Bazaar Patterns- 12/12/24

[DrStool]

That's right, bazaar. The Wall Street Bazaar. It's a cacaphony of sounds and colors and smells, but no bargains. The hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures is certainly bizarre.  Wildly up yesterday. Then... nothing. Now at 6 AM ET, the price sits at the 22 hour MA band. It's an inflection point at this scale.

If it holds, then we should be up, up and away to 6087 and 6092. If it doesn't hold, then maybe we go down a little, but it looks more like a setup for a range. Trend support is coming up first around 6065, then around 6045. Both lines have just a slight rise.  Stock Cycles Point Upward but High Due Soon with S&P Near Projections – Technical Trader Report

Meanwhile, big T-bill paydowns mean that there will be excess cash sloshing around to find its way into stocks and bonds at the margin. There's enough for some help with the mid month Treasury coupon issue, but so far, bonds are on the outs. Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market

The 10 year yield is once again rising in its uptrend channel after a textbook turn off the lower channel line accompanied with a nice upturn in cycle oscillators. 

Talk about textbook bullish, this is gold. Gold Chart Cycles Show Mixed Signals: Trading Range Continues as Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact

For moron the markets see:

• Gold Chart Cycles Show Mixed Signals: Trading Range Continues as Long-Term Uptrend Remains Intact December 10, 2024
• Stock Cycles Point Upward but High Due Soon with S&P Near Projections – Technical Trader Report December 9, 2024
• Technical Stock Screens Reveal- 2 Buys and 2 Short Sale Picks This Week December 9, 2024
• Stock Market Outlook: Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market December 8, 2024
• Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections
•  December 4, 2024
• Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential December 3, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

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[DrStool]

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/1867194095510356471

[potatohead]

2 hours ago, DrStool said:

https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/1867194095510356471

Does the coin shoot off diarrhea as a dividend?

[DrStool]

Weak bond auction. Whoda thunk.  Extreme Valuations, Liquidity Growth, and the Road to the Next Bear Market 

 

[DrStool]

Meanwhile, the Treasury is has been flooding the market with cash via T-bill paydowns. Why? Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections

[Jorma]

It occurred to me that it's  shame the Coin Guys numerology didn't work out. I never understood it or tried to but it's always sort of tempting to look for a major upset from way out there in right field or even Sheffield Ave. Dick Allen hit some out there by the way. Some say nobody ever hit the ball harder. He finally made the HOF