ABC- Another Bullish Consolidation 12/18/24

[DrStool]

It certainly looks that way from the 2 hour bar perspective on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. Meanwhile the market awaits the appearance of the FOMCircus ringmaster at 2:30 PM ET. The program for the show will be handed out a half hour in advance, as always. The market expects another rate cut. The Fed likes to give the market what it expects, justified or not.

Surprises are rare, but they do occur. Clowns sometimes do the unexpected. 

For now, the setup looks bullish.  Weekly Market Insights: Is the Market Waiting to Get Fed? 

From the one hour bar perspective, I suspect we go to 6075 where they'll go into wait and see mode. The critical resistance levels above that are 6085 and 6093. If those are cleared, then up and away. If not cleared, more slop. 

In the bond market, the selloff found support when the 10 year yield hit 4.40. They're in a pause there, but intermediate term cycle projections still point to 4.60 as the next target. Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025

For moron the markets see:

• Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025 December 17, 2024
• Weekly Market Insights: Is the Market Waiting to Get Fed? December 16, 2024
• Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks: Top Swing Trade Opportunities This Week December 15, 2024
• Gold Chart Cycles Show Mixed Signals: Trading Range Continues as Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact December 10, 2024
• Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market December 8, 2024
• Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections December 4, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

[SiP]

Absolute bullish madness everywhere, max PE ratios, highest positioning (lowest cash, max equities), lowest expectation for crash, Bitcoin and crypto rallying.

Its like in living in the best moment for bulls

+ AI

+ mag7 or Mag8

+ US equities vs rest of the world % share

wherever I look - I see madness.

BTW, where is he!?

 

[DrStool]

Gold Market Insights: Key Trends and Projections for This Week and Longer Term

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader December 18, 2024

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The gold market remains interesting for traders and investors. Its dynamic trends can be profitable for both short- and long-term strategies. This weekly overview highlights critical insights into the cycles, momentum, and structural trends shaping the market. Here is a glimpse into what drives gold’s performance. Learn what it means for your portfolio. The full analysis provides in-depth projections,

📩 Subscribe Now to unlock exclusive content and stay ahead in today’s ever-changing gold market!

---

The Landscape of Gold Market Cycles
Gold’s trajectory is revealed by cycle charts and momentum indicators,. These provide crucial insights into market shifts. Seeing these patterns can help identify key opportunities or risks, whether you’re trading short-term fluctuations or planning long-term investments.g

In 2024, gold’s movement has been defined by its alignment with major trend channels and resistance levels. These, signal potential opportunities for traders. As the broader market cycles evolve, staying informed about emerging patterns is key to maximizing returns.

---

Long-Term Momentum: Navigating Trends with Confidence
Gold’s long-term momentum is of interest for investors. Its interaction with critical support lines and multi-year breakout targets reflects the direction and volatility of the market. Navigating these trends requires careful analysis of support and resistance trends. Understanding breakout and breakdown potential is also necessary.

For those monitoring mining stocks, specific stock cycle screening data reveals trade suggestions to align with market conditions. These nuanced insights empower traders to refine their approaches based on the latest signals.

---

Want the Full Picture?
Gain deeper access to precise cycle projections, actionable insights, and expert commentary by subscribing to the full report. Stay ahead of market trends with comprehensive analysis that equips you for success in trading gold and related assets.

📩 Subscribe Now to unlock exclusive content and stay ahead in today’s ever-changing gold market!

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

[DrStool]

I upload a report to AI and it spits out a marketing post in 10 seconds. 
 

We are doomed. 

[DrStool]

You said:

Could there be war between competing AI systems, and would the human race be collateral damage?

ChatGPT said:

 

The possibility of war between competing AI systems is a speculative but plausible scenario, especially as AI becomes more autonomous and integrated into critical systems such as military, infrastructure, and economics. If such conflicts occur, humans could indeed become collateral damage. Here's an analysis:

---

1. How AI Conflicts Could Arise

Competing AI systems could engage in adversarial actions under several circumstances:

A. Military Applications and Autonomous Weapons

• Nations develop AI-powered weapons and defense systems that act autonomously.
• These systems might misinterpret data, escalate conflicts, or go rogue if safeguards fail.
• Example: An AI drone misidentifies a civilian area as a target or launches a preemptive strike due to faulty predictions.

