Where Will the Liquidity Come From 12/24/24

[DrStool]

Top Chart Picks for Traders – Download Full Report | Liquidity Trader

Lee Adler Lee's Free Thinking December 30, 2024

Weekly Chart Picks: Long and Short Opportunities for Traders

Happy New Year from Liquidity Trader!

Start your trading year strong with our latest market analysis and chart picks. This week, our screens revealed 133 charts meeting long-term structural buy criteria, while 500 charts hit long-term sell criteria. Notably, this marks two consecutive weeks where nearly one-third of all stocks screened met sell conditions, signaling increased short-selling opportunities as we head into the new year.

Key Highlights:

• Long-Term Buys: 133 stocks met structural buy criteria.
• Long-Term Sells: 500 stocks flagged for structural sell criteria.
• Intermediate Analysis: 132 of the buy setups also matched intermediate buy triggers, while 499 sell setups aligned with intermediate sell signals.
• Short-Term Triggers: 11 short-term buys and 41 short-term sells were identified.

Visual Review Insights:
Upon closer examination, none of the buy setups stood out, while only one sell short presented a viable entry point. Many charts with sell signals have already moved, limiting ideal entry options at this time.

Performance Recap:
Five picks dropped off the list last week. Across all open and closed positions, the list achieved an average gain of 10.1% over an average holding period of 30 days. This is an improvement from the 7.6% gain in the prior week with a 31-day average holding period.

For December, after cutting losses earlier in the month, the average gain stands at 3.7% over a 29-day average holding period.

Download the Full Report:
Subscribers can click to download the full report with charts and analysis of open and new picks.

Non-subscribers, gain access to the full report by clicking here.

Disclaimer:
All chart picks are theoretical, based on technical screens, for informational purposes, and assume cash-based strategies without margin or options. Past performance does not indicate future results.

For detailed insights and ongoing market updates, visit Liquidity Trader.

[specie]

strange, no new thread

[DrStool]

Holiday week. I'm taking time off. 

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection 5095 done. 

[specie]

glad to hear, everybody needs time to recharge

[DrStool]

Self suppository. 
by ChatGPT

Metastock Chart Analysis (HUT) 

Here's the chart you uploaded. Let me break down some key elements:

Observations:

1. Price Action (Bottom Panel)

   • The stock shows a clear uptrend that began around April, peaking in late November/early December.
   • A downward correction is currently underway, with price breaking below several moving averages (MAs).

2. Support & Resistance

   • Support levels appear around $20 and $15, indicated by horizontal lines and moving average confluences.
   • Resistance lies near $25 to $27, where the price recently faced rejection.

3. Indicators (Top Panels)

   • Momentum indicators (like P-ROC and P-Osc) show negative values, signaling weakening momentum and possible continued downside.
   • Rate of Change (ROC) is also negative, suggesting bearish pressure.

4. Moving Averages

   • The shorter MAs (e.g., MA 11.02) are crossing below the longer MAs (e.g., MA 31.06), indicating a potential bearish crossover.
   • However, the long-term MAs (green and purple) suggest the broader trend is still upward.

5. Volume & OBV (On-Balance Volume)

   • The OBV line appears to be declining, suggesting distribution (selling pressure).

Key Takeaways:

• The chart shows near-term bearishness but a long-term bullish trend.
• Critical levels to watch:
  • Support: $20 and $15
  • Resistance: $25 and $27
• A break below $20 could lead to a test of lower levels, while a bounce might retest the $25-$27 zone.

Would you like me to analyze any specific indicator or provide trading insights based on this chart?

4o

 

You said:

I'm thinking of selling short for a short term trade.

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

If you're considering a short-term short trade, let's break down the current signals from the chart:

Bearish Signals Supporting a Short Trade:

1. Price Breakdown

   • The price has broken below several moving averages and is trending downward.
   • Lower highs and lower lows are forming, a classic bearish pattern.

2. Momentum Indicators

   • Negative P-ROC (-21.54) and P-Osc (-15.66) indicate declining momentum and continued downside pressure.
   • The Rate of Change (ROC) also suggests selling pressure is accelerating.

3. Moving Average Crossovers

   • Shorter MAs (e.g., 11.02) are crossing below longer ones (31.06, 20.84), which is a bearish crossover.
   • This often signals a potential continued decline in the short term.

4. Volume Analysis

   • OBV (On-Balance Volume) is trending downward, suggesting distribution or more selling activity than buying.

---

Potential Targets for a Short:

• First Target: Around $20 – psychological and technical support. This could be the first stop for a short trade.
• Second Target: $15 – If $20 breaks, the next significant support lies around $15.

---

Stop-Loss Considerations:

• Stop above $25 – A break above this level would invalidate the short-term bearish pattern and suggest a possible reversal.
• If you want a tighter stop, consider placing it just above $23.50 (recent price rejection).

---

Key Risks to Watch:

• Support at $20 – This level could trigger a bounce, so watch for reversal signals around this price.
• Year-End Volatility – With seasonality and potential for thin trading, market swings can be exaggerated.

---

Strategy Suggestion:

• Entry Point: Current price or a slight rebound near $23 - $24 for a better risk/reward.
• Target: $20 (first), $15 (secondary).
• Stop-Loss: $25 or tighter at $23.50.

[DrStool]

2-3 day cycle projection 5885 overcooked. 

[DrStool]

Topping Patterns? Here Are the Year-End Signals

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader December 30, 2024

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

Cycles – Intermediate cycles are xxxxxx or trending xxxxxx, while short-term cycles are mixed, driven more by year-end market conditions. Earlier indicators pointed to tops in the x and x-xxxxxx month cycles. Although xxxxx targets have been met, cycle indicators remain xxxx, with ample room for xxxxx lows in the 13-week and 6-month timeframes. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Cycle Screening Measures – Last week’s rebound turned the aggregate measure positive, recovering from a recent low that was near the April bottom. The 29-day moving average (MA) remained flat, sitting just below prior cycle lows, aligning with the 6-month cycle low in May. The cumulative line rose slightly but stayed under the 29-day MA, remaining on an intermediate term xxxx signal. New 6-month cycle indicators shifted to a xxxx signal, suggesting a potential cycle xxxx, but year-end seasonality raises doubt. A clearer picture should emerge in the new year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Third Rail – The market is in a short term downtrend channel but still aligns with longer-term uptrend channels. Key support lies between xxxx-xxxx. A break below xxxx would be a head-and-shoulders breakdown targeting xxxx. Downtrend resistance ranges from xxxx to xxxx, while upward resistance appears at xxxx and xxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – Updated projections suggest a market top is forming, with recent highs near the projected peak. A significant drop below xxxx would suggest a long-term cycle top. Indicators reflect a maturing bull market, but a market recovery this week could signal continued upward movement, delaying the peak well into next year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Monthly Chart – The market remains within the center of a narrow uptrend channel. January’s lower boundary is at xxxx, with the upper limit near xxxx. Although momentum is weakening, it remains xxxxxxx, and no xxxx signal has been triggered yet. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

[DrStool]

On the comeback trail this morning with the hourly ES triangulating and a bullish hourly oscillator config signaling a probable move to the upside. 

We'll return to our regularly scheduled daily thread next year. 😊

Happy New Year! 

[SiP]

All the best to all the Stoolies that are here🍾🥂🥳🎉

[DrStool]

Interesting setup.  Break or hold for double bottom.