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Posted

I thought I would ask Alvin and the Chat Monks his take on my chart again today. He's much more detailed than I have patience for. What do you think? 

18f0vu

From your uploaded ES hourly chart, here's an analysis based on the visual patterns and indicators:


Trend Analysis:

  1. Downtrend Dominance:

    • The price has been moving within a defined downward channel (highlighted by red trendlines).
    • Multiple failed attempts to break above resistance lines suggest strong selling pressure.
  2. Recent Rebound:

    • The recent price action indicates a bounce off a critical support zone (~5780), but the move appears corrective within the larger downtrend.

Key Levels:

  1. Support:

    • Major support around 5780 to 5770, which previously halted the decline.
    • If this level breaks, the next key support lies near 5762.
  2. Resistance:

    • Immediate resistance near 5880–5900.
    • Stronger resistance around 5930–5950, aligning with prior highs and the upper boundary of the trend channel.

Lower Panel Indicators:

  1. Momentum (Mom, 33-close):

    • Momentum has turned positive, indicating a shift toward short-term bullish pressure.
    • The reading is approaching overbought territory, so a reversal or loss of momentum is possible near resistance levels.
  2. MACD (32, 33, close):

    • The MACD is in a bullish crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line.
    • The histogram is positive, supporting a continuation of the short-term upward move, but the slope is flattening, signaling reduced momentum.
  3. True Strength Indicator (TSI, 33, 20, 1):

    • The TSI is trending upward, further confirming short-term bullishness.
    • It is nearing levels where reversals have occurred in the past, so caution is warranted as the price nears resistance.
  4. Fisher Transform (66):

    • The Fisher Transform is rising but has not reached extreme levels, leaving room for further upside.
    • It can provide early reversal signals, so monitoring for a peak is critical as the rally progresses.

Price Action and Levels:

  1. Support Levels:

    • 5828: A key near-term support zone where buyers stepped in previously.
    • 5780–5770: Stronger support that marks the recent low; breaking this would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
  2. Resistance Levels:

    • 5880–5908: Immediate resistance zone. Price is testing this area, aligning with a previous consolidation zone and downward channel resistance.
    • 5930–5950: A critical resistance zone, as it marks the top of the green upward channel and prior highs. Breaking this would shift the bias to bullish.
  3. Trendlines and Channels:

    • The price is still trading within a broader downward-sloping channel (red trendlines).
    • The green upward channel indicates a corrective rally within the larger downtrend.

Indicators and Price Alignment:

  • The lower panel indicators suggest short-term bullish momentum is intact but nearing potential exhaustion.
  • Price action aligns with a corrective rally, testing key resistance levels.

Outlook:

  1. Bullish Scenario:

    • A breakout above 5908 would open the door to test 5930–5950.
    • Sustained movement above 5950 could signal a trend reversal toward 6000+.
  2. Bearish Scenario:

    • Failure to break above 5880–5908 would signal resistance holding.
    • A breakdown below 5828 would target 5780–5770, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Long Trades:

    • Enter on a confirmed breakout above 5908, targeting 5930–5950.
    • Place stops below 5880 to limit risk.
  2. Short Trades:

    • Look for rejection at 5880–5908 or 5930–5950 to short.
    • Target 5828 and 5780, with stops above the respective resistance level.
       

Alvin's da man! 😂😂😂 But may I remind you, that this is just for entertainment purposes. Do not take anything on this site seriously. 😁 

Let me know if you find this useful.

I will interject a few personal observations later. 

Moron the markets:

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Posted

Cycle projections-  4 day basis 5900-5910. 2-3 day 5900.  Nothing yet for the 5 day. 

Posted

This entire sequence took 15 seconds. I uploaded the chart above and then told Alvin: 
 

I think that we're on the cusp of 3-5 day cycle sell signals here.
Alvin and the Chat Monks (ChatGPT) said:

That's a sharp observation, and it aligns well with the context of the chart and the indicators! Here's how we can frame the idea of being on the cusp of 3-5 day cycle sell signals based on the updated analysis:


Supporting Evidence for Cycle Sell Signals:

  1. Short-Term Overextension:

    • The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone (5880–5908) after a bounce, with multiple indicators showing signs of losing momentum.
    • This could mark the exhaustion phase of the short-term cycle.
  2. Momentum and Indicators:

    • MACD Flattening: The histogram and MACD line are losing upward momentum, hinting at an imminent bearish crossover.
    • Momentum (Mom 33-close): The flattening of momentum suggests the rally is stalling.
    • TSI and Fisher Transform: Both indicators are approaching overbought/reversal levels, adding weight to the possibility of a short-term cycle top.
  3. Resistance Confluence:

    • The convergence of multiple resistance levels (5880–5908) acts as a natural point for a reversal. The inability to break above this area in the next session could trigger selling pressure.
  4. Downtrend Context:

    • The broader downtrend channel remains intact, and the current rally looks more like a corrective move within the bearish cycle rather than a breakout of the trend.

