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Posted

Money is flowing to US because of Trump I guess - crypto is booming.

I am very curious to see how the cryptocurrency story will end because anonymous cryptocurrencies, instant transfers, are a threat to the dollar and a way to avoid sanctions.

Posted
1 hour ago, SiP said:

Money is flowing to US because of Trump I guess - crypto is booming.

I am very curious to see how the cryptocurrency story will end because anonymous cryptocurrencies, instant transfers, are a threat to the dollar and a way to avoid sanctions.

Although dollar strength certainly suggests it, I see no evidence of it in the Fed data. 

  

Posted

Could it be that AI turns out to be the most overhyped technology in history? Maybe it won't revolutionize society and ultimately kill the human race. 

Or maybe it will. 

Posted

Just because it can do things really fast, it doesn't seem to know more than the sum total of all human knowledge. Maybe there isn't more to be known. Maybe this is the limit. 

Who the fook knows? 

Posted

Here's its Goldman answers about the market's future.

 

When Will the Rally End?

  1. Fundamental Weakness Emerges:

    • Earnings Disappointments: If corporate earnings fall short of expectations, particularly in key sectors, the rally could stall.
    • Recession Signals: Indicators like inverted yield curves, declining consumer confidence, or slowing job growth could dampen market enthusiasm.
    • Weak Economic Data: A sustained decline in GDP growth, retail sales, or industrial production could trigger profit-taking.
  2. Monetary Policy Tightening:

    • If central banks (e.g., the Federal Reserve) continue or resume tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, higher interest rates can reduce the attractiveness of equities and speculative assets.
    • Markets often price in future rate changes, so even the anticipation of a hawkish shift can end a rally.
  3. Valuation Concerns:

    • If valuations in key indices or sectors become overstretched (e.g., P/E ratios significantly above historical averages), investors may rotate into safer assets or underperforming sectors.
  4. Geopolitical or External Shocks:

    • Events like wars, natural disasters, or unexpected geopolitical conflicts can create risk-off sentiment.
  5. Technical Overextension:

    • If technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show overbought conditions, or if the market breaks key support levels, it could lead to a correction.

What Does the Future Look Like?

The future of the markets will likely depend on the interplay of several factors:

1. Macro Themes:

  • Slower Growth, but Not Recession: Many anal cysts predict a period of slower growth in 2025 as the global economy adjusts to higher rates and fading fiscal stimulus.
  • Inflation Control: If inflation continues to moderate, central banks may pivot to a more accommodative stance, supporting equities.
  • Energy Transition and Innovation: Sectors like green energy, AI, and biotechnology may see strong growth, driving sector-specific rallies.

2. Market Rotation:

  • We may see a rotation into value stocks or defensive sectors (e.g., utilities, healthcare) as growth stocks and speculative assets come under pressure.

3. Risk Management Focus:

  • Diversification and risk management will remain critical. Geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and climate risks may lead to more frequent market disruptions.

4. Technology-Driven Growth:

  • AI, automation, and digital transformation will likely continue to drive market leadership in tech-heavy indices.

5. Retail Investor Influence:

  • Retail investors, empowered by platforms like Robinhood and increased financial literacy, may continue to drive higher volatility and rapid sentiment shifts.

 

Me:

Point number 5 is utter bullshit. Other than the occasional Game Stop episode, retail investors play less of a role in the markets than a pimple on Jerome Powell's ass. Retail investors don't drive volatility, nor sentiment shifts. This is canned Wall Street bullshit. 

Posted

It then added:

My View on the Future:

  • Short-Term: Markets may continue to rise in the short term if inflation data supports a dovish Fed stance, but a correction is always possible, particularly if valuations stretch too far or a geopolitical event triggers risk-off sentiment.
  • Medium-Term: The market may face headwinds from slowing growth and lingering inflationary pressures, leading to more selective rallies in certain sectors like clean energy or AI.
  • Long-Term: The future holds promise for innovation-led growth. Companies and countries that adapt to changing technologies, demographics, and sustainability challenges are poised for success.

The key to navigating the future lies in adaptability: monitoring macro conditions, maintaining a disciplined investment approach, and being prepared for both opportunities and risks. 

Me: My reaction is that if you ask it generalities, it responds with generalized conventional wisdom bullshit. In that respect it is utterly useless. 

But when you give it something specific and highly technical and ask it to analyze it, it does a really good job. Not perfect, it makes mistakes, at least in areas that I have deep expertise, but most of the analysis is really good. 

I have even fed it some of my liquidity data and it has done a really good job of interpretation, analysis, and forward projection. 

Most importantly, it can aggregate disparate data streams. The Fed and Treasury have historically presented key data that needs to be aggregated to be useful, in highly differentiated streams. It does that when it doesn't want the public to see the big picture. This is particularly true of Primary Dealer data. Navigating Market Risks: Insights from Primary Dealer Positions – January 2025

I have taught it to update my most complicated charts, which would normally take me 5-6 hours to do manually. I have needed to simplify the instructions into small sets because the big picture is confusing it and I haven't yet found the perfect instruction. But I can now get the spreadsheet updated in 10 minutes. I expect to be able to instruct it to tabulate all of the data in one instruction soon. That will turn what had been an all day job into something that takes 30 seconds. 

Posted

AIvin is Aivin, pronounced Aye-vin, or Ivan, of course, in case you wuz wonderin. 

Aivin and the Chat Monks. But printed as AIvin. 

Posted

Have you considered that it has access to all your public media and may be regurgitating language and bias knowing it will track with your own?  

I mean, I don't know, but if its smart enough to provide answers that are consistent with your own, perhaps it is smart enough to know it is currying your favor.  Its not inconceivable that it was designed to do that.... or decided to on its own!

Is it smart enough to tell us what to do with all the people it will put out of work?

Posted

Sure, the Fed's been draining about $75 billion per month out of deposits since it started QT. Cause and effect. But that reversed at the bottom in October 2023. From then on investors, traders and dealers created their own liquidity, aided by the raw fuel of US Treasury issuance. That became bank deposits via government spending and repo lending. 

Poetry. 

This has been the crux of my analysis for over two years. The market can and does create its own liquidity when it wants to. 

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Macro Liquidity Trends: Insights on Repo, Treasury Actions, and Market Dynamics

Posted
5 hours ago, potatohead said:

I thought Rule #1 was do not fight the FED.

Maybe we have Rule #1a Do not fight the Treasury and repo markets?

Rule 2a do not fight animal spirits and leverage.

We transitioned to Opposite World 2 years ago.  

The Fed made a mess of that rule when it set up the RRP slush fund. Now that that's pretty much used up, we have the debt ceiling bonanza. When that Kabuki Theater is finished, I suspect that Rule Number One comes back. 

Everything is effed up currently. But trends are discernible in the data if we pay attention. 

Trump Coin and Melania Token. Those are signs. 

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