SevenOfEleven Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Anybody listened to Oyster's presentation on Crapvision-Europe this morning? For some reason, it was about 20 minutes earlier than usual (I wonder whether this shuffle is permanent?), so I missed the beginning of it (basically, the stuff about the SPX). The part relevant for this forum is that he thinks that the move from the February top in gold was impulsive. Meaning, that it was wave 1. He didn't spell it out, but you do realize what this means, right? A 5-wave down move, to sub-200. :cry: What he did say was that this rally is corrective (I agree - but I was hoping for wave B, not 2) and that it will probably top out at 347 and that we should sell at 345 and not be bullish on gold, unless the POG can rise above 389. Drat. :cry: Of course, it is always possible that he's wrong - but given how often he's right, that's not a bet I'd like to take... Regards, Vesselin That's kind of what I was thinking (larger move down than an ABC correction). Did you mean sub-300 or really sub-200? Anyway, I was planning on selling my 'just in case' physical dong (bought at 335) at 345 (hey - better than a loss) and buying back in on the next drop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Only got a sec. Caught Oy for the first time today. Maybe for the same reason you missed it. On the Spew he mostly went on about the wedge pattern and how there was much upside left. Hopefully this was a typo and you meant that he said that there wasn't much upside left?! I see the wedge; I pointed it out in my analysis in my forum; I simply don't see how the SPX could go above 950 - and even that much is extremely unlikely, IMNSHO. I'll wager that the methods that work well for the SPX are hit and miss on gold. So far he has been correct on this subject - like in most other TA-related subjects. I give his scenario (gold 200) a very very very low probability Hold on, he didn't say anything about gold 200. That's what I said is implied by his scenario. He just talked about how when this corrective rally is over gold is headed to the low 300s. but if it comes it will take a while (it's not going there this year) Yep; should take 3-5 years by my estimation. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Can anyone explain how to read SCHROL's SA Rand chart that you gave us a link to. It's showing the RAND increasing against US$, right? which hurts the performance of the SA stocks in terms of their profitability. So wouldn't the SA miners be weaker against US miners in this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 could be somehow overextended...in the stochastics...in the HUI...but this is the point where the meat of the gains are put in...and we are still in wave C up on the count... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[p,a]daclyyay[d20][pb50!b200!c155!c21][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lv25!lk14!lm12][J9855405,Y]&pref=G ...once we get through the current five count...we could see an ABC correction back down to the 130 area one more time before we lift off for real...the HUI/Gold Ratio remains support of more near term strength and is leading the way... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui:$gold,uu[r,a]dacayyay[d20020304,20031231][pc21!c155!f][vc60][iub14!lm12!la13,34,9!lw25][J9797551,Y]&pref=G ...the HUI isn't doing much damage against stocks right now...but it's killing the dollar... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui:$usd,uu[h,a]wallyyay[d19970413,20030731][pb200!b50][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lh14,3][J9806774,Y]&pref=G ...we breakout above that last charcoal resistance rail..and the HUI will just keep going higher...and most won't know why...gold is doing some damage against the dollar as well...not much yet though...as it is lagging the stocks... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold:$usd,uu[h,a]wallyyay[d19910413,20030731][pb200!b50][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10464386,Y]&pref=G ...notice though that it's about to start chewing through the resistance rails it fell through on the way down... ...the most significant occurence yesterday was the strength of the SA gold stocks...while the NA's remained weak as a whole...this is a change of pattern from the past 6 months of trading characteristics in the gold complex...and bodes well for more near term strenght... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=au,uu[r,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10902568,Y]&pref=G ...Anglo wasn't up...but what a nice looking chart no?...Harmony was up though... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=hmy,uu[e,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10175611,Y]&pref=G ...and so was GFI... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gfi,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J10852580,Y]&pref=G ...shooting star put in on GFI yesterday...but it's no match for the reversal doji put in the day before...so I would expect any weakness to be minimal...the SA Rand is the key to the SA's leading the way and it looks to be in the terminal leg of it's ascent... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_RAM3&v=d12 ...as although we may see a little more weakness in the PM's over the next couple of days as the stock market continues to party into options expiry...next week offers great promise if the currently unfolding situation in the PM's continues to develop according to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Did you mean sub-300 or really sub-200? I really meant sub-200, although Oyster didn't say it. Think about it. The bullish scenario is that the rally from the April 2001 low to the February 2003 high was wave I. If that were the case, we should be in an ABC correction since the top. If the move since the top was impulsive instead, then this 3-year rally was really a corrective move in a bear market - wave IV, I say, or wave Y, says Prechter. In both cases, we should have a very strong 5-wave impulsive move down (wave V or wave Z). By my estimate, it should go to around 187. Think about it. If the crash since the February top (because for all practical purposes it was just that, a crash - at least that's what I call a 18% drop in less than a month) was just wave 1, can you imagine how wave 3 will look like?! Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 could be somehow overextended...in the stochastics...in the HUI...but this is the point where the meat of the gains are put in...and we are still in wave C up on the count... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui,uu[p,a]daclyyay[d20][pb50!b200!c155!c21][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lv25!lk14!lm12][J9855405,Y]&pref=G ...once we get through the current five count...we could see an ABC correction back down to the 130 area one more time before we lift off for real...the HUI/Gold Ratio remains support of more near term strength and is leading the way... