DrStool Posted November 22 Report Posted November 22 The ES 24 hour S&P futures are headed for the point of an enlarged triangle, which has formed since a smaller triangle breakout fizzled. That point is around 5925, give or take, next Tuesday. The triangle lines converge there, starting from where they are now at 7 AM ET. The lower line is at 5898. The upper line is at 5950. At the NY close, those lines will be at 5905 and 5948. A breakout either way should trigger a move. But probably not one that would be sustained. There's a 5 day cycle projection of 5975, only 15 points above yesterday's high. Meanwhile all trading between the lines is just noise. Effective Trading Strategies: Buys and Sells This Week For moron the markets see: Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility November 20, 2024 Short-Term Gold Miner Buys for Gold Bull Market November 19, 2024 Effective Trading Strategies: Buys and Sells This Week November 18, 2024 Quiet But Ominous Signs of Early Bull Demise November 17, 2024 Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse November 5, 2024 Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later October 31, 2024 Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit October 21, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted November 22 Author Report Posted November 22 BTC has gone into extreme blowoff mode. Therefore I'm hesitant to give much weight to intermediate cycle projections which now point to at least 105-110 K. The measured move target of the base breakout is in the rear view mirror at 94k. Quiet But Ominous Signs of Early Bull Demise Gold is accelerating off its test of its 100 day MA, and oscillator buy signals. Short-Term Gold Miner Buys for Gold Bull Market The EUR/USD has broken down. It has reached a short term cycle projection of 1.04 but it has broken a huge top pattern with a conventional measured move projection of $0.96. Short-Term Gold Miner Buys for Gold Bull Market In the Treasury market, the 10 year yield has edged below a key short term uptrend channel and is threatening to break a second one. If it drops below 4.337, that would suggest lower yields and higher bond prices in the short run. If 4.337 holds, it would call for maintaining bearish outlook. Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility
DrStool Posted November 22 Author Report Posted November 22 In my gut, I feel that we are very close to the end. I am in doubt about the end of what. The melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will raise sea level by 50 meters if it melts completely. Most of the world's major cities, are a couple of meters above sea level and many are ocean front, e.g. NY, LA, SF San Josed, See Addle.
DrStool Posted November 22 Author Report Posted November 22 The coupon offering for the end of the month has been posted. Net new $145 billion. My forecast estimate was $130 billion. The language used in the quarterly refunding announcement as to whether the Fed's QT is included or not is inscrutable. I misinterpreted it again this month, hence my miss of $15 billion. But either way, this is some bad sheet. It doesn't even count the new T-bills. But that's ok because T-bills are instamoney. Mind blowing supply. Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility
potatohead Posted November 22 Report Posted November 22 1 hour ago, DrStool said: In my gut, I feel that we are very close to the end. I am in doubt about the end of what. The melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will raise sea level by 50 meters if it melts completely. Most of the world's major cities, are a couple of meters above sea level and many are ocean front, e.g. NY, LA, SF San Josed, See Addle. Its all good.
Takachi-1 Posted November 22 Report Posted November 22 take away the strength of dollar discount and gold is up $50 today. Just watching the tape, it doesn't feel right today, things aren't acting. For the first time in a long time, I'm going to go into the weekend with substantially nothing in inventory.
DrStool Posted November 22 Author Report Posted November 22 Good night everybody. Have a nice weak end.
SiP Posted November 22 Report Posted November 22 3 hours ago, DrStool said: In my gut, I feel that we are very close to the end. I am in doubt about the end of what. The melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will raise sea level by 50 meters if it melts completely. Most of the world's major cities, are a couple of meters above sea level and many are ocean front, e.g. NY, LA, SF San Josed, See Addle. You will be in grave first
Takachi-1 Posted November 25 Report Posted November 25 Since 2000 I suspect the same would be true to an even greater extent for silver. It has been said many times, the most profitable paired trade ever is Metals long and miners short.
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