....here's a silver chart with the fans... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$silver,uu[w,a]dallynay[dd][pb50!b200!f][iuo14!up14,3,3][J11956465,Y]&listNum=42 ...in my opinion...once silver gets through this area it's gone...$5 won't put up much of a fight this time...notice the expanding fan intervals once we get through $4.62...with only weak resistance denoted in the fan line that intersects $5...gold now... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[e,a]dallyyay[pb50!b200!c21][vc60][iut!lb14!lm12!lh14,3][J11956471,Y]&listNum=41 ...notice we are in a consolidation area denoted by the tighter proximity of the fan lines...notice also that once we get through the next fan line that we will start progressing into a potentially explossive situation denoted by the expandinding intervals between the lines...just like silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 INTERMARKET RELATIONS :wink2: Something very important happened yesterday...the Gold/Oil Ratio broke out. What was the character of the event? Crashing oil and subued gold trade. Is that going to define the trend going into the future? Maybe and maybe not.But oil does play an important roll in the CRB. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold:$wtic,uu[r,a]dallyyay[d19900328,20030731][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J11264195,Y]&pref=G But oil does play an important roll in the CRB. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$crb,uu[e,a]dacayyay[df][p][vc60][iub13!la13,34,8!lm12!lk14][J9910815,Y]&pref=G And, if it goes the full extent of the possible correction, we could see sub $20 levels. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wtic,uu[r,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10664193,Y]&pref=G Can the Ags. make up the difference? Again maybe maybe not, but they do look poised to surge. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gkx,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d19960111,20031231][pb50!b200!c155!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12!lw25][J11616737,Y]&pref=G So if oil can keep from collapsing, perhaps the character of the advance in the Gold/Oil Ratio will not neccessarily be a bad one, adding more fuel to gold's ascent as well. If not, then we have to hope that other elements in the CRB make up the difference. Certainly the currencies are cooperating in gold's favour...with the Euro surging higher and USD breaking down...Euro first. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xeu,uu[r,a]daclyyay[d19990101,20030731][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10433380,Y]&listNum=9 USD next...bombs away time...93 is the next major support area. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[w,a]daclyyay[d19990130,20030731][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J9850316,Y]&pref=G The question begs however, if the commodities are not bouyant, and we enter a macro deflationary period, will the depreciation in dollar be enough to bolster gold all by itself? Well, one thing's for sure, the public is going to have to attain a higher level of conciousness. And if there is any indicator out there that points to the possibility of this process beginning, it's got to be the Silver/Gold Ratio. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$silver:$gold,uu[r,a]dalayyay[d20020211,20031231][pc21!c155!f][vc60][ium13!la3,5,8!la13,34,9!ub14][J10076629,Y]&pref=G To me, it looks like we're building a head right now, in an inverse H&S's pattern. This means that even though economic activity is likely to decline in the future, silver is being bought as a cheap currency alternative for investment purposes. So, bottom line, PM investors should be rooting for higher oil, as that will mean the character signature of the breakout in the Gold/Oil Ratio entails rising oil with gold rising faster on a percertage basis. But if this is not the character, and oil falls here, because of contracting economic activity, the CB's are going to have to print more fiat, further eroding the relative values of their currencies. The only question is who's going to do a better job of depreciating their currency. I'd have to bet on the US, as it needs a cheaper currency to get consumers, foreign included, buying domestically, in order to correct it's deficits. And of course the Euro is associated with a gold cover claus, whatever that means today, so there should be added support for it in that knowledge, hopefully supporting gold within a macro deflationary environment, if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Here's my bearishist outlook for HUI using short-term confluence at our bottom and also chew on Feargreed Dude's XAU fib squat clusters My next lower confluence is 124.26 - 120.80 A1 112.61 A2 114.22 B 131.47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 24, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Charmin, is that ewe? You've gone kinda SILVER!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Speculator: Where can I see SA stocks trade overnight and observe the SA miners in action ahead of the US markets? thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Wouldn't that be something - a disinfectant helmet I've gone Roman alright - in honor of the revived Roman Empire gathering in Europe and in honor of the Euro Remember Nebuchadnezzar's dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Was thinking about that Elliot theory and 5 waves. If so I figured wrong - on our third attempt at $336 it must break and hold. 1 down and two to go. You have every right to dispute my misconceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 CELTIC RESOURCES PRESS RELEASE: Listed on LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE The Directors of AIM listed mining company Celtic Resources Holdings Plc (CER) are pleased to report progress on the 100% owned Suzdal Gold mine in Kazakhstan where an internal feasibility study on the Sulphide Project has been completed. http://www.celticresources.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Maybe I miscalculated those waves by not including the prior $336 - if so, then 2 down and 1 to go. Assuming 5 waves are to be considered here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Pitbull: long time no see. surprised you haven't swapped Avatars like many of us. I notice you sent me an e-mail back in Dec but I didn't even know I had an inbox on CapitalStool until this week. so don't think I was ignoring ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Hui MACD daily crossing 0 line ...make yr bets!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Hui MACD daily crossing 0 line ...make yr bets!! Very similar pattern oct-dec 02!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 The strength in the tech stocks this morning is amazing. All of them opened down on the red anywhere from 1-5% down. Now in 1 hr, some are already green and many have clawed back to recapture the intraday losses. AMR, american, is flat now, Could've bought for 3.58 and gained 25 cents already. I'm just waiting for the broads to have more of a correction but otherwise, we should join the party in Nasdog land. Roger Arnold explained that the huge supercomputer robot programs have tweaked their models for a bullish economy to show up later this year and money is flowing into their selected sectors. THEN the technical crowd will follow(arent' we seeing that now) and really get the party going. This bully rally in the broads could last 6 months!!! we shouldn't miss out. I'm tired o the lack of liquidity in the miners. Simple Guy is getting the wave counts and bullishness right. There's gonna be a HUGE postwar party and we shouldn't be sitting here "HOPING" the miners will go up. I'm going to wait for the broads to correct some more and scare off any weak hands inthe tech stocks and then I'll jump in to catch part of the wave. If POG can hit $360, Saville's prediction, I may even sell half my physical and wait to buy it later this summer for the same or cheaper price than original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 24, 2003 Report Share Posted April 24, 2003 QQQ's anyone - is that 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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