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Posted

Don't look now but the market is back near the middle of the trading range it started two months ago. Tough to trade cycles because the dominant cycle looks like a day and a half. Tough to trade spport and resistance because the range edges keep shifting. Then after the late pullback yesterday, they went sideways overnight.

It's tough to guess the next move from here. The operant parameters of the overnight range on the ES 24 hour futures are 5962 to 5989. A breakout either way could lead to a little move.

The next resistance area is around 6015, and the next spport area would be around 5945-50 this afternoon. With the hourly oscillators around the zero line, anything that starts from here could surprise. So if we get to a test of the outer limits either way, there would be a good chance of a move to the outer limits of the 2 month range. 

18b79h

Moron the markets:

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Posted

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Federal withholding tax collections were strong in December. Ongoing strong revenue growth could reduce Treasury supply to give the markets xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

The debt ceiling is the wild card. As long as it remains in place pending a deal between Congress and the Trump administration, Treasury supply will be reduced. Normally the supply reduction is achieved via T-bill paydowns, with that cash going back to the original holders of the bills, including major investors, dealers, and banks. Strong revenue growth could mean months of T-bill paydowns lasting through May and June from the annual March- April tax bulge.

The bottom line from the tax revenue perspective is that it will continue to xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx market trends, potentially in both stocks and bonds for the duration xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in place. Once xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, then the Treasury supply problem will return with a vengeance. Until then, the markets remain in La La Land, where all appears well.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Posted

Federal tax collection data shows surprising strength – but what does this mean for markets in 2025?

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

December’s spike in federal withholding tax collections reflects broader economic trends that may influence both stock and bond markets. While the numbers indicate resilience, questions remain about how sustainable this growth is and what role the debt ceiling will play in shaping future outcomes. 🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

🔹 By the Numbers:

  • Withheld taxes jumped 13.8% year-over-year by the end of December.
  • Even adjusted for employee compensation inflation, growth remained impressive at 8.8%.
  • Corporate tax collections showed variability – but is this a sign of trouble or just noise?

📈 Charts Show:
Tax collection patterns reveal intriguing cyclical movements. Some trends suggest sustained strength, while others hint at potential shifts ahead.

  • Revenue Growth Cycles – See how recent patterns stack up against historical averages.
  • Short-Term Pullbacks – Are these normal pauses or early warning signs of market retracement?
    🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

💼 What You Should Know:
These tax trends could play a crucial role in shaping market conditions over the coming months. Understanding the underlying drivers could offer key insights – but timing and context are essential.

👉 Curious About What’s Next?
Our premium report dives into the details behind these trends, providing the context and analysis you need to stay informed.

🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

Posted

Trump refuses to rule out use of military force to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal

Posted
9 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Trump refuses to rule out use of military force to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal

TRUMP: I WILL CHANGE THE NAME OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GULF OF AMERICA.

Posted

Americans have elected an idiot as president. He will accelerate the process of ruining the US economy and status.

Trump's decisions will show the world that the US does not represent any values. Democracy, capitalism and other words are completely empty and corrupt. Trump will take off the last robes of propaganda and make everything ordinarily obvious.
Many will see through it.

Posted

Meta is changing to X - no more fact-chackers. Let the russian, china etc propaganda be immortal. Bunch of idiots.

Posted

I expect a reign of terror under this clown. I theorized in 2016 that the end result of the first Trump term could be a military schism in the US.  That was put on hold, but I think the odds are better than even now. 

Have a good evening. 

Good news is that my regular medical checkup today doc said all my tests were perfect and BP 120 over 60.  So, I guess I'll be around to see history unfold for a while longer. 

Bonne soiree et bonne chance! 

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