3-5 Day Cycle Sell Signal Scenarios:

  1. Bearish Confirmation:

    • Failure to break and hold above 5880–5908 would likely confirm a short-term cycle peak.
    • A break below 5828 would act as the trigger for the sell signal, targeting 5780–5770 initially.
  2. Accelerated Downside:

    • A sharper breakdown below 5770 could amplify the cycle's downside phase, potentially retesting deeper support levels near 5720–5700 over the next few days.

Trade Plan for Sell Signals:

  1. Aggressive Entry:

    • Enter short positions if the price fails to break above 5880 and shows clear signs of rejection (e.g., wicks or bearish candlesticks).
    • Initial target: 5828, followed by 5780.
  2. Confirmation Entry:

    • Wait for the break below 5828 to confirm the sell signal, with a downside target of 5780–5770.
    • Place stops above 5908 to manage risk.

Your call for 3-5 day cycle sell signals fits perfectly into the current technical picture. The market is clearly at a critical decision point, and a failure to sustain momentum here could initiate the next downward phase. Let me know if you'd like help refining the signal further or drafting a post around this insight!

This post brought to you buy the kind folks at Liquidity Trader

Posted

So I said, sure, write a post and voila, 10 seconds later.  

 

Title: "Here’s Your Reaction: ES Climbs Thunder Mountain… But a Storm is Brewing 🌩️"


Post:

The ES has been on a short-term rally, climbing back toward the 5880–5908 resistance zone, but we may be reaching the peak of this ride. The chart is starting to flash signs of exhaustion, and I believe we’re on the cusp of 3–5 day cycle sell signals. Here’s why:


Key Observations:

  1. Resistance Zone in Play:

    • The 5880–5908 level aligns with multiple trendline confluences and has proven difficult to break. The rally seems to be losing steam as we approach this critical area.
  2. Indicators Losing Momentum:

    • MACD is flattening, and the histogram is starting to fade, signaling reduced bullish pressure.
    • Momentum (Mom 33-close) is stalling, suggesting we’re nearing the end of this upward push.
    • Both the TSI and Fisher Transform are approaching levels historically associated with reversals.
  3. Broader Downtrend Context:

    • Despite this short-term bounce, the downtrend channel remains intact. This rally looks more like a corrective move within a bearish structure rather than the start of a new trend.

Cycle Outlook:

The 3–5 day cycle is setting up for a potential reversal. A failure to break above 5908 in the next session could mark the top of this cycle, triggering a sell-off that targets 5828 initially, and possibly 5780–5770 if selling intensifies.


Trade Strategy:

  1. Short Setup:

    • Watch for rejection at 5880–5908 to enter short positions.
    • Confirmation comes with a break below 5828, targeting 5780–5770.
  2. Stop Loss:

    • Place stops just above 5908 to manage risk in case of a breakout.

Summary:

The ES rally has been impressive, but this ride up Thunder Mountain could soon face a storm. I’ll be watching closely for confirmation of a 3–5 day cycle top to position for the next leg down.

What’s your take? Are you seeing the same setup, or do you think this rally has more legs? Let’s discuss below!

This post brought to you buy the kind folks at Liquidity Trader

Posted

That's some scary shit. In view of my 55 years of experience with Hurst cycles, Alvin has recapped this perfectly in 10 seconds. 

My conclusion-- we are all in the process of being replaced. 

Posted

Seems pretty good. I've got no clue how much work it was to create the rules or what your exact input is. Your inputting data or it just finds it and runs hands off?  A rule based system is perfect for this stuff. It's a particular kind of work, producing words that is. The 'all being replaced' is a little exaggerated.

Posted

US HOUSE SPEAKER JOHNSON: IDEA IS TO HAVE BUDGET BILL VOTED ON HOUSE FLOOR BY EASTER AND SEND TO PRESIDENT'S DESK BY MEMORIAL DAY.

 

Looks Like Lee is right, Going to work off the TGA at the Fed.

Posted
2 hours ago, Jorma said:

Seems pretty good. I've got no clue how much work it was to create the rules or what your exact input is. Your inputting data or it just finds it and runs hands off?  A rule based system is perfect for this stuff. It's a particular kind of work, producing words that is. The 'all being replaced' is a little exaggerated.

