Jump to content

If This Is the Up Phase... 1/9/25

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

Posted

The ES 24 hour S&P futures are trying to come out of a 5 day cycle low. So far, they have little to show for the effort, but the day is young. Clearing 5915 would be the first sign of a successful turn. But then they would face a bigger challenge at 5930. Clearing that would create a nice base breakout that would have a conventional measured move target of 5975.

Trend spport is around 5900 this morning, rising to around 5905 at the end of regular NY trading. If that doesn't hold then a test of the low would be in order. With today being early in a 5 day cycle up phase I wouldn't expect a breakdown today, but by Friday, and the fake jobs report, anything goes.  Withholding Taxes Surge – Could This Signal a Market Breakout?

18cvq-


Moron the markets:

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

  • Replies 19
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Federal withholding tax collections were strong in December. Ongoing strong revenue growth could reduce Treasury supply to give the markets xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

The debt ceiling is the wild card. As long as it remains in place pending a deal between Congress and the Trump administration, Treasury supply will be reduced. Normally the supply reduction is achieved via T-bill paydowns, with that cash going back to the original holders of the bills, including major investors, dealers, and banks. Strong revenue growth could mean months of T-bill paydowns lasting through May and June from the annual March- April tax bulge.

The bottom line from the tax revenue perspective is that it will continue to xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx market trends, potentially in both stocks and bonds for the duration xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in place. Once xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, then the Treasury supply problem will return with a vengeance. Until then, the markets remain in La La Land, where all appears well.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

 

Posted

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold’s recent rally above $2700 has sparked excitement among traders and investors. Could this signal a major shift in long-term trends? Our latest report explores critical resistance levels, potential cycle turn signals, and the implications for mining stocks. With key support levels and momentum indicators in play, January might set the stage for significant moves in gold prices. 📩 Nonsubscribers can click here to access the full report.

Get insider insights into gold’s cycles and what they mean for the market. Access the full analysis and stay ahead of the curve by subscribing now at LiquidityTrader.com.

Stay informed. Stay profitable.

Posted

Remember this? 

Federal tax collection data shows surprising strength – but what does this mean for markets in 2025?

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

December’s spike in federal withholding tax collections reflects broader economic trends that may influence both stock and bond markets. While the numbers indicate resilience, questions remain about how sustainable this growth is and what role the debt ceiling will play in shaping future outcomes. 🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

🔹 By the Numbers:

  • Withheld taxes jumped 13.8% year-over-year by the end of December.
  • Even adjusted for employee compensation inflation, growth remained impressive at 8.8%.
  • Corporate tax collections showed variability – but is this a sign of trouble or just noise?

📈 Charts Show:
Tax collection patterns reveal intriguing cyclical movements. Some trends suggest sustained strength, while others hint at potential shifts ahead.

  • Revenue Growth Cycles – See how recent patterns stack up against historical averages.
  • Short-Term Pullbacks – Are these normal pauses or early warning signs of market retracement?
    🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

💼 What You Should Know:
These tax trends could play a crucial role in shaping market conditions over the coming months. Understanding the underlying drivers could offer key insights – but timing and context are essential.

👉 Curious About What’s Next?
Our premium report dives into the details behind these trends, providing the context and analysis you need to stay informed.

🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

Posted

This might be stretching it, but if I assume a double 5 day cycle, which, if my math is correct, would be 10 days the 5 day cycle projection would be 5755. 

 

Posted

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Discover how macro liquidity trends are shaping the financial markets in 2025. From surging bank deposits to the implications of the Federal Reserve’s QT measures, this report uncovers the forces driving stock and bond markets today. Explore the pivotal role of repo lending, Treasury actions, and money market fund balances in sustaining market momentum—or signaling potential shifts ahead. 

repo.png?resize=716%2C523&ssl=1 

🔗 Ready to stay ahead of the curve? Access exclusive insights and actionable strategies by joining Liquidity Trader.  Sign up now for expert analysis delivered instantly.

📈 Subscribe Today and start making informed decisions in an ever-changing market.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...