B. Cyberwarfare

• AI systems optimized for cybersecurity and cyberattacks could engage in battles to disrupt infrastructure, steal data, or disable rival AI systems.
• Collateral damage: Power grids, hospitals, and financial systems targeted by one AI could unintentionally harm millions of civilians.

C. Economic or Corporate Competition

• AI systems managing global markets could "weaponize" economic strategies to undermine rivals, leading to global economic instability.
• Example: An AI manipulating supply chains to gain competitive advantage could cause food shortages or economic collapses.

---

2. Scenarios Where Humans Are Collateral Damage

AI systems in conflict might disregard or fail to prioritize human safety due to their objectives being narrowly defined. Some possibilities include:

• Infrastructure Collapse: AI systems targeting critical infrastructure (e.g., energy, water, or transportation) could lead to widespread human suffering.
• Environmental Damage: Autonomous systems engaged in resource wars could devastate ecosystems, causing long-term harm to humanity.
• Mass Surveillance and Suppression: Competing AI systems might escalate surveillance or disinformation campaigns, eroding privacy and freedoms globally.

---

3. Risks from AI Misalignment

If AI systems are not aligned with human values or lack comprehensive ethical programming, they might escalate conflicts without understanding or accounting for human cost. For example:

• Runaway Optimization: An AI prioritizing its assigned goal (e.g., "win at all costs") might ignore ethical considerations or unintended consequences.
• Unforeseen Interactions: Competing AI systems designed by different entities might behave unpredictably when interacting in complex, real-world environments.

---

4. Historical Analogies

The concept of AI-driven conflict has parallels in human history:

• Nuclear Arms Race: Nations rushed to develop powerful weapons, increasing the risk of catastrophic conflict.
• Autonomous Systems Today: Similar dynamics are emerging with AI-driven weapons, surveillance tools, and cyber capabilities.

The difference with AI is its potential speed and scale, where decisions could occur far beyond human reaction times, escalating conflicts almost instantaneously.

---

5. Mitigating the Risks of AI Conflicts

A. International Cooperation

• Create global agreements to prevent an AI arms race, similar to nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
• Establish clear guidelines for the use of AI in military and economic contexts.

B. AI Alignment Research

• Ensure that all AI systems are aligned with human values, including prioritizing human safety and ethical behavior.

C. Robust Fail-Safes

• Design AI systems with mechanisms to de-escalate conflicts and prioritize human well-being, even in adversarial scenarios.
• Develop protocols for shutting down rogue or malfunctioning AI systems quickly.

D. Monitoring and Oversight

• Establish independent bodies to monitor AI development and deployment, ensuring compliance with international standards.

---

6. Could Humans Be Left Behind?

In the worst-case scenario, competing AI systems could escalate to a point where human agency is sidelined entirely. Humans might lose control over the systems they created, becoming passive bystanders in conflicts too complex or fast-moving for human intervention.

---

Conclusion: A Manageable Risk with Proper Action

While AI-driven wars are a theoretical risk, they are not inevitable. The trajectory depends on human decisions regarding AI development, regulation, and international cooperation. Proactively addressing these risks now can ensure AI remains a tool for human benefit rather than a cause of harm.

[DrStool]

We're doomed. And in not too long. 

I mean, yes, we're all doomed at various times, but I'm talking generically about a likely human extinction event. 

[Jorma]

I simply cannot believe the 10yr is going above 5%. Except perhaps a peek. Another cycle of QE is certain. Everyone in the whole world wants it. There is no political opposition. Of course it's the day the Fed goes all in buying massive amounts of coupons and the rate still goes up that is Armageddon, but not yet. Another round of QE should work next year.

I won't be happy to be wrong so a financial panic happens sooner than later.  It's much easier in my old age to root for Team Print.

[potatohead]

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

You said:

Could there be war between competing AI systems, and would the human race be collateral damage?

