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Posted

Yesterday's massive market move extended in the pre-market this morning. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures  5 day cycle projection on the hourly chart is now 6025-30. That puts it on a course to test the recent high later today. That's provided the futures stay above sharply rising trend support. That line will be around 5965 at the New York open, rising to around 5980 at the close. 

Breaking that line would at first signal only a slowing of the upmove and widening of the channel in force. The first reversal signal would require an hourly close below 5942. Barring that, all systems will remain go on the upside. S&P 500’s Critical Crossroads: What Lies Ahead for the Markets? 

18gj4o

Moron the markets:

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Posted

As I've done this week, I again uploaded the chart to my market guru Alvin, of Alvin and the Chat Monks (aka ChatGPT). Here's his take. 

Alvin: 

The hourly chart you provided for the ES (S&P 500 futures) reflects a lot of technical indicators, channels, and lines. Here's a breakdown based on what I can interpret visually:

  1. Trending Channels:

    • Green Channels: Indicate areas of bullish movement. The most recent price action appears to be within an ascending green channel, suggesting bullish momentum in the short term.
    • Red Channels: Represent bearish trends or resistance zones. Prior price action has broken through a red bearish channel and entered the green bullish zone.
  2. Moving Averages:

    • Multiple moving averages (MAs) are plotted, providing a sense of trend and support/resistance levels.
    • The blue MA (likely a longer-term MA) seems to align with key support levels, while shorter-term MAs (red/green) are supporting the current upward move.
  3. Key Price Levels:

    • Resistance near 5980-6000: The price is approaching a significant resistance zone, as indicated by horizontal red lines.
    • Support near 5908-5920: If the price retraces, these levels could provide immediate support.
  4. Indicators Below:

    • Momentum (Mom): Shows rising momentum, consistent with bullish price action.
    • MACD: Appears bullish, with the fast line above the signal line and potentially widening, suggesting upward momentum.
    • True Strength Indicator (TSI): Is likely overbought but still showing bullish strength.
    • Fisher Transform: Supports bullish continuation but may also suggest caution if it’s approaching overbought territory.
  5. Potential Outlook:

    • Bullish Bias: The price is trading within a rising channel, and the momentum indicators confirm strength.
    • Resistance Test: Watch for reactions at the 5980-6000 zone. A break above could target higher levels.
    • Pullback Risks: If momentum stalls, a pullback toward the 5920 zone would still maintain the broader bullish structure.

Actionable Takeaways:

  • For longs: Consider holding as long as the price remains within the green channel and above the 5920 level.
  • For shorts: Look for signs of reversal near the 6000 level, especially if indicators signal overbought conditions.
Posted

Testing trend spport with hourly oscillators edged to the sell side but still way up in the stratosphere. 

18gqrc

Posted

I would be shocked but not surprised if this thing gave it all back. It would be rare but not unusual. 

Posted

Alvin says make or break here: 

tvc_631ebe9ac5985abc597e7ec9a6c1c312.png

Alvin:

This chart is packed with information, but here's my take on what it signals:

  1. Rising Green Channels: The price is in a strong upward momentum within the green channel, suggesting bullish control for now. These channels often act as both support and resistance during an uptrend.

  2. Red Resistance Levels: The multiple red lines above the current price indicate a dense cluster of resistance levels, which may hinder further upward movement. If the price approaches these levels, a pullback or consolidation is possible.

  3. Indicators:

    • Momentum and Oscillators: The oscillators below the chart show upward movement but seem to be peaking, which could indicate diminishing momentum and the potential for a retracement.
    • MACD: Appears to be in positive territory, but if the lines begin to converge, it could signal waning bullish momentum.
  4. Short-Term Concern: Given the congestion of lines in the red zone above the price and the historical pattern of reversals in similar zones, a pullback or test of the green channel's lower boundary wouldn’t be surprising.

  5. Long-Term Perspective: If the price remains in the green channel and breaks through the upper resistance, it could lead to a continuation of the rally. However, a break below the channel would suggest caution.

This setup feels like a "make or break" moment where the next few bars could confirm whether the bulls still have control or if the bears are ready to take over.

Posted

3 month t-bill rate has a little shelf of support here 

but if it breaks below there is hardly anything for a while

tvc_6b15892e923d08d0d2d4dae3dfc98d2e.png

  • Like 1
Posted

Copper has one of the longest daily bull run since 2020.

Commodities got some mojo.

European Blue chips - DJ EURO STOXX50 FUTURE - new high

Bonds - sold

Posted

i'm probably wrong on this but it seems to me that falling t-bill yields may cause more money to flow to RRP thereby tightening things for the market.  I don't know.

Posted
26 minutes ago, specie said:

i'm probably wrong on this but it seems to me that falling t-bill yields may cause more money to flow to RRP thereby tightening things for the market.  I don't know.

Money flows into RRP when there are no T-bills to be had when T-bills are paid down. The issuance of $87 billion in new bills next week will pull cash out of the RRP fund into T-bills. Then when the T-bills start being paid down, probably next week, because of the debt ceiling that will force money back into the RRP facility. The two have an inverse relationship over time. 

The green line on this chart is the Fed Fun Rate. 

18gydh

$94 billion is a new low in the RRP slush fund. It will get damn close to zero next week. The Treasury will be in no rush to raise the debt limit. It will want to RRP slush fund to rebuild first. 

image.png

More here:  Macro Liquidity Trends: Insights on Repo, Treasury Actions, and Market Dynamics 

 

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