DrStool Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 8 hours ago, Takachi-1 said: It just seems like there is no consequence to this..... will it ever come to an end? I must admit. The house is good at managing the games and making sure they win. As for the rest of us, cannon fodder. But the smart money takes its cut. Today, the ES has formed a range of 5925-5977, and looks set to run to the top of the range. Then what? If the hourly oscillators manage to turn up from the zero line, that would support a subsequent breakout. If they get stuck where they are, then the market should top out here and head back down. Oscillators dropping below the zero line from current levels or near, would portend a price breakdown. What does Alvin, of Alvin and the Chat Monks (aka ChatGPT) say? Outlook for Today's Market: Trend Analysis: The price seems to be oscillating within a defined channel. A breakout above the green channel resistance (near 5970-5980) could signal further upward momentum. Conversely, breaking below the lower bounds of the channel (near 5920-5940) may indicate bearish sentiment for the day. Key Levels to Watch: Support Levels: 5925, 5900, and 5880 are prominent support zones. If these levels are broken, it could lead to more selling pressure. Resistance Levels: The price is nearing the resistance zone around 5975-5990. A breakout above this area may trigger a rally toward 6025-6035. Indicator Overview: MACD: If it's crossing above the signal line, it suggests bullish momentum. A downward cross may indicate weakening momentum. True Strength Index & Fisher: These oscillators can confirm overbought or Dover Sole conditions. If these indicators are turning up, it signals recovery; if down, they indicate caution. Volatility and Momentum: The Momentum indicator suggests the strength of recent moves. If it's flat or declining, today's moves might consolidate, whereas an uptick indicates strong price movement. Suggested Approach: Monitor breakout or breakdown from the channel for directional cues. Utilize tight stop-losses due to the proximity of critical levels. Pay attention to macroeconomic data or news releases that may influence market behavior during the day. I was curious to see his general take on market news. Interesting, concise summary from leading sources. As of Friday, January 17, 2025, here are the key developments influencing today's stock market: Market Movements: U.S. Stock Futures: Futures indicate a positive opening, with bond yields declining. This follows a previous downturn led by technology stocks. Barron's Asian Markets: Mixed performance observed. China reported a 5% economic growth for 2024, meeting government targets but slowing from the previous year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices rose slightly, while Japan's Nikkei 225 declined by 1%. AP News Corporate Highlights: Apple (AAPL): Shares rose 0.5% in premarket trading, rebounding from a 4% drop on Thursday due to losing market share in China. Barron's Qorvo (QRVO): Surged 7.4% after Starboard Value acquired a 7.7% stake, aiming for changes to improve share price. Barron's Rivian (RIVN): Increased 3.7% after securing a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy to build a new manufacturing facility. Barron's Economic Indicators: Inflation Data: The December consumer-price index showed prices rising 2.9% over the past 12 months, matching forecasts, while core prices were up by a slower-than-feared 3.2%. This led to a rally in both bonds and stocks. WSJ Earnings Reports: Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo posted substantial profit increases, exceeding forecasts. WSJ Regulatory Developments: SEC Rule Change: The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule change allowing stock prices to be quoted in increments of $0.005, effectively introducing half-cent pricing. This aims to reduce costs for investors by narrowing bid-ask spreads. WSJ Investor Sentiment: Despite recent declines in major indexes due to mixed earnings reports and economic data, underlying market strength remains, with several stocks showing buy signals. Investors are advised to monitor key levels and stay informed on macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports. Investor's Business Daily Key Market Developments on January 17, 2025 Barron's These Stocks Are Moving the