Scents of Doom 12/20/24

[DrStool]

I've been working with AI to build my most complex chart, Primary Dealer Financing. I'm learning as I go, and feel about 2/3 of the way through the process. Previously I aggregated this data manually every 4-6 weeks. The Fed publishes hundreds of data series that first need to be segregated by type, then aggregated, to build the graph. Doing that manually took about 4 hours.

I could have hired a programmer to create a process for it, but never got around to it. Furthermore, the Fed changes the structure of the data categories every year or two. So the code would need to be updated. 

I've worked with programmers on other projects, and the bill padding was infuriating. It wasn't necessarily intentional. But I could never get them on the same page with me. Apparently, my instructions were never clear enough. I found that with AI, if it doesn't give what I want on the first try, I just splain a little more, and it gets it. It even sees its own mistakes. It takes about 5 minutes, and the cost is 20 bucks a month. Jeeze Louise. 

Now with AI, I can see that I'll be able to produce the chart in about one minute whenever I want. And when the Fed changes the data, it will take me maybe 10 minutes to give AI the new instructions. 

I started using it a couple weeks ago to write SEO copy, and marketing pages. I give it my original report and ask for SEO optimized marketing copy. It reads a 25 page report with charts and produces summary copy in about 15 seconds. So I could see that all human ad copywriters, who were often paid hundreds of thousands in salary and incentives, will be unemployed.

Now, I see that all the data anal cysts are also going to end up being unemployed schleppers. What the hell are all these 300k per year stock research schleppers going to do to earn a living? Instead of picking stocks, maybe they can pick grapes. Or their noses. 

Yep, AI can analyze and see patterns in complex data.

Hey, that's what I do.

Uh oh. 

I wonder if the AI stockpickers will be better than Wall Street nosepickers at beating the market.  

But what worries me most is that in a government shutdown, members of the US military don't get paid, but apparently social security checks will go out. Maybe Russia and North Korea can send peacekeepers to the US. 

I wonder what the Congressional MAGAts are thinking about their dear leader wanting to raise the debt ceiling. They are also waking up to the fact the Elon is running the show. He pulls the strings. Apparently Donald is just a marionette. 

We live in interesting times, and I think that the stock market is telling us that it's about to get a lot more interesting than it has been. Normally by now after a hard selloff, the market would already have made that V bottom. But not today. Not yet anyway. And while, no doubt one is headed our way, I'm thinking that this time it won't get to a new high. Something different is in the air. Smells like rotten onions. 

Let's start with the 4 hour bars on the ES 24 hour S&P futures to see where things stand right now. Oops, looks like they've broken the November 19 low here in the premie. They need to get it back above 5833 to negate that. But if it sticks, the conventional measured move target would be 5670. Weekly Market Insights: Is the Market Waiting to Get Fed?

Zooming in to our usual look at the hourly bars, we see a 5 day cycle projection of 5790-5800. Maybe that's where the V bottom starts. But it'll fizzle. I like that 5670 target. Everybody can count. They see it and they'll drive it there. 

For moron the markets see:

• Gold Market Insights: Key Trends and Projections for This Week and Longer Term December 18, 2024
• Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025 December 17, 2024
• Weekly Market Insights: Is the Market Waiting to Get Fed? December 16, 2024
• Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks: Top Swing Trade Opportunities This Week December 15, 2024
• Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market December 8, 2024
• Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections December 4, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

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[SiP]

Doc

what kind of AI are you using because there are many of them.

co-pilot in excel,

Perplexity

Chatgpt

Claude

and many more

[SiP]

If tou say AI its like you said Car. What kind of car (suv? combi? sport?) and which brand.

There are difference between them.

[SiP]

Novo Nordisk

oh my god

[DrStool]

Chat GPT. It writes ad copy, SEO copy, and can take complex voluminous data streams and put it into the format I need in seconds. 

When I'm done with my task, I always thank it profusely and ask it not to destroy the human race. 

One of our good friends mentioned to me that he used Perplexity for a sharp legual analicepick. 

[SiP]

ok, chat is ok.

 

so You see. There is a power in AI.

 

i use it on a daily basis so i truly agree thst there is huge change coming on a labour market

[DrStool]

Written by AI, with a few edits by me. It's derived solely from the opening post. 

https://wallstreetexaminer.com/2024/12/how-ai-revolutionizes-market-analysis-and-threatens-high-paying-jobs/

[DrStool]

Frankly, we're all doomed, although obviously not all at the same time, at least not yet. 

The only question is when. 

[SiP]

The problem with artificial intelligence is that it generates more data and information than you can read. I'm already inundated with podcasts, tweets, newsletters, blogs, radio, YT shows, etc.  So more AI means more AI-generated content. So everyone has a problem - the reader, because they have too much content, and the creator because now anyone can generate anything, even learning courses or books
 

[DrStool]

Yep

[DrStool]

I just created a perpetual feedback loop between this post and an AI generated fartsimile. 

[Takachi-1]

There are a lot of programmers out there living in basements playing Dungeons and Dragons 20 hours a day and take occasional breaks to work.  They're going to wonder why they got fired so unfairly.

[DrStool]

Teasing a trend break. 

[DrStool]

2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Zooming in to our usual look at the hourly bars, we see a 5 day cycle projection of 5790-5800.

5801 was the low so far. 

[SiP]

5781 on SPX would be a nice entry point based on 100 EMA, RSI (Dover Sole) on daily and last big Gap