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Posted

As I pointed out yesterday, the degree of extension on hourly oscillators was extreme. That's not just on the one hour bars we normally look at, but all the way out to 5 hour bars. On the other hand, the overnight sleepwalk allowed the oscillators to fall back to the zero line. An upturn from here could be explosive. That's what usually happens when moves start from the neutral zone. 

But if the indicators drop into negative turf, then we could be at the beginning of something far different from the recent straight up norm. We'll just have to see how the first half of today goes. Maybe we'll know something by 2:30 turn time. 

For now, the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows trend spport holding at 6075. If they break that, then we can think about potential reversal. Otherwise, we gotta go up and test the high of 6100 before anything happens. Unlock Market Trends: S&P 500 and Dow Analysis for January 2025

18kh4f 

For perspective, here are the 5 hour bars. 

18khb2

Moron the markets:

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Posted

I keep 10 shares of SKRE (leveraged regional banks inverse) just so it stays in mind.  Its turned back up in the last couple days.

Posted

Here's AI's take on the current layout. 

tvc_c6d30f7996446b7b4ff5220dbb79d538.png

 

AI:

The chart you provided represents the S&P 500 (ES) on an hourly timeframe, with multiple technical indicators, trendlines, and channels overlaid. Here's a breakdown and some thoughts for day trading purposes:

Key Observations:

  1. Trend Analysis:

    • The price is trading within an upward-sloping green channel, suggesting an ongoing bullish trend.
    • There are multiple support and resistance levels (marked in red) intersecting the price, indicating areas of interest for potential reversals or breakouts.
  2. Moving Averages:

    • Several moving averages (MA50, MA60, etc.) are displayed. It seems that price is consistently above these moving averages, reinforcing the bullish bias.
    • Watch for interactions with these moving averages during intraday pullbacks—they often act as dynamic support/resistance levels.
  3. Momentum Indicators:

    • MACD: It appears to be in a consolidation phase after a bullish crossover. Monitor for a potential divergence or renewed momentum.
    • True Strength Indicator (TSI): Suggests a cooling-off period but is still above zero, which generally supports bullish conditions.
    • Fisher Transform: Oscillating at the top, indicating potential overbought conditions.
  4. Support and Resistance:

    • Immediate resistance is around 6099.8, with potential challenges as price approaches the upper trendline of the green channel.
    • Support levels exist at 6035.3, 6007.7, and 5932.2, which can be used for stop-loss placement or as potential bounce zones.
  5. Volume and Structure:

    • While the chart lacks explicit volume data, the structural movements show a mix of trending phases and consolidations. Expect breakouts when price compresses between key levels.

Day Trading Strategy:

  • Trend Continuation: If the price remains within the green channel and above key support (e.g., 6035.3), look for intraday pullbacks to MA or channel support for buying opportunities.

  • Breakout/Breakdown: Watch for a breakout above 6099.8 for a quick momentum trade higher. Conversely, if the price breaks below the lower green channel boundary, shorting opportunities may arise toward the next significant support.

  • Divergence Monitoring: Use the MACD and other momentum indicators to spot divergences (e.g., price making higher highs but indicators weakening). This can signal an impending reversal or consolidation.

  • Risk Management: Place stops just beyond the nearest support/resistance and keep position sizes small to account for the choppiness near heavily traded levels.

Posted

18kj-b

3 minutes ago, Jorma said:

So essentially AI is deciding what the market average is.

No, that was my reading of the chart. 

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