Most Today: Apple, Qorvo, J.B. Hunt, Rivian, and More Today AP News Stock market today: Asian shares are mixed after China's economy hit its 5% growth target in '24 Today WSJ Get Ready to See Stock Prices in Half-Pennies 120 days ago Sources __________________________________________________ I don't know whether this is awesome or awful. Moron the markets: Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets January 15, 2025 S&P 500’s Critical Crossroads: What Lies Ahead for the Markets? January 13, 2025 Top Swing Trade Picks & Market Insights: Gold, Footwear, and Short-Sale Opportunities – Jan 12, 2025 Gold’s New Year Momentum: Is a Breakout on the Horizon January 10, 2025 Macro Liquidity Trends: Insights on Repo, Treasury Actions, and Market Dynamics January 10, 2025 Withholding Taxes Surge – Could This Signal a Market Breakout? January 7, 2025 Is Gold Approaching a Critical Turning Point? January 2, 2025 Liquidity Trends and Stock Market Insights – Is a Bear Market Imminent? | Download Full Report December 24, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 Just got back from lunch and saw the market launched. So I asked Alvin WTF happened.. Alvin: This morning's breakout in E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) was primarily influenced by the release of December's Producer Price Index (PPI), which indicated a slowdown in inflation. The PPI data showed that inflationary pressures are easing, leading investors to anticipate a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate hikes. This sentiment boosted market confidence, contributing to the upward movement in ES futures. Yahoo Finance Additionally, reports that the incoming Trump administration is considering a gradual implementation of tariff hikes further alleviated market concerns about potential inflationary impacts. This approach suggests a more measured trade policy, which investors interpreted positively, adding to the bullish momentum in the futures market. Yahoo Finance These developments collectively fostered an optimistic market outlook, triggering the breakout observed in ES futures this morning.
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 5 day cycle projection 6000 done. Are we done here? As I noted earlier, when oscillators turn up from around the zero line, it's usually a sign of a big move ahead. The oscillators are now uniformly bullish. S&P 500’s Critical Crossroads: What Lies Ahead for the Markets? January 13, 2025
itiswhatitis Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 28 minutes ago, DrStool said: Just got back from lunch and saw the market launched. So I asked Alvin WTF happened.. Alvin: This morning's breakout in E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) was primarily influenced by the release of December's Producer Price Index (PPI), which indicated a slowdown in inflation. The PPI data showed that inflationary pressures are easing, leading investors to anticipate a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate hikes. This sentiment boosted market confidence, contributing to the upward movement in ES futures. Yahoo Finance Additionally, reports that the incoming Trump administration is considering a gradual implementation of tariff hikes further alleviated market concerns about potential inflationary impacts. This approach suggests a more measured trade policy, which investors interpreted positively, adding to the bullish momentum in the futures market. Yahoo Finance These developments collectively fostered an optimistic market outlook, triggering the breakout observed in ES futures this morning. Did you ask Alvin to make a prediction of when it will end and what the future looks like?
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 Headed for a test of the Jan 6 high, 6-21. Little bitty high base breakout from the overnight pattern measures to 6025
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, itiswhatitis said: Did you ask Alvin to make a prediction of when it will end and what the future looks like? I've asked, but he doesn't do that. He just parrots what's in the newz.
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 41 minutes ago, DrStool said: I've asked, but he doesn't do that. He just parrots what's in the newz. Really generic brokerage answer, like your man at Goldman would give you while holding your hand.
