ThorAss Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Now hang on, that was short the broad market and DONG the gold miners, or was it the other way around? Looks like this up channel in the SMH will be active, at least until the gap is filled. Anyone else brave enough or foolhardy enough to short it on a gap closing trade or will you sensibly wait for a Topi Doji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormydaze Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 May I have another Doji please,ThorryASS? I think Iheard a toilet flush. Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 23, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 I thought I heard gunfire. Just another drive-by. Your name wouldn't be John, would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Tom O'brien's calling for a pullback of some kind, small and short at least before surgin higher on the broads. Volumes on indexes were weak across the board. Saville sent out an alert tonight - says S&P is at the very top of it's channel and with such extreme sentiment indicators being so overly bullish, we could be a day or so away from an important peak. Hope we get to buy our miners back on the cheap again Oh, check out this sudden surge to 333.95 on POG!! yahoo! ---------------------------------------------------------------------- "the top of the channel in which the S&P500 Index has been travelling since the first quarter of 2000 lies at around the 920 level. In other words, at the close of trading on Tuesday the S&P00 was within 1% of its channel top. At the same time, sentiment indicators are revealing extremes of bullishness. This tells us that the market could be close to a very important peak (a peak from which a major decline will begin). Also supporting the idea that an important peak is at hand is the fact that Tuesday's stock market surge was not confirmed by other markets. For example, bonds were flat and the US$ was weak. Further to the above, a pullback is likely to begin very soon (the next day or so) and this pullback will POTENTIALLY evolve into a major decline. Whether it does or not will be determined by the behaviour of sentiment indicators relative to price action (a small decline that generates considerable fear would be bullish whereas a moderate decline that generates no fear would be bearish). Our short-term outlooks for gold and gold stocks are unchanged, that is, we expect them to remain strong over the next few weeks. In the currency market, a daily close of 73.50 or higher by the June Swiss Franc futures would confirm our view that a move to new highs (new lows for the US$) was underway." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 The best thing about Tom O'Brien show is when Tim Ord shows up. At least that's the highlight of my day - when I get the chance. The bedbugs bit me tonight so I couldn't sleep. Insomnia I think. How about an Elliot count of 5 for the SPX. I think it should top and go south. Also, look at Feedfools DIA chart. Hope this doesn't mean the PM take a beating again. Like those three upthrusts as Tim Ord calls them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Confused about Buck? yeah, we either have a diamond pattern that SCHROL suggested or is it bullish? someday's I haven't got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 HUI's latest channel hopping or topping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Have yu noticed...GFI & HMY finished higher ..when's the last time you saw that with most of the NA's down? The tide is turning in our favour...and it's because this thing is going to roll over soon... http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_RAM3&v=d12 ...we're in the blow off phase -- wave E -- terminal leg...and the SA's are beginning to sense that...when the SA's begin to lead again...you'll know the party's on for real...as that occurence will attract the global hot money momentum players...the kinda guys who aren't afraid to bid the PM shares up...in size. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 SCHROL - I guess I can go figure now that I sold some GFI, but alas I still hold more but, it is good of you to provide some insight ----- Bernie Schaeffer on Buck/SPX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speculator Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Thank god I hedged my AIG short with some calls. I should know better than to front-run a short the financials but bordom was setting in waiting for the HUI to pullback. Thor - I'm now looking at the semis for a short but I'm going to wait for it to roll over first, unless I can find a cheap hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takachi Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Most of the time the pattern for gold is up overnight in Asia and hammer down in the Comex open. Seems like lately we have a little weakness overnight and better strength into the open. Not sure what that might mean except it seems supportive. anybody have a projection for silver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Confluence for gold contract is $336 to $306. It wants to run to $339 which would put us on top of confluence and once the $336 is broken that resistance will be support. per Tom O'Brien Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Anybody listened to Oyster's presentation on Crapvision-Europe this morning? For some reason, it was about 20 minutes earlier than usual (I wonder whether this shuffle is permanent?), so I missed the beginning of it (basically, the stuff about the SPX). The part relevant for this forum is that he thinks that the move from the February top in gold was impulsive. Meaning, that it was wave 1. He didn't spell it out, but you do realize what this means, right? A 5-wave down move, to sub-200. :cry: What he did say was that this rally is corrective (I agree - but I was hoping for wave B, not 2) and that it will probably top out at 347 and that we should sell at 345 and not be bullish on gold, unless the POG can rise above 389. Drat. :cry: Of course, it is always possible that he's wrong - but given how often he's right, that's not a bet I'd like to take... Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 23, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Only got a sec. Caught Oy for the first time today. Maybe for the same reason you missed it. On the Spew he mostly went on about the wedge pattern and how there was much upside left. Unfortunately someone phoned and I missed the first half of the gold discussion. I'll wager that the methods that work well for the SPX are hit and miss on gold. I give his scenario (gold 200) a very very very low probability but if it comes it will take a while (it's not going there this year) and meanwhile the SPX goes to a 2 digit number. Can hardly wait. I've started shorting the broads again just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 23, 2003 Report Share Posted April 23, 2003 Confluence will hold us up - once we break above that $336 - I'm countin on it. So, we're talkin tops. How about SPX 21st Century snippet: With yesterday's rally, prices are above the crucial 40-week exponential moving average, which stands at 904 on the SPX. However, going over it and finishing the week over it are two different things. If prices collapse back under this level -- especially on a chaotic bifurcation -- then that will be a sign that the mid-term downtrend is underway. So my humble advice is that if you're dying to take a shot to the long-side -- if you're worried about "missing it" -- then don't hang around if price moves below 904 on the SPX. That way you can't get into too much trouble. It's just too risky for my taste, especially for Rydex trading. But if prices can meander back down to this 904 zone, and hold above it, then it's likely we could see another chaotic push higher, which would just serve to build an even greater bullish majority. strange repellers: http://www.21stcenturyalert.com/tcx/images...ing/2003-04-23/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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