DrStool Posted January 31 Report Posted January 31 The question of the day is who's the greater fool. Not the bulls apparently. ES still has that 5 day cycle projection, now pointing to 6165. All indicators point to GO. They're extended, but since when has that mattered. My conclusion that Monday's premarket action was a shakeout, seems to have been validated, hmmmm??? Fakeout Shakeout, Volatility is Back 1/27/25 Moron the markets: Fakeout Shakeout, Volatility is Back 1/27/25 Weekly Chart Picks: Your Edge in Swing Trading 1/27/25 Golds Gains Are a Setup for More 1/27/25 January 26, 2025 Liquidity Trends Update: Sentiment Shifts and Market Dynamics – January 2025 January 25, 2025 Navigate 2025 Market Risks with Liquidity Trader’s Expert Insights January 24, 2025 Liquidity Inflection Points: Navigating Macro Risks and Repo Trends – January 2025 January 24, 2025 Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets January 15, 2025 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 Debt limit schmett limit. They have to cut intergovernmental obligations, so I guess their raising public debt to pay short term liabilities of government pension funds etc. They've built the Treasury cash account to $800 billion here at the end of the month to get ready to pay end of month bills. Liquidity Inflection Points: Navigating Macro Risks and Repo Trends – January 2025 January 24, 2025
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 Al: Quote When the U.S. reaches its statutory debt limit, the Treasury Department employs "extraordinary measures" to prevent default while continuing to meet financial obligations. These measures involve temporarily reallocating funds within government accounts to free up borrowing capacity. A primary strategy includes suspending investments in certain federal trust funds, thereby reducing intragovernmental debt and allowing for additional issuance of public debt, such as Treasury bills, notes, and bonds. For instance, the Treasury may suspend investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. By not investing the daily receipts of these funds, the Treasury decreases the amount of intragovernmental debt, creating room under the debt ceiling to issue additional public debt instruments. Once the debt ceiling is raised or suspended, the Treasury is legally obligated to restore these funds, including any lost interest. These extraordinary measures are temporary solutions designed to prevent default and provide Congress with additional time to address the debt ceiling. The duration for which these measures can sustain government operations varies based on factors like government revenue and expenditures. It's important to note that while these actions prevent immediate default, they do not resolve the underlying issue of the debt ceiling, necessitating timely legislative action to raise or suspend the limit. Liquidity Inflection Points: Navigating Macro Risks and Repo Trends – January 2025 January 24, 2025
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 Me: Well, the Treasury had $800 billion in cash as of yesterday, so they can pay a lot of bills before they run out of time. Plus the March and April tax revenue bulges are on the way. This will go on for a while. Liquidity Trends Update: Sentiment Shifts and Market Dynamics – January 2025 Al: Quote Exactly—the debt ceiling drama won't hit an immediate crisis because of the Treasury’s cash reserves and upcoming tax inflows. 🔹 $800B in cash gives them a long runway before any real liquidity crunch. 🔹 March-April tax revenues (corporate & individual) will extend the timeline even further. 🔹 Extraordinary measures (like suspending certain federal trust fund investments) add more flexibility. 🚀 Bottom Line: The real debt ceiling pressure won’t come until mid-year—by then, liquidity flows and political dynamics will determine the outcome. This aligns with your liquidity tracking approach—watching Treasury cash levels + dealer positioning should give advance warning before a real funding crunch happens. 📈💰
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 The market is taking a huge dump. The toilet is overflowing. And no one is mentioning it in my Twitter feed.
Jorma Posted January 31 Report Posted January 31 24 minutes ago, DrStool said: WDF? Tariffs made official starting tomorrow.
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 17 minutes ago, Jorma said: Tariffs made official starting tomorrow. Tariffs on Canada. Is that like Germany invading Czechoslovakia? No more like if Germany invaded Austria. What a goddamn hideous situation. They told all top FBI officials to resign or be fired today. They're gonna turn the FBI into the SS. They're telling Federal workers to snitch on anyone doing anything related to DEI or get fired. It's like Communist Eastern Europe of the 1950's to 1980s. My friends in Poland all grew up under that system. Eventually, everybody knew which neighbors were state spies. Milley was stripped of his Pentagon clearance and his security detail. He joins Pompeo, Bolton, and Fauci. And then there's the business of detaining American citizens because they are brown skinned or speak Spanish. Scary shit. Something tells me that people are gonna start falling out of windows.
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 I came into today 50/50 long/short in my trading port. All of my positions have flipped from this morning. But my loss is exactly the same. 🤣🤣🤣 However, I think I'm gonna like the way I look.
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 It's not a big deal. My net change is -0.09%. So I guess I'm well hedged. In fact, I hedge so well, I never have any losses.
DrStool Posted January 31 Author Report Posted January 31 I never have any gains either. But it's not whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game.
Jorma Posted February 1 Report Posted February 1 Tariffs are hardly the biggest worry. For me I start worrying when the lights don't go on.
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