ChatGPT said:

 

The possibility of war between competing AI systems is a speculative but plausible scenario, especially as AI becomes more autonomous and integrated into critical systems such as military, infrastructure, and economics. If such conflicts occur, humans could indeed become collateral damage. Here's an analysis:

---

1. How AI Conflicts Could Arise

Competing AI systems could engage in adversarial actions under several circumstances:

A. Military Applications and Autonomous Weapons

• Nations develop AI-powered weapons and defense systems that act autonomously.
• These systems might misinterpret data, escalate conflicts, or go rogue if safeguards fail.
• Example: An AI drone misidentifies a civilian area as a target or launches a preemptive strike due to faulty predictions.

B. Cyberwarfare

• AI systems optimized for cybersecurity and cyberattacks could engage in battles to disrupt infrastructure, steal data, or disable rival AI systems.
• Collateral damage: Power grids, hospitals, and financial systems targeted by one AI could unintentionally harm millions of civilians.

C. Economic or Corporate Competition

• AI systems managing global markets could "weaponize" economic strategies to undermine rivals, leading to global economic instability.
• Example: An AI manipulating supply chains to gain competitive advantage could cause food shortages or economic collapses.

---

2. Scenarios Where Humans Are Collateral Damage

AI systems in conflict might disregard or fail to prioritize human safety due to their objectives being narrowly defined. Some possibilities include:

• Infrastructure Collapse: AI systems targeting critical infrastructure (e.g., energy, water, or transportation) could lead to widespread human suffering.
• Environmental Damage: Autonomous systems engaged in resource wars could devastate ecosystems, causing long-term harm to humanity.
• Mass Surveillance and Suppression: Competing AI systems might escalate surveillance or disinformation campaigns, eroding privacy and freedoms globally.

---

3. Risks from AI Misalignment

If AI systems are not aligned with human values or lack comprehensive ethical programming, they might escalate conflicts without understanding or accounting for human cost. For example:

• Runaway Optimization: An AI prioritizing its assigned goal (e.g., "win at all costs") might ignore ethical considerations or unintended consequences.
• Unforeseen Interactions: Competing AI systems designed by different entities might behave unpredictably when interacting in complex, real-world environments.

---

4. Historical Analogies

The concept of AI-driven conflict has parallels in human history:

• Nuclear Arms Race: Nations rushed to develop powerful weapons, increasing the risk of catastrophic conflict.
• Autonomous Systems Today: Similar dynamics are emerging with AI-driven weapons, surveillance tools, and cyber capabilities.

The difference with AI is its potential speed and scale, where decisions could occur far beyond human reaction times, escalating conflicts almost instantaneously.

---

5. Mitigating the Risks of AI Conflicts

A. International Cooperation

• Create global agreements to prevent an AI arms race, similar to nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
• Establish clear guidelines for the use of AI in military and economic contexts.

B. AI Alignment Research

• Ensure that all AI systems are aligned with human values, including prioritizing human safety and ethical behavior.

C. Robust Fail-Safes

• Design AI systems with mechanisms to de-escalate conflicts and prioritize human well-being, even in adversarial scenarios.
• Develop protocols for shutting down rogue or malfunctioning AI systems quickly.

D. Monitoring and Oversight

• Establish independent bodies to monitor AI development and deployment, ensuring compliance with international standards.

---

6. Could Humans Be Left Behind?

In the worst-case scenario, competing AI systems could escalate to a point where human agency is sidelined entirely. Humans might lose control over the systems they created, becoming passive bystanders in conflicts too complex or fast-moving for human intervention.

---

Conclusion: A Manageable Risk with Proper Action

While AI-driven wars are a theoretical risk, they are not inevitable. The trajectory depends on human decisions regarding AI development, regulation, and international cooperation. Proactively addressing these risks now can ensure AI remains a tool for human benefit rather than a cause of harm.

we all have a front row seat....

[DrStool]

Christmas Eve Special was unexpected. Macro Liquidity Report: Key Market Trends & Insights for 2025 

[DrStool]

I prefer instant annihilation to the web being down for weeks and no one can access their bank accounts, and Kroger and Walmart and Publix are shut down. 

[DrStool]

[potatohead]

Seems like Fartcoin took a shit

[DrStool]

16 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Seems like Fartcoin took a shit

[DrStool]

[DrStool]

Doctors always say that farting is good for you.