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Posted

Whatever you think about the markets, you need to think again. And you probably still won't get it right. But don't feel bad. You have lots of company. 🤣🤣

Clearly the market thinks it knows exactly because it has been locked tightly to the same price since last night. We have reached perfect equilibrium where the future is settled, and all possible outcomes are perfectly discounted. Even all the hourly oscillators are stuck near zero. 

For now, we're looking at a range of 6050-6060 on the ES. I don't expect much when it ultimately breaks out. Next resistance and spport levels are only 15-20 points away. On the upside, it would be a triangle breakout, so I'm expecting a little upside drama if it decides to go that way. If it clears 6080, then we're almost certainly in a launch. 

If the initial move is down, the lower line of the triangle is at 6020-25 this afternoon. That would need to be broken to get on a downhill roll. 

And away we go. Fakeout Shakeout, Volatility is Back 1/27/25

18oh7f


Moron the markets:

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Posted

The index of signed house purchase agreements unexpectedly fell by as much as 5.5% after rising by 12.6% in November. The surprise is considerable as the market was expecting a fall of just 0.2%. On an annualised basis, the fall was 5%

Posted

I sold a little early in FL, but I avoided those $10,000 / year insurance costs, not to mention the denied claims.  

Which is exactly why I was anxious to sell. After that hurricane that took a 90 degree right turn 100 miles off the coast of West Palm, I wanted out. 

One day a storm will take a track along the east coast of FL and sheer off and destroy one of the largest metros in the US, and it will be over. 

You had to be blind, deaf, and dumb not to see the FL insurance crisis coming. Now everybody wants out, particularly condo owners, and there are no buyers. 

Prices will need to drop 50% in FL to make it feasible to buy, given the insurance cost. 

Mortgage lenders will take ferocious losses. 

Not just Florida, but the entire Southeast and Gulfoa Coasts. 

It will only get worse. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, SiP said:

But Miami looks ok, right?

Sarcasm, right? 

Posted
6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Sarcasm, right? 

No. I never heard about tragedy there. Last winds were from the west. Guys in Miami are laughing.

Posted
37 minutes ago, SiP said:

No. I never heard about tragedy there. Last winds were from the west. Guys in Miami are laughing.

Florida is one market. Miami has as much risk as anywhere. Waterfront high rises even more.

The condo market has ceased to function throughout the state because of the new laws around structural soundness and raising reserves. Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, which are contiguous, are at the forefront. 

Google the cost of homeowner's insurance in Miami. Read the news stories about people losing everything, and more choosing to go without insurance if they even can. If you have a mortgage, for some, the only option is to mail in the keys. Read about the increase in condo inventory on the market as a result of the stress.

Dade County has 2.5 million people, and most of them are low-middle income workers and retirees, not billionaires. Yeah there are lots of people with money, but 80% of the people, you never read about because they're just ordinary people. 

I lived in South Florida for 30 years. I appraised major real estate projects. I was hired by the US Government during the S&L crisis, which paid for my research and opinions. When I opine about the real estate market in South Florida, I assure you that I'm not talking out of my ass, like some people.  

I can assure you that nobody in Miami is laughing.   

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