Stock Market on the Brink 12/6/24

[DrStool]

The hourly ES 24 hour S&P futures chart is on the brink of a trend break at 6073 as of 6 AM ET this morning. If it breaks, the next trend spport line would be 6061. However, that's all mostly a random noise zone. 6032 is more important. If they stay above that, then nothing has happened yet. Just a little pullback, early in the morning. Top Stock Charts: This Week’s Insights

Yesterday the ES almost nailed the 5 day cycle projection of 6095. They need to clear that to start another upleg . One caveat here is that if the ES holds at 6072 and hourly oscillators hold in the vicinity of the zero line, then the next upleg should be explosive. But the same potential exists on the downside, if the market first consolidates around here and then subsequently breaks. Any time the oscillators hover near the zero line for several bars, and then break or head back up, it usually is a sign that a big move is coming. Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns

For moron the markets see:

• Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections December 4, 2024
• Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential December 3, 2024
• Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns December 2, 2024
• Warning Signs: Are Primary Dealers Indicating a Market Top? December 2, 2024
• Top Stock Charts: This Week’s Insights December 1, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024

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[DrStool]

In crypto, there are still no intermediate or short term cycle projections much above 100k for BTC. That's after yesterday's wild 10% swings where it looked like BTC might go straight to a million. For now, trend support is around 95,000. The only chance of beginning a reversal is if that breaks. If it holds, the daily cycle oscillators are in position to signal another big surge on the next upturn. 

On the other hand, if 91,000 breaks, the next target would be support lines around 84k. Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential

 

[DrStool]

In FX, the EUR/USD has set up a nice potential short term bottom pattern. It needs to clear 1.06 to complete. The measured move target would be 1.08.  That's also an area of major resistance. Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential

[DrStool]

Gold has been working its way toward the tip of a triangle. When they get this far along, the tendency is to trickle out. Or when there is a trendline break, the move is short lived. 

The bigger pattern is a beautiful head and shoulders. If they take out 2564, they could rock down to 2500 in a heartbeat. On the other hand, if 2625 holds, odds would favor the next big move being to the upside. Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential

 

[DrStool]

4.17 is a moment of truth on the 10 year Treasury yield. Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections 

But meanwhile we have another record low in the Fed's Deferred QE, Strategic Cash Reserve RRP Slush Fund (DQSCRRRPSF- pronounced dicksuckersf). The fund has leveled out recently, so to me, this is effective zero. But with plenty of cash in the Treasury account, and the debt ceiling coming back, they've already started paying down T-bills. They're gonna pump up the DQSCRRRPSF until the debt ceiling impasse gets to or beyond the point of detonation and meltdown. Moron that here. Giant Gain in November Withholding Tax Collections

But first, a little hawktua on the big mid month coupon settlement. Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility

[DrStool]

There's your buy signal on the hourly oscillators after the channel test. Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns

[DrStool]

They're still talking about the Fed doing another cut. Unfricking believable. Greedy bastard motherfrickers. 

[DrStool]

Rally stopped in its tracks at the 300 hour MA. Top Stock Charts: This Week’s Insights

 

[DrStool]

Never short a dull market, right? 

[DrStool]

Have a good weak end!

See you Monday! 

[SiP]

Growth in federal income and payroll tax withholding has bounced around much more than usual in the past two months, we believe in large part as a result of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, rather than from movements in the overall U.S. economy. In November, federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted as quickly as the next day to the U.S. Treasury–was an estimated 7.4 percent above the amount from November of a year ago, which is the highest monthly growth rate in more than two years. That follows October’s unusually low growth of 4.1 percent relative to the amount from October 2023. As we posted last month, withholding growth was probably slowed in October in part by the effects of the two hurricanes. We are probably seeing some catching up of remittances in November. Over the two-month October-November period, tax withholding grew by about 5.7 percent above year-ago amounts, pretty centrally located in the range of 5 percent to 7 percent that withholding has grown in most months over the past year and a half. The late Thanksgiving this year, compared to last year, also probably contributed to some higher-than-normal increase in withholding in November.

https://taxtracking.com/federal-tax-withholding-payments-rose-sharply-in-november

[Jimbo]

THE CONTINUOUS VARIABLE DEFAULT GAME 

1/ CVD stands for continuos varaible default....the FED by printing has enabled the US Government to continuosly default on its debt. It completely obviates the need for a "hard" formal  default.  

2/ Gold did really well in 2024....27% rise.  

3/ The defecit is a liquidity drainer and it's not going anywhere.