Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 12/23/24

[DrStool]

May the holiday week bring all of you many gifts, including especially peace on earth, good will toward men, and one more year when AI doesn't take all the resources and destroy the human race. Amen. 

In today's chart action on the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures bizarro chart, this morning we have a little triangle forming between 5930 and 5950.  Those lines are vectoring toward the Dick Trickle Memorial Point at roughly 5945 at 1 PM ET. A break of the triangle either way should generate a squirt, or it could just trickle out the tip, as is the case when markets lack conviction, and are otherwise preoccupied. 

If it breaks out topside, resistance shows up around 5975-80. If it clears that, next resistance target would be 6025. If the triangle breaks down then look at 5923 for final support. If that breaks, it could easily go all the way back to last week's low. Wouldn't that be fun. 

Some new reports out this morning. 

• Chart Picks Say Merry Christmas December 23, 2024
• S&P 500 Nearing Critical Levels – Is the Bull Market Dead? December 22, 2024

For moron the markets see:

• Gold Market Insights: Key Trends and Projections for This Week and Longer Term December 18, 2024
• Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025 December 17, 2024
• Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market December 8, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

[Jorma]

I can't wait until AI takes over the Fed.

[SiP]

Merry X-Mas

 

Ho ho ho!

[DrStool]

Chart Picks Say Merry Christmas

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader December 23, 2024

Subscribers Only. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

With gratitude for your support, I wish you a Joyeux Noel and Happy New Year from Nice, France!

The screens revealed 33 charts that met minimum long term structural buy criteria last week, and 455 that met minimum long term structural sell criteria. That’s nearly a third of all the stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. It’s a dramatic change that suggests that there will be more opportunities to sell short in the new year. Just not right now. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Of those long-term potential buy setups, just 24 met intermediate term buy side minimum criteria. Of the long-term sells, 317 met intermediate sell criteria. The intermediate buys and sells were screened for corresponding short term triggers. There were 3 short term buys triggered and 18 sells. The reason that there were so few short term sells is that most of the damage had already been done. The next round of sell signals after a rebound or consolidation should be good short sales. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

On visual review I liked none of the buys or sells (sell short). The holiday week is always a good time to take a break anyway.

Meanwhile, 11 picks dropped off the list last week, as shown on the table below. I had recommended 3 to be sold as of the open last week. The rest hit my posted stops. I am placing or maintaining stops on all but 1 of the 6 picks that remain open to begin the holiday week. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Including open picks as of December 20, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 7.6% on average holding period of 31 calendar days. That compares with +7.0% the previous week on an average holding period 30 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

I had culled losing positions earlier in the month. As a result, for December as a whole, including current open picks and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain has been 3.5% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

This system obviously isn’t perfect. The screens have done a good job of finding winners but also too many that turn bad. I continue to tweak the algorithms with the goal of including checks in the screening process that will recognize setups that will not be profitable. However, sometimes good charts end up breaking bad. 😁 Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

[DrStool]

S&P 500 Nearing Critical Levels – Is the Bull Market Dead?

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader December 22, 2024

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

🚨 Weekly Market Insights – Down, But Not Out 🚨

The S&P 500 is approaching a tipping point, and understanding the next move could give you the edge in this volatile market. The latest Technical Trader Weekly report highlights crucial levels and cycle trends you need to watch. Click here to access a risk free trial.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

🔄 Cycles:
The market is flashing signs of topping out. Projections suggest the S&P 500 could hit highs between 6000 and 6200, with the 2-year cycle expected to peak by early 2025. A drop below 5700 could signal the end of the bull market, but a recovery above 6020 could keep the rally alive into next year.

👉 Want to stay ahead of these trends? Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

📊 Cycle Screening Measures:
A short-term low might be around the corner, but the broader outlook is weakening.  While there’s room for a rebound, the widening downside signals suggest deeper corrections ahead.

🔍 Get the latest market insights. Unlock the full analysis now. Try the service risk free for 3 months. 

⚡ Third Rail – Key Levels to Watch:
The S&P 500 recently broke down from a compact top pattern. A break below xxxx could lead to steeper declines, with xxxx being the critical level to watch. However, a move above xxxx opens the door to fresh highs.

🛡️ Protect your investments. Click to access full insights with a 3 month risk free trial.

📅 Long-Term Weekly Chart:

A close below xxxx would likely confirm the market has reached the top of the 3-4 year cycle, signaling a bearish shift. However, staying above xxxx in January could extend the bull market. This aging trend still has potential – if it holds key levels.

💡 Position yourself for the next move. Full report available. Subscribe here, risk free for 3 months. 

📈 Monthly Chart Outlook:
The S&P 500 is pushing near the upper bound of its long-term uptrend, with resistance climbing to xxxx. Support rests at xxxx. If the market stays above xxxx into January, further gains are possible. A break lower than xxxx would trigger broader sell signals.

🚀 Don’t miss out on critical market updates. Subscribe now to access expert analysis risk free for 3 months.

💼 Why Stay on the Sidelines? 
Get exclusive access to professional insights and detailed market breakdowns that give you the upper hand. Click here to unlock full access and stay ahead of market trends. Try the service risk free for 3 months. 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

This summary is produced by AI, for the purpose of search engine optimization (SEO). The analysis, conclusions, charts, and discussion in the subscriber report are entirely and solely the original work product of Lee Adler, derived from raw data and original analysis based on 60 years of market observation and technical charting.  

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

[DrStool]

If the 10 year Treasury yield clears 4.60, the next likely stopping point would be around 4.72. Then after that 5%. Won't that be fun!  Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025

[DrStool]

Hourly cycle oscillators are living on the edge my friends. I wouldn't have it any other way. 😂 S&P 500 Nearing Critical Levels – Is the Bull Market Dead? 

[DrStool]

Fed slush fund now under $100 billion. No mo water in the well, oh no. 

It's a bit shocking considering that there should have been inflows $34 billion in T-bill paydowns last week. Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025

 

[Takachi-1]

Seems like a couple of not so great trends coming together here for the New Year.

[DrStool]

Tell me about it. 

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection 6000 going into Christmas Eve. 

[Jimbo]

WHERE WILL THE LIQUIDITY COME FROM???

Now that the RRP is mostly history.  

I presume the liquidity to plug the budget deficit will mostly come from bank deposits??? 

Or will it come from the bank reserves at the FED.

There is still 3 trillion of these.

Are they next in line to be drawn down????