ThorAss Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Sheesh, the weekend's half over and not much Stool about. Only 3 pages on MTM (meow) and not even a new Digest. Oh well, easily corrected. Daily Rectuming Interesting read. On Friday I thought of selling some so I could buy in on an expected OE Week retracement but never did. I think I'd make a crap daytrader. I'll have a look through the charts and see if there's anything I'd like to sell on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 12, 2003 Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 On Friday I thought of selling some so I could buy in on an expected OE Week retracement but never did. I think I'd make a crap daytrader. I'll have a look through the charts and see if there's anything I'd like to sell on Monday. It would not surprise me to see more correction (profit taking?) in the stocks with significant recent run-ups (e.g., GOLD and RANGY). The big question is: how low will they go? Any ideas? OldMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2003 Didn't find much I wanted to sell. I thought I'd put on a few STOPS, sell a couple but leave the bulk untouched. Looks to me like not a lot of downside risk at the moment but good upside potential although with some more sessions this could change. I founs only one that I thought looked overbought. I'll leave it to you to guess which one but it's brother did not look overbought. :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldMan Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 I founs only one that I thought looked overbought. I'll leave it to you to guess which one but it's brother did not look overbought. My guess: GOLD (the stock). 'Brother' RANGY has also had a good run (as I said in my previous post). Did I guess right? Now to the big question: How much will they correct (if they do)? Again my guess: Maybe $1.20-$1.50 for GOLD, and $1.00-$1.20 for RANGY (from Friday's close). Of course, it all depends on what gold (the metal) will do. We'll see. OldMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 On your 1st question. :wink2: On your second, I was thinking about 10%, so yes. On your 3rd statement, I think you've got that backwards. As gold was trying for the moon, the PMS was waffling. As they were piling on gold the PMS was doing Custer's Last Stand. Don't look to POG for a leading signal, except like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 Finally I found an Elliott Wave thingie that agrees with my goat entrails analysis. :wink2: Graph is from Extensive Inter-market Elliott Wave Analysis. The ST Hui chart in the article shows his Elliott view for the extent of likely ST weakness for the Hooey, so by all means, have a Captain Cook at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 June 11th, which he's got slated for the 'D' wave top synchs pretty well (+-4 to 5 days) with the next short wave cycle top I've got in my POG cycle studies. I don't see where he mentions the expected wave 'E', but my cycles show it as a short cycle low around 8/18/03. Finally, the next long wave cycle high I have that follows all of this (into his charted rightmost upward facing arrow) would be around 10/19/03. Remember - that's a long cycle == strong cycle. That last POG top we had was a long cycle top and you saw the power in that. The top that occurred the June prior to it was also a long cycle top - same thing - powerful upmove. So, presuming we do continue up on a course about as that chart suggests, those would be my premliminary dates for the turns. I'll hone them in as we approach them (unless we dump in which case I don't thing most will care). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldilocks Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 GoldiLots :grin: , I think we may be closing the curtain on the $306-$312 scenario for this cycle. I think I made hold off and buy some more physical at the next cycle low in the summer if it plays out that way as I'm a bit strapped at the moment. I figure if they're going to batter gold they'd better do it this week as it's probably their last good chance for a while. I also see a short term OE week pullback on the PMS but not looking for anything drastic. I keep finding excuses for not selling which is good at this point in the cycle. Unfortunately, I am fully long and can not tolerate much of a pullback without selling so I may sell pre-emptively (a little). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenOfEleven Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 This goes with my previous post regarding cycles and the bullish e-wave count image/article posted by ThorAss: The article specifically mentions the importance of tracking cycles on the various indices independently of underlying commodities. Very true, and to show why I thought I would post an updated version of my HUI and XAU charts that have POG cycle highs noted on them. On each chart you can see the previous six short cycle highs of the POG in blue vertical lines with associated dates. Every two short cycles equals one long cycle. Additionally I added the last cycle low as a thin green vertical line to the far right. What you can see is that the POG cycles are running more and more out of phase with the HUI/XAU as time goes on. Note how synched the initial three blue lines are with the HUI/XAU highs and how the indices have been starting their turns earlier and earlier on the last three highs. The previous low, as well, came signifigantly earlier than the POG cycle low of on the 7th. One possible interpretation of this would be that people are anticipating POG cycles and jumping earlier and earlier into, AND OUT OF, the miners. Interpret the impact of this as desired. My interpretation is not very positive. I'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 This week's idiot wave update: I still disagree with its implications. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 As long as we're postin' charts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 13, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 In the past few days I've seen every manner of Elliott Wave prediction for the POG and the PMS, up, down, sideways, you name it. Great! Which ever one turns out closest to being right can be heralded as proof of the efficacy of the method. I'm not going any further with this argument without reading up on the method a little more first. Methinks I need to wander off down to Doc's bookstore to bone up. Would anyone like to recommend the single definitive tome on the subject? At least this ways I can have more than just circumstantial evidence when I devise counter-arguments for a "bearish" Elliott "count" that disagrees with my interpretation. One possible problem with the Zow and the Hooey is they seem to be coming less relevant as time goes on. They are not keeping up with what's happening in the PMS. It's worse than trying to follow the broads just using the Dow. The Hooey is not really a BUGS and the Zow is a bit of a joke. Probably do just as well basing analyses purely on NEM. I was hoping this weekend to getting around to doing my bit on what PMS stocks to short on a neckline failure after a major high. Maybe next weekend. I mentally developped a selection system but I haven't tested it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 SevenOfEleven nice work. I think we are onto the same things. Thor; downside risk is limited in my opinion. Risk reward for miners seems much better than the S&P, Nasty etc. for the next few weeks. NEM chart Dark lines are 81 day trading cycle and aqua is double that. I'm projecting 145 for HUI this go round although it's a bit early for projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted April 13, 2003 Report Share Posted April 13, 2003 A couple of my POG charts with the cycles I use. Turning the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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