Today's Stock Market Trends and Levels 12/3/24

[DrStool]

The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures shows the market crawling along the bottom of its short term uptrend channel this morning. It broke the line slightly in the overnight session. It has recovered to the line at 6050 approaching 8 AM ET. That line rises to 6060 at the NY close. The 5 day cycle projection is 6065. Trend resistance also looms at that level at the close. If they hold that line, the uptrend would remain intact at the current pace, and could accelerate, if they clear 6065.  

 

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Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns

Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader December 2, 2024

Cycles

The up phases in cycles from 13 weeks to 10-12 months have strengthened. The only cycle with a projection is the 6 month cycle. It points to a high of xxxx ideally due xxxxxx xxxxxx. A variance of a month or so is normal.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycle Screening Measures

These measures continue to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxx  with 6 month cycle measures suggesting xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail   

The market is moving toward the apex of a wedge pattern at xxxx this week. The lower trendline of the sharpest short term channel rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. If the market is above xxxx on Friday, it’s still a strong uptrend. Clearing that would suggest acceleration toward a quick move to xxxx.  Even if they break the lower line, a short term uptrend would still be in force until there’s a close below xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart

The market is rising mid channel with clearance to xxxx at year end. Channel support rises from xxxx to near xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart

The lower channel bound is at xxxx this month. The upper bound is around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

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On 12/2/2024 at 2:34 PM, DrStool said:

Bitcoin keeps hovering just below 100k, and looks poised to explode. The problem is that cycle projections across intermediate and longer cycle time frames only point to around 95-96 k. And the high base breakout only measured to 94k. Those measures don't support the breakout that everyone expects. 93k and 91 k are important spport lines that BTC bulls don't want to see crossed. 

If BTC drops under 94k, it will mean trouble for the bros.  

In the bond market, the 10 year Treasury yield is headed for a test of the trend channel at 4.15. That should hold. Warning Signs: Are Primary Dealers Indicating a Market Top?

In FX, signs point to an intermediate low in the EUR/USD. 

Gold is testing its uptrend. It needs to clear 2700 to break the short term downtrend. Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential

For moron the markets see:

• Gold’s Trading Cycle Alignment Has Potential December 3, 2024
• Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns December 2, 2024
• Warning Signs: Are Primary Dealers Indicating a Market Top? December 2, 2024
• Top Stock Charts: This Week’s Insights December 1, 2024
• Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024
• Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse November 5, 2024

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[DrStool]

Martial Law Test 

Coming Soon to a Theater Near You

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/south-korean-president-declares-emergency-martial-law

[DrStool]

Will martial law in the US be bullish or bearish? 

[DrStool]

Internment camps and deportation of 12 million illegals. Bullish or bearish for dogs and cats, and the pets of the people who live here? 

FBI, NSA, US Marshalls, US Military, hunting down Democrat politicians and pundits. Should they shoot to kill, or just maim?  Or just lock them up? 

What about 3 million fired Federal Government Workers. Good riddance. Should we deport them to Canada? Let the Liberals there deal with them.  

Ending ACA. Insuring the right of insurance companies to profit. 

It's all good. 

Now let's all grab some popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show. 

 

[Jorma]

22 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Will martial law in the US be bullish or bearish? 

 

It will be very very bearish but lengthen your timeline, up to 10 years. Which we personally don't have to worry about. I'm thankful I've lived in this bubble of the English speaking world which has not seen bloodshed within their borders, except the blitz, from external or internal war for well over a century and a half.  However half the people now want blood. So it goes.

[DrStool]

The arc of history is long and it bends toward the periodic ascendancy of evil. 

[DrStool]

Haven't seen one of these patterns in a while. The Unbalanced 90 Story Construction Crane. Analyzing Short and Long-Term Market Trends and Patterns

[DrStool]

At least S. Korea has some experience with authoritarian government and martial law. They know how to do it. 

We don't. Never had any practice. 

Well, unless you count the Civil War. 

War is never civil though. 

I've always wondered if a martial law declaration in the US would result in a schism in the military, leading to uncivil war of some kind.  

The Russians could send in peacekeepers. 

[DrStool]

The S. Korean thing is like an old drive-in movie, sneak preview.  

 

[potatohead]

15 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The S. Korean thing is like an old drive-in movie, sneak preview.  

 

Sneak Previews....boy do I miss them...I remember going to see Conan the Barbarian and the sneak preview was ET....Maybe this is how the next few years play out?

[DrStool]

2 hour bar perspective. This thing could give up 350 in a heartbeat. 

[DrStool]

S. Korean Parliament votes unanimously to block martial law. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn38321180et?at_ptr_name=twitter&at_format=link&at_link_id=584DCFC8-B192-11EF-BDDD-90B9798A64DA&at_medium=social&at_link_type=web_link&at_bbc_team=editorial&at_campaign=Social_Flow&at_link_origin=BBCBreaking&at_campaign_type=owned 

[DrStool]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn38321180et#player

[DrStool]

This was the worst midnight move since Leonard Tose tried to move the Philadelphia Eagles to Phoenix in the middle of the night. 

[itiswhatitis]

Did not see this posted anywhere yet on the stool
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/art-cashin-wall-street-veteran-215404992.html