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 This gonna leave a nice red welt next week. Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets
SiP Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 2 hours ago, DrStool said: Just got back from lunch and saw the market launched. So I asked Alvin WTF happened.. Alvin: This morning's breakout in E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) was primarily influenced by the release of December's Producer Price Index (PPI), which indicated a slowdown in inflation. The PPI data showed that inflationary pressures are easing, leading investors to anticipate a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate hikes. This sentiment boosted market confidence, contributing to the upward movement in ES futures. Yahoo Finance Additionally, reports that the incoming Trump administration is considering a gradual implementation of tariff hikes further alleviated market concerns about potential inflationary impacts. This approach suggests a more measured trade policy, which investors interpreted positively, adding to the bullish momentum in the futures market. Yahoo Finance These developments collectively fostered an optimistic market outlook, triggering the breakout observed in ES futures this morning. Everyone has differect Alvin. You also need to know how to ask them. Here is my prompt to ChatGPT "Why are U.S. market indexes such as the S&P500, Nasdaq100 rising today?" and answer The growth in U.S. market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 today can be attributed to several key factors: Strong Economic Data: The Commerce Department reported that housing starts and permits exceeded estimates, indicating a robust housing market. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's report showed higher-than-expected industrial production growth in December. Investor's Business Daily Positive Corporate Earnings: Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, reported substantial fourth-quarter profits, reflecting optimism about the U.S. economy. JPMorgan Chase, for instance, achieved an annual profit of $58.5 billion, the highest ever for a U.S. lender. The Times & The Sunday Times Rebound in Technology Stocks: Tech giants such as Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla saw their stocks rebound after recent declines, contributing to the rise in indices heavily weighted by technology companies. Investor's Business Daily Easing Treasury Yields: A dip in Treasury yields has made equities more attractive, providing a boost to stock prices. AP News These factors combined have led to a positive performance in the U.S. stock markets today.
SiP Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 Will Trump's swearing-in be a classic “buy the rumors, sell the facts”?
SiP Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 Small-cap company profits remain weak. The 12-month earnings per share of companies in the Russell 2000 index fell to US$1.48, close to the lowest level since 2021. At the same time, earnings per share of the S&P 500 rose to a record $2.16, about 46% higher. Since March 2022, when the Fed began raising interest rates, small-cap earnings have fallen 22%. This is due to the fact that approximately 42% of companies in the Russell 2000 index have liquid debt, which is sensitive to changes in interest rates and is reflected in small-cap companies. As a result, around 43% of companies in the Russell 2000 index are unprofitable, a higher percentage than during the 2008 financial crisis. Small-cap companies require lower interest rates.
DrStool Posted January 17 Author Report Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, SiP said: Everyone has differect Alvin. You also need to know how to ask them. Here is my prompt to ChatGPT "Why are U.S. market indexes such as the S&P500, Nasdaq100 rising today?" and answer The growth in U.S. market indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 today can be attributed to several key factors: Strong Economic Data: The Commerce Department reported that housing starts and permits exceeded estimates, indicating a robust housing market. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's report showed higher-than-expected industrial production growth in December. Investor's Business Daily Positive Corporate Earnings: Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, reported substantial fourth-quarter profits, reflecting optimism about the U.S. economy. JPMorgan Chase, for instance, achieved an annual profit of $58.5 billion, the highest ever for a U.S. lender. The Times & The Sunday Times Rebound in Technology Stocks: Tech giants such as Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla saw their stocks rebound after recent declines, contributing to the rise in indices heavily weighted by technology companies. Investor's Business Daily Easing Treasury Yields: A dip in Treasury yields has made equities more attractive, providing a boost to stock prices. AP News These factors combined have led to a positive performance in the U.S. stock markets today. The answers are randomly different. Ask the same question a few minutes apart and it will give a different answer. And yes, if you phrase the question differently, the answer will be different. You can also direct it to the answer you want by asking it to consider different things. I find it amazing that when I simply upload a chart and give it no other information or direction, it does a very good job of correctly analyzing the TA.
SiP Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, DrStool said: The answers are randomly different. Ask the same question a few minutes apart and it will give a different answer. And yes, if you phrase the question differently, the answer will be different. You can also direct it to the answer you want by asking it to consider different things. I find it amazing that when I simply upload a chart and give it no other information or direction, it does a very good job of correctly analyzing the TA. The GPT models (openAI, Claude, Perplexity etc) sucked in the whole internet, including proprietary books, articles, videos, podcasts stealing IP and robbing publishers, authors and millions of creators. There is a legal battle between LLM creators (Large Language models) and owners of rights.
SiP Posted January 17 Report Posted January 17 So I'm not suprised that its a good tool. I has the all knowledge of the mankind. There is even a problem right know - its hard to make them (LLM) better becasue they sucked everything already. So some coders work on the so called syntetic data (LLM generate data).
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