DrStool Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 Every day the market has one or more inflection points. Here in the early morning, we're at one, as the ES 24 hour S&P futures test an hourly uptrend line. Hourly cycle oscillators have dropped to just below the neutral line, and are on the cusp of breaking their smoothers. This could go either way, and the setup could lead to a dramatic move either way. My guess, and it's strictly a guess, is up. However, if it drops below yesterday's low of 5960, then it gets interesante. A calamitous drop all the way to 5950 or so, can't be ruled out. Swing Trade Screen Picks – More Buys and a Few Shorts For moron the markets see: Gold Melts 11/12/24 November 12, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – More Buys and a Few Shorts- Link Corrected November 12, 2024 Here’s Why Lower Treasury Supply Ahead is Bullish or Super Bullish November 11, 2024 3-2-1 Liftoff November 10, 2024 Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse November 5, 2024 Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked November 4, 2024 Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later October 31, 2024 Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit October 21, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 The uptrend in the 10 year Treasury yield remains intact. More importantly, this represents the price collapse that is decimating some very big, very important holders of Treasuries. We don't yet know where the dead bodies are, but they should soon start floating to the surface. Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 The move in BTC is very close to the conventional measured move target and intermediate term cycle projection of 90k. Then what? Gold Melts Meanwhile the melting of gold has an intermediate cycle projection of 2520 and a conventional measured move target of 2440. That's approximately where the 200 day MA is vectoring toward at year end. As our friend Takachi pointed out, this is mostly the mirror of dollar strength. Here's the EUR/USD. Crash in EUR. Naturally I bought a year's worth of EUR at higher prices, but I still earn in USD, so I guess it comes out in the wash. (for those unaware, I have lived in Europe for the past 5 years). The Euro has a cycle projection of 105. But a top breakdown here would point to parity.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 Stretching the target a bit, 93k. Then interstellar space.
potatohead Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 https://x.com/profitsplusid/status/1856734762515476813
potatohead Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 56 minutes ago, potatohead said: https://x.com/profitsplusid/status/1856734762515476813 Lee, Would like your comment to my post. There is another large buyer for Treasuries.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 I'm not sure what to think about it. When you consider that they are offering 25 billion a week in new T-bills right now. Plus 100-125 billion in coupons. Thing is, T-bills are already money. How does this change the equation. They aren't buying coupons. And it seems that the money they create would be geared toward more speculation. I'm doubtful that this will be impactful. We already have out of control speculation. $84 billion a month would matter. $84 billion over a year is barely a rounding error. The bigger question might be how did the specs do in Germany in 1933-37?
Takachi-1 Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 If Bitcoin significantly retraces and Tether is compelled to sell Treauries, is it an out of left field contributor to volatility. I worry about all those ETFs on Bitcoin and what a race to the bottom could start. Can the Plunge Protection Team buy Bitcoin futures to engineer a bottom? I don't know? Nobody thinks about what happens when the rats nest gets kicked.
specie Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 is the fact that Tether holds t-bills and treasuries any different than any hedge fund or bankster black pool? They all use them as the basis of their leverage. How else are you going to get to 20 or 30 times leverage. The extent of rehypothication to increase that even more remains an unknown.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 Pullback stopped right at the trend junction.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 49 minutes ago, Takachi-1 said: If Bitcoin significantly retraces and Tether is compelled to sell Treauries, is it an out of left field contributor to volatility. I worry about all those ETFs on Bitcoin and what a race to the bottom could start. Can the Plunge Protection Team buy Bitcoin futures to engineer a bottom? I don't know? Nobody thinks about what happens when the rats nest gets kicked. It's a maze with no way out.
DrStool Posted November 13 Author Report Posted November 13 3 hours ago, potatohead said: Lee, Would like your comment to my post. There is another large buyer for Treasuries. I've been derelict in not gaining an understanding of crypto in terms of its affect on the stock and bond markets. I can see that a lot of people are making a lot of money from it.
Jorma Posted November 13 Report Posted November 13 Debt based money is moving towards its absurd limit and Crypto is an attempt to augment it.
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