DrStool Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 As I pointed out yesterday, the degree of extension on hourly oscillators was extreme. That's not just on the one hour bars we normally look at, but all the way out to 5 hour bars. On the other hand, the overnight sleepwalk allowed the oscillators to fall back to the zero line. An upturn from here could be explosive. That's what usually happens when moves start from the neutral zone. But if the indicators drop into negative turf, then we could be at the beginning of something far different from the recent straight up norm. We'll just have to see how the first half of today goes. Maybe we'll know something by 2:30 turn time. For now, the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows trend spport holding at 6075. If they break that, then we can think about potential reversal. Otherwise, we gotta go up and test the high of 6100 before anything happens. Unlock Market Trends: S&P 500 and Dow Analysis for January 2025 For perspective, here are the 5 hour bars. Moron the markets: Unlock Market Trends: S&P 500 and Dow Analysis for January 2025 January 21, 2025 S&P 500 Outlook: Key Levels and Cycles for January 2025 January 21, 2025 Maximize Your Trading Edge with Weekly Technical Chart Insights January 20, 2025 Top Swing Trade Picks for Subscribers- Jan 20, 2025 January 20, 2025 Gold Trends and Insights- Subscriber Report, Link CorrectedJanuary 20, 2025 Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets January 15, 2025 Macro Liquidity Trends: Insights on Repo, Treasury Actions, and Market Dynamics January 10, 2025 Withholding Taxes Surge – Could This Signal a Market Breakout? January 7, 2025 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
Takachi-1 Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 I keep 10 shares of SKRE (leveraged regional banks inverse) just so it stays in mind. Its turned back up in the last couple days.
DrStool Posted January 23 Author Report Posted January 23 Here's AI's take on the current layout. AI: The chart you provided represents the S&P 500 (ES) on an hourly timeframe, with multiple technical indicators, trendlines, and channels overlaid. Here's a breakdown and some thoughts for day trading purposes: Key Observations: Trend Analysis: The price is trading within an upward-sloping green channel, suggesting an ongoing bullish trend. There are multiple support and resistance levels (marked in red) intersecting the price, indicating areas of interest for potential reversals or breakouts. Moving Averages: Several moving averages (MA50, MA60, etc.) are displayed. It seems that price is consistently above these moving averages, reinforcing the bullish bias. Watch for interactions with these moving averages during intraday pullbacks—they often act as dynamic support/resistance levels. Momentum Indicators: MACD: It appears to be in a consolidation phase after a bullish crossover. Monitor for a potential divergence or renewed momentum. True Strength Indicator (TSI): Suggests a cooling-off period but is still above zero, which generally supports bullish conditions. Fisher Transform: Oscillating at the top, indicating potential overbought conditions. Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance is around 6099.8, with potential challenges as price approaches the upper trendline of the green channel. Support levels exist at 6035.3, 6007.7, and 5932.2, which can be used for stop-loss placement or as potential bounce zones. Volume and Structure: While the chart lacks explicit volume data, the structural movements show a mix of trending phases and consolidations. Expect breakouts when price compresses between key levels. Day Trading Strategy: Trend Continuation: If the price remains within the green channel and above key support (e.g., 6035.3), look for intraday pullbacks to MA or channel support for buying opportunities. Breakout/Breakdown: Watch for a breakout above 6099.8 for a quick momentum trade higher. Conversely, if the price breaks below the lower green channel boundary, shorting opportunities may arise toward the next significant support. Divergence Monitoring: Use the MACD and other momentum indicators to spot divergences (e.g., price making higher highs but indicators weakening). This can signal an impending reversal or consolidation. Risk Management: Place stops just beyond the nearest support/resistance and keep position sizes small to account for the choppiness near heavily traded levels.
Jorma Posted January 23 Report Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: Sitting on the trendline, now at 6077 So essentially AI is deciding what the market average is.
DrStool Posted January 23 Author Report Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Jorma said: So essentially AI is deciding what the market average is. No, that was my reading of the chart.
Recommended Posts