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui:$gold,uu[r,a]dacayyay[d20020304,20031231][pc21!c155!f][vc60][iub14!lm12!la13,34,9!lw25][J9797551,Y]&pref=G ...the HUI isn't doing much damage against stocks right now...but it's killing the dollar... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hui:$usd,uu[h,a]wallyyay[d19970413,20030731][pb200!b50][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lh14,3][J9806774,Y]&pref=G ...we breakout above that last charcoal resistance rail..and the HUI will just keep going higher...and most won't know why...gold is doing some damage against the dollar as well...not much yet though...as it is lagging the stocks... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold:$usd,uu[h,a]wallyyay[d19910413,20030731][pb200!b50][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10464386,Y]&pref=G ...notice though that it's about to start chewing through the resistance rails it fell through on the way down... ...the most significant occurence yesterday was the strength of the SA gold stocks...while the NA's remained weak as a whole...this is a change of pattern from the past 6 months of trading characteristics in the gold complex...and bodes well for more near term strenght... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=au,uu[r,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10902568,Y]&pref=G ...Anglo wasn't up...but what a nice looking chart no?...Harmony was up though... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=hmy,uu[e,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J10175611,Y]&pref=G ...and so was GFI... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gfi,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][J10852580,Y]&pref=G ...shooting star put in on GFI yesterday...but it's no match for the reversal doji put in the day before...so I would expect any weakness to be minimal...the SA Rand is the key to the SA's leading the way and it looks to be in the terminal leg of it's ascent... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_RAM3&v=d12 ...as although we may see a little more weakness in the PM's over the next couple of days as the stock market continues to party into options expiry...next week offers great promise if the currently unfolding situation in the PM's continues to develop according to trend. silver is on a roll :grin: ...I don't see any significant resistance until we get to $5... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$silver,uu[r,a]daclyyay[d19900409,20031231][pb50!b200!c155!f][vc60][iub14!lm12][j11565569,y]&listNum=26 ...the silver stocks don't care as they have seen this routine before...so we may have to get through the $5 area before they participate in earnest... http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=paas:$silver,uu[e,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c155][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lm12][J11599929,Y]&pref=G ...although I must say that the correction in the PAAS/Silver Ratio looks just about complete...so I may be wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Explain me this: Just what is the FEED accomplishing? More loans at 3.9% or less for items you wouldn't think of buying before while "commodities" will take more of those day to day dollars. If there is dollar creation it doesn't sound like it's getting pigeonholed anywhere - unless some more Saddam's are out there stashing it away for a coming crisis. Is it one big sucking sound going into commodities. Where do you see it going? --- I should add - is the government sucking up all that dollar creation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Did you mean sub-300 or really sub-200? I really meant sub-200, although Oyster didn't say it. Think about it. The bullish scenario is that the rally from the April 2001 low to the February 2003 high was wave I. If that were the case, we should be in an ABC correction since the top. If the move since the top was impulsive instead, then this 3-year rally was really a corrective move in a bear market - wave IV, I say, or wave Y, says Prechter. In both cases, we should have a very strong 5-wave impulsive move down (wave V or wave Z). By my estimate, it should go to around 187. Think about it. If the crash since the February top (because for all practical purposes it was just that, a crash - at least that's what I call a 18% drop in less than a month) was just wave 1, can you imagine how wave 3 will look like?! Regards, Vesselin Unfortunately for many I think you're right. I hadn't thought about the extent other than a possible low that's higher than the 2000 low but I agree - if what we just saw was wave I then it'll be more severe most likely - even if we get a flat V because of the magnitude of wave III. Hey - in my book that spells a coming buying opportunity in physical metal and that's a good thing considering where everything may be headed in the slightly longer run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Schrol's HUI Original can't seem to get large one to post [V.B.: 'Coz you've used the URL of the Web page containing the chart - instead of the URL of the image itself. :wink2: Also, StockCharts doesn't like "&.gif" at the end of its URLs; you must use only ".gif" here.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 SCHROL: Lovin' your charts! But if POG is doing a B wave up as part of an ABC wave down, do you really think Silver can break $5 in this current run up as silver is still the tag along little bro/sis?? .20 in 3 days is impressive but gold has spiked from $326 to $336 in 5 days also which is pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Here's one from John for THORass http://trending123.com/stocks/chart_of_thor.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 OK Bontchev, one of these days I'm going to get it right. Seems that HUI doesn't want to go beyond it's 1:1 ABC target of 131.61 - high so far 131.47 I was figuring an ABC on SPX and a 1:1 ABC from the last A point of 843.68 would give a target of 923.97, but that last ABC retraced about 95% so I just can't picture it arriving at 923. But what do I know - nuttin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 SCHROL: Lovin' your charts! But if POG is doing a B wave up as part of an ABC wave down, do you really think Silver can break $5 in this current run up as silver is still the tag along little bro/sis?? .20 in 3 days is impressive but gold has spiked from $326 to $336 in 5 days also which is pretty good too. hard to evaluate at this moment as 5 has to be broken ...what's excellent is that gol and silver are both up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 How many $5 POG pounding will it take to arrive above $336 donut know, but it should be interesting when it arrives --- Cool - Doc's 3 day cycle cmap on SPX has moved up to 920-23 ABC target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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