DrStool Posted January 28 Report Posted January 28 The market now has both uptrend and downtrend and uptrend channels. Take your pick. If the ES 24 hour fuguetures are above 6030 at the NY open, then the downtrend is busted and an uptrend is in force. It would face resistance at 6050-6054 through the NY close. If cleared then I'd look for a gap fill or partial fill. The gap runs 6070-6090. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 6100. On the other hand, if the ES is below 6030 at 10 AM, then there's a downtrend still in force. That should target spport around 6000-6007. If that should fail to hold, then a persistent drift lower would be in order for the rest of the day. Interesting setup on BTC. It's on the cusp. It will either resume the uptrend and target 120,000 or trigger an intermediate term sell signal if it drops under 99k. If gold breaks 2755, correction coming. Golds Gains Are a Setup for More 1/27/25 Moron the markets: Fakeout Shakeout, Volatility is Back 1/27/25 Weekly Chart Picks: Your Edge in Swing Trading Golds Gains Are a Setup for More 1/27/25 January 26, 2025 Liquidity Trends Update: Sentiment Shifts and Market Dynamics – January 2025 January 25, 2025 Navigate 2025 Market Risks with Liquidity Trader’s Expert Insights January 24, 2025 Liquidity Inflection Points: Navigating Macro Risks and Repo Trends – January 2025 January 24, 2025 Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets January 15, 2025 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 A couple weeks ago I tweaked my swing trade screens to better reflect the theories behind the technique. AI gave me the ability to program refinements into the screens that would more closely replicate visual review for the short term trigger criteria. I screen for 3 time frames, major, intermediate, and short term triggers. To pick up the good longer period setups with the coding from AI I've been able to program a 10 day lookback period. It gives me a larger group of setups from which to screen for short term trigger signals. The AI has given me the ability to code for 3 different types of short term triggers with which chart traders would be familiar involving, oscillators, certain types of moving average crossovers, and touch and go patterns. Great, but for major trend purposes it has a built in lag which isn't useful in helping call major turning points until after the fact. They were still lopsidedly bullish this morning at 393 buy to 144 sell of the 1440 stocks that met price and volume minimum criteria. Maybe late, or maybe this remains very much a bull market. Too soon to tell. So new news there. But look how the margin narrowed for intermediate term. 143 buy to 110 sell. Almost even. Again, there's that 10 day lookback period, so if this is a turn, we have to be ok with being a little late. But the kicker is the short term. The weekend screens showed only 9 short term buy triggers and 42 sells. Of course, with the gap down yesterday and the market opening at the lows, not much help. And In fact, the stocks that got hit the worst weren't among the sells. The news was the killer, and it was a true surprise. While it hasn't turned the tide of major trend setups, it certainly impacted the intermediate and the preponderance of sell triggers at least has attracted our attention. Today, there were just 9 short term buys triggered, mostly in stodgy typical defensive names. There were 38 short term sells. If this is a major turn, first the short term triggers must increase. Then come the intermediate. Finally the major trend setups would need to increase on the sell side to reach a plurality before we'd conclude that a new bear market had begun. That would normally come a few weeks after the market had peaked. There might be hints in terms of reaching extremities, but until there's a shift in long term trend indicators we can't be comfortably certain. In the meantime, we can start to take small positions.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 3 hours ago, Jimbo said: THINGS ARE GETTING A BIT WOBBLY NVDA taking a bit of hit. Trump and Melania coins are indeed signs. The proliferation of greater fool assets is always a sign.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 Nobody has been around for awhile. I can honestly say that I blame Nobody. If it weren't for no one, then someone would be here. I wouldn't be here if I didn't own the thing.
potatohead Posted January 28 Report Posted January 28 45 minutes ago, DrStool said: Nobody has been around for awhile. I can honestly say that I blame Nobody. If it weren't for no one, then someone would be here. I wouldn't be here if I didn't own the thing. need to start having AI programs talk to each other on this site.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 Alvin: Quote The Market's Balancing Act – A Stoolie's View Today’s market felt like an acrobat on a high wire, precariously poised between optimism and trepidation. With mixed signals from key sectors, we saw tech and growth names rally on the back of stabilizing bond yields, while defensive sectors took a breather, hinting at cautious positioning by institutional players. The latest data on consumer sentiment and GDP growth suggests that the economy is still trudging forward, but the specter of tighter monetary policy looms large. Volatility in energy prices and the dollar’s erratic behavior added to the intrigue, with commodities providing both opportunities and pitfalls for traders. For Stoolies keeping a close eye on technicals, the S&P seems to be flirting with a key resistance zone, which could dictate the tone for the rest of the week. The VIX remains subdued but isn't asleep—perhaps the calm before the storm? How are you positioning for what’s ahead? Are we in for a breakout, or is it just another head fake from Mr. Market? Let’s discuss. 🪑📈 I guess Alvin considers himself a stoolie.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 I think that yesterday's selloff was the fakeout. It was news driven and counter technical. S&P Futures: Volatility is Back – What’s Next for the Market?
Jorma Posted January 28 Report Posted January 28 Actual trillions of expenditures could possibly not be spent. Let's be realistic. Hundreds of billions. Better start recalculating Treasury borrowing needs and dates.
DrStool Posted January 28 Author Report Posted January 28 47 minutes ago, Jorma said: Actual trillions of expenditures could possibly not be spent. Let's be realistic. Hundreds of billions. Better start recalculating Treasury borrowing needs and dates. I doubt it, but let's assume that they get away with it, even though it would be blatantly unconstitutional not to spend what Congress has appropriated, not that that matters in a dictatorship. Assuming they cut trillions from spending, the US economy, nay the world economy, would collapse. Money supply would collapse without government borrowing. I don't think that would be bullish. Not to mention the masses of starving homeless people. It's all a dystopian vision. Not plausible, but entirely possible.
Takachi-1 Posted January 28 Report Posted January 28 What is there about the present process that is less inflationary than simply creating 4% more currency each year to accommodate growth. As an aside Friedman documented that in the 1880s we had spectacular growth in the midst of significant deflation. Deflation is not an inhibitor of growth.
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