Dick Is In- 12/13/24

[DrStool]

Dick aka Richie Allen has finally been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.  

10 hours ago, Jorma said:

it's always sort of tempting to look for a major upset from way out there in right field or even Sheffield Ave. Dick Allen hit some out there by the way. Some say nobody ever hit the ball harder. He finally made the HOF

I was 13 when he came up as a rookie, and was a regular at Connie Mack Stadium for the whole time I was growing up. He was my favorite player, a hero in the eyes of us kids. Too bad so many older fans were assholes. Was it racial, partly, sure, but Phillies fans were brutal to Del Ennis and Mike Schmidt too. It's a tough town on the great ones. If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere. 

But as for Allen, the distance he hit balls was simply incomparable. And he was clutch.  The baseball writers who blackballed him for years should be ashamed of themselves. The old timers committees who ignored him for years should be ashamed. Kudos to those today who finally gave this great hitter the recognition he was due. 

Speaking of long balls, that brings me to the stock market today. No question, this market is way, way outta here. How long? The rooftops on the other side of Somerset Street.  As for Sheffield Avenue, not unless the Phillies were playing the Cubs. 😉

Overnight, the ES 24 hour S&P futures fouled off a couple pitches, and now is headed back up. Targets could be 6085, or a test of yesterday's high at 6093. The 5 day cycle projection is 6095. Yesterday's high was close enough. On the other hand, if they clear 6085, there's a good chance of getting to 6100. And if that's cleared, then the pattern of the past week would become a base for a measured move to 6165. Stock Cycles Point Upward but High Due Soon with S&P Near Projections – Technical Trader Report

To get anything going on the downside, they would need to start by breaking the uptrend line at 6055.  


For moron the markets see:

• Gold Chart Cycles Show Mixed Signals: Trading Range Continues as Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact December 10, 2024
• Stock Cycles Point Upward but High Due Soon with S&P Near Projections – Technical Trader Report December 9, 2024
• Technical Stock Screens Reveal- 2 Buys and 2 Short Sale Picks This Week December 9, 2024
• Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market December 8, 2024
• Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections
•  December 4, 2024
• Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential December 3, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

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[DrStool]

In the Treasury market, the 10 year yield looks like it is winding up for a breakout. Yield breakout rhymes with price crack.  Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market 

 

[DrStool]

Just when the chart looked perfect for gold, suddenly it does a plotz. I'm not worried, yet. But if it drops below 2660 today, I'll start worrying.  Gold Chart Cycles Show Mixed Signals: Trading Range Continues as Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact 

[Takachi-1]

FWIW, from consolidating all the data from the 2 great living cycle theorists I read, I'm looking for gold to hit that 2460 target and whopsaw from there into 2025.  Thirty years of watching gold is about to be rewarded, JMHO.  Will the miners be rewarded commensurately, thats the $64,000 question.  

 

[DrStool]

Is putting greedy billionaire and right wing media host, and Trump nepot psychopaths in charge of cabinet and other  government departments bullish? What about firing 30% of the Federal workforce? Cutting social security in half, or eliminating it for Democrats? Bullish? 

What about dropping out of NATO and putting Europe, especially smaller former Soviet and Russian vassal states, at the mercy of Putin? Bullish for sure, right? 

Your thoughts? 

 

[DrStool]

The red channel was apparently drawn correctly. 

[DrStool]

Now we can almost pancake another one right on top of that one. 

[DrStool]

5 day cycle projection, 6000

 

[specie]

The collapse in 3 month t-bill rates is almost unmentioned in officialdom as much as the things in the air in NJ

[DrStool]

44 minutes ago, specie said:

The collapse in 3 month t-bill rates is almost unmentioned in officialdom as much as the things in the air in NJ

Interesting that it preceded the beginning of the T-bill paydowns. I have to wonder if rate strategists watch the level of Treasury cash. It's been $100 billion or so above target for weeks, so it was probably apparent to some that the T-bill paydowns would start early. I'd have to test that with a chart.  

[specie]

i've heard that what helped humans develop is pattern recognition.  Many these days choose to ignore it.

[DrStool]

Affirmative. 

[DrStool]

Rates were stable for 4 weeks after the Fed last cut one. At the end of November Treasury cash was $80 billion above target and certain people knew that Treasury had blockbuster revenue in November.  So they began to buy T-bills more aggressively to lock in that rate before the floor dropped.  Now there's reason to believe that T-bill paydowns will continue for the next 7 months.  

Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections

[Jimbo]

Gold....a chain analysis

1/ Money goes from rrp to treasuries.

2/ US govt gives money to citizens.

3/ Citizens buy stuff from China.

4/ China buys us treasuries.....well...not any more.

5/ China buys gold....as do other CB's.

And gold lives happily ever after....for the moment.

Gold has become a currency substitute and a preferred balance sheet asset for CB's.

It's a high trust asset for a low trust world.

[SiP]

Low supply of papers suggest we would hit 6.666 on May 2025. and that would be the TOP.