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Posted

Enjoy the rest of the holiday week. This thread will stay open for anyone who's around and wants to post. 

 

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Short term cycle lows are now due but the 4 week cycle projection allows for another plunge that would crush the uptrend. Iff xxxx holds, the setup would be conducive to a rally. Despite that, weekly swing trade chart screens revealed 3 mining picks that look good.

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Posted

if the 13 week t-bill yield gives way here there is nothing but air underneath.

Everybody and i mean everybody is on the other side of that bet.  Fun Fun Fun

Posted
1 hour ago, specie said:

if the 13 week t-bill yield gives way here there is nothing but air underneath.

Everybody and i mean everybody is on the other side of that bet.  Fun Fun Fun

1876uy

The market leads. The Fed rubber stamps. 

Posted

Yellen: Treasury currently expects to reach the new [debt] limit between January 14 and January 23, at which time it will be necessary for Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures.

 

I think this is her way of saying, Have a wonderful and happy new year!

  • Like 1
Posted

The top 10 companies in the US SP500 index account for as much as 40% of its capitalisation. 7 of these are technology companies.

#Bigtech is sucking in capital from all over the world (capitalisation of amer. stock exchanges is thus at record levels vs. RoW) which strengthens the strength of the dollar.

Rate hikes have not worked through QE.
The Fed partly lost control of monetary policy as companies and consumers (via mortgages) got record cheap debt for many years.

The hikes have not worked.

Moreover, the market seems to be suggesting that the Fed is making a mistake as 10-30 year yields have been rising since the rate cut.

How much longer can high interest rates not work and how much longer will 10-year yields not affect valuations of other assets?

Will Trump, as at the beginning of the previous inauguration, say that the dollar is too strong?

Can the dollar get even stronger?
Will bigtech defend itself against well-deserved demonopolisation?

These are the three key questions for 2025. What about bigtech demonopolisation, what about the dollar, and will interest rates finally start to make their presence felt, thus ending the moment of the US economy doing better?

20241229_122046.jpg

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