DrStool Posted November 8, 2024 Report Posted November 8, 2024 The rally has paused in the hourly 24 hour S and P futures. The five day cycle is in a flat down phase, in other words, a consolidation. Spport is indicated around 5960. If that holds, we can count on the run to the round number. 6000 here we come. If this little spport level breaks, there's more where that came from around 5950. I don't see the likelihood of that breaking. Although nothing is impossible. If that level does give way, it could waterfall. Major Inflection Point Swing Trade Screen Picks The 10 year Treasury yield has pulled back sharply. Apparently traders see that light supply at mid month, along with plenty of new T-bill collateral for instamoney, so they've been buying the T's. Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit Meanwhile, the Fed's Strategic Deferred QE reserve has dwindled to the danger zone. The debt ceiling will return on Jan 2. If Trump says shut it down, the debt ceiling will stay in place, with enormous consequences for the market. First will be the T-bill paydowns- bullish. But if Trump says he wants to cut taxes immediately, they'll have to suspend the ceiling again. Or maybe they'll let that 800 billion Treasury cash hoard run down first. The direction of the markets will be determined by that charade. Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later I'm wondering where the offsetting spending cuts will come from. Gold is trying to get a foothold this morning from selling that started before derelection. We had plenty of warning. But how will it do from here? Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked Cryptonians are rejoicing as BTC has broken out from a huge high base with a conventional measured move target of 90k. The EUR/USD is trying to regain its footing after a failed intermediate cycle low. If it fails to do so and takes out 106.64, then crash on. For moron the markets see: Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse November 5, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Treading Water November 5, 2024 Major Inflection Point November 4, 2024 Old Gold Uptrend Could Get Smoked November 4, 2024 Primary Dealer Crisis Now, Crisis Later October 31, 2024 Liquidity Measures Show Markets Stretched to the Limit October 21, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
DrStool Posted November 8, 2024 Author Report Posted November 8, 2024 5 day cycle projection now 6010. Major Inflection Point
DrStool Posted November 8, 2024 Author Report Posted November 8, 2024 Final 5 day cycle projection of 5995 has been broken.
DrStool Posted November 8, 2024 Author Report Posted November 8, 2024 Looking at the 2 hour bars, you can see that the base breakout measures to around 6025-50.
DrStool Posted November 10, 2024 Author Report Posted November 10, 2024 3-2-1 Liftoff Lee Adler 2 - Technical Trader November 10, 2024 The election lit the fuse for the market to return to the correct 6 month cycle path after signs of a premature top. We weren’t fooled. We had rightfully questioned those signs and had seen that short term cycle upturns were due. Now it looks like they’re headed a few percent higher. Here’s exactly how much and when to expect it. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
SiP Posted November 10, 2024 Report Posted November 10, 2024 Project 2025 about Fed and monetary policy https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHAPTER-24.pdf
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