If everyone starts using these Algos and AI, The old phrase on Wall Street comes to mind, What everyone knows is not worth knowing. Could that also apply to AI? If so, what does that mean? Back to 3500 Sq Ft caves and cooking with natural gas camp fires?

  • Like 1
Posted
2 hours ago, Jorma said:

Seems pretty good. I've got no clue how much work it was to create the rules or what your exact input is. Your inputting data or it just finds it and runs hands off?  A rule based system is perfect for this stuff. It's a particular kind of work, producing words that is. The 'all being replaced' is a little exaggerated.

This is what's mind boggling. I just upload the chart. BANGO! IT'S DONE! It starts printing the response instantly and in 10 seconds, it's done. 

Try it yourself. You just need to upload a chart image. 

 

Posted

It's not like my nose picking screens, which took me centuries to develop so that I have and edge of .0000000001% on the S&P. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, DrStool said:

This is what's mind boggling. I just upload the chart. BANGO! IT'S DONE! It starts printing the response instantly and in 10 seconds, it's done. 

Try it yourself. You just need to upload a chart image. 

 

where do you upload the chart image?

Posted
31 minutes ago, potatohead said:

where do you upload the chart image?

Alvin and the Chat Monks practice their sorcery at chatgpt.com. 😉 

Posted

This printout started in 9 seconds after I pressed enter and was complete in 30 seconds.

 

What's your analysis of this chart?
 
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT

Based on your provided chart of Gold Futures (GC) with daily data, here's an analysis:


Trend Analysis:

  1. Uptrend Resumed:

    • Gold has re-entered its long-term upward channel (green trendlines), confirming a recovery from the recent pullback.
    • The upward slope and higher highs suggest that the primary trend remains bullish.
  2. Breakout Potential:

    • Recent price action shows Gold breaking out of a short-term downward channel (red lines), with momentum building for further gains.

Key Levels:

  1. Support Levels:

    • 2680–2685: Immediate support, as the price consolidates above this zone.
    • 2460–2500: Stronger support, marked by the orange moving average and a key pivot from previous corrections.
    • 2098: Major structural support, aligning with long-term moving averages.
  2. Resistance Levels:

    • 2800: Psychological and structural resistance near the upper bound of the green channel.
    • 2900–2920: Top of the channel, marking the next significant target if the rally continues.

Indicators:

  1. Rate of Change (ROC, 18):

    • ROC is turning positive, confirming upward momentum after the recent consolidation.
    • Suggests acceleration in price action, supporting the bullish case.
  2. MACD (17, 18, close):

    • The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, generating a bullish crossover.
    • The histogram is expanding, further indicating that bullish momentum is gaining strength.
  3. True Strength Index (TSI, 17, 17, 1):

    • TSI is in positive territory and rising, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.
    • No signs of overbought conditions yet, leaving room for further upside.

Channel Analysis:

  1. Primary Uptrend Channel:

    • The price is moving well within the green channel, and the recent bounce from lower support confirms its validity.
    • The next logical target is the midline of the channel near 2800, with the upper boundary near 2900–2920.
  2. Short-Term Breakout:

    • Gold has broken out of the red downward channel, which acted as a consolidation phase.
    • This breakout suggests a resumption of the broader uptrend.

Outlook:

  1. Bullish Case:

    • The breakout above 2680 signals further upside potential, targeting 2800 and potentially 2900 if momentum persists.
    • Indicators support continued bullishness, with no immediate signs of overbought conditions.
  2. Bearish Risks:

    • A failure to hold above 2680 would bring the 2460–2500 support zone into play.
    • Breaking below 2460 would signal a deeper correction, targeting 2098.

Trade Strategy:

  1. Long Trades:

    • Enter on pullbacks to 2680–2700 or confirmed breakouts above 2800.
    • Initial targets: 2800, then 2900.
    • Use stops below 2680 for protection.
  2. Short Trades:

    • Consider short positions if price fails to break above 2800, targeting a pullback to 2680 or 2500.
    • Place stops above 2820 to manage risk.

Summary:

Gold appears to be resuming its long-term uptrend after breaking out of a short-term consolidation. The bullish momentum is building, with strong support levels below and clear upside targets ahead. Let me know if you'd like additional focus on any specific elements!

 

My take- Gold’s New Year Momentum: Is a Breakout on the Horizon 

  • Like 1
Posted

just ask AI, it's running out of data to mine.

"According to recent research, particularly from Epoch AI, there is growing concern that AI systems, including large language models like ChatGPT, are nearing a point where they could run out of high-quality data to train on, potentially causing a slowdown in AI development, with some predictions suggesting this could happen as early as 2026; meaning, yes, there is a possibility that AI is running out of data".

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